Warning Signals for Eruptive Events in Spreading Fires

Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., “wind–fire coupling”—a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind–fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation (e.g., “blowup fires” in forests).Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

The Passing of Print

This paper argues that ephemera is a key instrument of cultural memory, marking the things intended to be forgotten. This important role means that when ephemera survives, whether accidentally or deliberately, it does so despite itself. These survivals, because they evoke all those other objects that have necessarily been forgotten, can be described as uncanny. The paper is divided into three main sections. The first situates ephemera within an uncanny economy of memory and forgetting. The second focuses on ephemera at a particular historical moment, the industrialization of print in the nineteenth century. This section considers the liminal place of newspapers and periodicals in this period, positioned as both provisional media for information as well as objects of record. The third section introduces a new configuration of technologies – scanners, computers, hard disks, monitors, the various connections between them – and considers the conditions under which born-digital ephemera can linger and return. Through this analysis, the paper concludes by considering digital technologies as an apparatus of memory, setting out what is required if we are not to be doubly haunted by the printed ephemera within the digital archive

Interactions between Hofmeister Anions and the Binding Pocket of a Protein

This paper uses the binding pocket of human carbonic anhydrase II (HCAII, EC 4.2.1.1) as a tool to examine the properties of Hofmeister anions that determine (i) where, and how strongly, they associate with concavities on the surfaces of proteins and (ii) how, upon binding, they alter the structure of water within those concavities. Results from X-ray crystallography and isothermal titration calorimetry show that most anions associate with the binding pocket of HCAII by forming inner-sphere ion pairs with the Zn2+ cofactor. In these ion pairs, the free energy of anion–Zn2+ association is inversely proportional to the free energetic cost of anion dehydration; this relationship is consistent with the mechanism of ion pair formation suggested by the “law of matching water affinities”. Iodide and bromide anions also associate with a hydrophobic declivity in the wall of the binding pocket. Molecular dynamics simulations suggest that anions, upon associating with Zn2+, trigger rearrangements of water that extend up to 8 Å away from their surfaces. These findings expand the range of interactions previously thought to occur between ions and proteins by suggesting that (i) weakly hydrated anions can bind complementarily shaped hydrophobic declivities, and that (ii) ion-induced rearrangements of water within protein concavities can (in contrast with similar rearrangements in bulk water) extend well beyond the first hydration shells of the ions that trigger them. This study paints a picture of Hofmeister anions as a set of structurally varied ligands that differ in size, shape, and affinity for water and, thus, in their ability to bind to—and to alter the charge and hydration structure of—polar, nonpolar, and topographically complex concavities on the surfaces of proteins.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Inflammatory Biomarkers in Childhood Arterial Ischemic Stroke: Correlates of Stroke Cause and Recurrence.

Background and purposeAmong children with arterial ischemic stroke (AIS), those with arteriopathy have the highest recurrence risk. We hypothesized that arteriopathy progression is an inflammatory process and that inflammatory biomarkers would predict recurrent AIS.MethodsIn an international study of childhood AIS, we selected cases classified into 1 of the 3 most common childhood AIS causes: definite arteriopathic (n=103), cardioembolic (n=55), or idiopathic (n=78). We measured serum concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A, myeloperoxidase, and tumor necrosis factor-α. We used linear regression to compare analyte concentrations across the subtypes and Cox proportional hazards models to determine predictors of recurrent AIS.ResultsMedian age at index stroke was 8.2 years (interquartile range, 3.6-14.3); serum samples were collected at median 5.5 days post stroke (interquartile range, 3-10 days). In adjusted models (including age, infarct volume, and time to sample collection) with idiopathic as the reference, the cardioembolic (but not arteriopathic) group had higher concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and myeloperoxidase, whereas both cardioembolic and arteriopathic groups had higher serum amyloid A. In the arteriopathic (but not cardioembolic) group, higher high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A predicted recurrent AIS. Children with progressive arteriopathies on follow-up imaging had higher recurrence rates, and a trend toward higher high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, compared with children with stable or improved arteriopathies.ConclusionsAmong children with AIS, specific inflammatory biomarkers correlate with cause and-in the arteriopathy group-risk of stroke recurrence. Interventions targeting inflammation should be considered for pediatric secondary stroke prevention trials

