Choosing the Field of Study in Post-Secondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?

This paper examines the determinants of the choice of the major when the length of studies is uncertain, by using a framework in which students entering post-secondary education are assumed to anticipate their future earnings. For that purpose, we use French data coming from the 1992 and 1998 Génération surveys collected by the Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur l'Emploi et les Qualifications (CEREQ, Marseille). Our econometric approach is based on a semi-structural three-equations model, which is identified thanks to some exclusion restrictions. We exploit in particular exogenous variations in the earnings returns associated with the majors across the business cycle, in order to identify the causal effect of expected earnings on the probability of choosing a given major. Relying on a three-component mixture distribution, we account for correlation between the unobserved individual-specific terms affecting the preferences for the majors, the unobserved individual-specific factors entering the equation determining the length of studies within each major, and that affecting the labor market earnings equation. Following Arcidiacono and Jones (2003), we use the EM algorithm with a sequential maximization step to produce consistent parameter estimates. Simulating for each given major a 10 percent increase in the expected earnings suggests that expected earnings have a statistically significant but quantitatively small impact on the allocation of students across majors.post-secondary education, major choice, returns to education, EM algorithm

Estimating the Effect of a Retraining Program on the Re-Employment Rate of Displaced Workers

In this paper we estimate by matching techniques the effects of a French retraining program on the reemployment rate of displaced workers. This program, called "Conventions de conversion", was intended to improve reemployment prospects of displaced workers by proposing them retraining and job seeking assistance for a period of six months beginning just after the dismissal. Our empirical analysis is based upon non-experimental data collected by the French Ministry of Labour. Matching estimates show that this program succeeded in increasing the employment rate of trainees by approximately 6 points of percentage in the medium-term, namely in the second and third years after the date of entry into the