MS disease activity in RESTORE: a randomized 24-week natalizumab treatment interruption study

Objective: RESTORE was a randomized, partially placebo-controlled exploratory study evaluating multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity during a 24-week interruption of natalizumab. Methods: eligible patients were relapse-free through the prior year on natalizumab and had no gadolinium-enhancing lesions on screening brain MRI. Patients were randomized 1:1:2 to continue natalizumab, to switch to placebo, or to receive alternative immunomodulatory therapy (other therapies: IM interferon β-1a [IM IFN-β-1a], glatiramer acetate [GA], or methylprednisolone [MP]). During the 24-week randomized treatment period, patients underwent clinical and MRI assessments every 4 weeks. Results: patients (n = 175) were randomized to natalizumab (n = 45), placebo (n = 42), or other therapies (n = 88: IM IFN-β-1a, n = 17; GA, n = 17; MP, n = 54). Of 167 patients evaluable for efficacy, 49 (29%) had MRI disease activity recurrence: 0/45 (0%) natalizumab, 19/41 (46%) placebo, 1/14 (7%) IM IFN-β-1a, 8/15 (53%) GA, and 21/52 (40%) MP. Relapse occurred in 4% of natalizumab patients and in 15%-29% of patients in the other treatment arms. MRI disease activity recurred starting at 12 weeks (n = 3 at week 12) while relapses were reported as early as 4-8 weeks (n = 2 in weeks 4-8) after the last natalizumab dose. Overall, 50/167 patients (30%), all in placebo or other-therapies groups, restarted natalizumab early because of disease activity. Conclusions: MRI and clinical disease activity recurred in some patients during natalizumab interruption, despite use of other therapies. Classification of evidence: this study provides Class II evidence that for patients with MS taking natalizumab who are relapse-free for 1 year, stopping natalizumab increases the risk of MS relapse or MRI disease activity as compared with continuing natalizumab

Reverberation Mapping of the Kepler-Field AGN KA1858+4850

KA1858+4850 is a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy at redshift 0.078 and is among the brightest active galaxies monitored by the Kepler mission. We have carried out a reverberation mapping campaign designed to measure the broad-line region size and estimate the mass of the black hole in this galaxy. We obtained 74 epochs of spectroscopic data using the Kast Spectrograph at the Lick 3-m telescope from February to November of 2012, and obtained complementary V-band images from five other ground-based telescopes. We measured the H-beta light curve lag with respect to the V-band continuum light curve using both cross-correlation techniques (CCF) and continuum light curve variability modeling with the JAVELIN method, and found rest-frame lags of lag_CCF = 13.53 (+2.03, -2.32) days and lag_JAVELIN = 13.15 (+1.08, -1.00) days. The H-beta root-mean-square line profile has a width of sigma_line = 770 +/- 49 km/s. Combining these two results and assuming a virial scale factor of f = 5.13, we obtained a virial estimate of M_BH = 8.06 (+1.59, -1.72) x 10^6 M_sun for the mass of the central black hole and an Eddington ratio of L/L_Edd ~ 0.2. We also obtained consistent but slightly shorter emission-line lags with respect to the Kepler light curve. Thanks to the Kepler mission, the light curve of KA1858+4850 has among the highest cadences and signal-to-noise ratios ever measured for an active galactic nucleus; thus, our black hole mass measurement will serve as a reference point for relations between black hole mass and continuum variability characteristics in active galactic nuclei

High throughput method for analysis of repeat number for 28 phase variable loci of C. jejuni strain NCTC11168

Mutations in simple sequence repeat tracts are a major mechanism of phase variation in several bacterial species including Campylobacter jejuni. Changes in repeat number of tracts located within the reading frame can produce a high frequency of reversible switches in gene expression between ON and OFF states. The genome of C. jejuni strain NCTC11168 contains 29 loci with polyG/polyC tracts of seven or more repeats. This protocol outlines a method for rapidly determining ON/OFF states of these 28 phase-variable loci in a large number of individual colonies. The method combines a series of multiplex PCR assays with a GeneScan assay and automated extraction of tract length, repeat number and expression state. This high throughput, multiplex assay has utility for detecting shifts in phase variation states within and between populations over time and for exploring the effects of phase variation on adaptation to differing selective pressures. An important output of this assay is combinatorial expression states that cannot be determined by other methods. This method can be adapted to analysis of phase variation in other C. jejuni strains and in a diverse range of bacterial species

Hundreds of variants clustered in genomic loci and biological pathways affect human height

Most common human traits and diseases have a polygenic pattern of inheritance: DNA sequence variants at many genetic loci influence the phenotype. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified more than 600 variants associated with human traits, but these typically explain small fractions of phenotypic variation, raising questions about the use of further studies. Here, using 183,727 individuals, we show that hundreds of genetic variants, in at least 180 loci, influence adult height, a highly heritable and classic polygenic trait. The large number of loci reveals patterns with important implications for genetic studies of common human diseases and traits. First, the 180 loci are not random, but instead are enriched for genes that are connected in biological pathways (P = 0.016) and that underlie skeletal growth defects (P < 0.001). Second, the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant: in 13 of 21 loci containing a known skeletal growth gene, that gene was closest to the associated variant. Third, at least 19 loci have multiple independently associated variants, suggesting that allelic heterogeneity is a frequent feature of polygenic traits, that comprehensive explorations of already-discovered loci should discover additional variants and that an appreciable fraction of associated loci may have been identified. Fourth, associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes, being over-represented among variants that alter amino-acid structure of proteins and expression levels of nearby genes. Our data explain approximately 10% of the phenotypic variation in height, and we estimate that unidentified common variants of similar effect sizes would increase this figure to approximately 16% of phenotypic variation (approximately 20% of heritable variation). Although additional approaches are needed to dissect the genetic architecture of polygenic human traits fully, our findings indicate that GWA studies can identify large numbers of loci that implicate biologically relevant genes and pathways.

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Risk of Recurrent Arterial Ischemic Stroke in Childhood: A Prospective International Study.

Background and purposePublished cohorts of children with arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) in the 1990s to early 2000s reported 5-year cumulative recurrence rates approaching 20%. Since then, utilization of antithrombotic agents for secondary stroke prevention in children has increased. We sought to determine rates and predictors of recurrent stroke in the current era.MethodsThe Vascular Effects of Infection in Pediatric Stroke (VIPS) study enrolled 355 children with AIS at 37 international centers from 2009 to 2014 and followed them prospectively for recurrent stroke. Index and recurrent strokes underwent central review and confirmation, as well as central classification of causes of stroke, including arteriopathies. Other predictors were measured via parental interview or chart review.ResultsOf the 355 children, 354 survived their acute index stroke, and 308 (87%) were treated with an antithrombotic medication. During a median follow-up of 2.0 years (interquartile range, 1.0-3.0), 40 children had a recurrent AIS, and none had a hemorrhagic stroke. The cumulative stroke recurrence rate was 6.8% (95% confidence interval, 4.6%-10%) at 1 month and 12% (8.5%-15%) at 1 year. The sole predictor of recurrence was the presence of an arteriopathy, which increased the risk of recurrence 5-fold when compared with an idiopathic AIS (hazard ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-14). The 1-year recurrence rate was 32% (95% confidence interval, 18%-51%) for moyamoya, 25% (12%-48%) for transient cerebral arteriopathy, and 19% (8.5%-40%) for arterial dissection.ConclusionsChildren with AIS, particularly those with arteriopathy, remain at high risk for recurrent AIS despite increased utilization of antithrombotic agents. Therapies directed at the arteriopathies themselves are needed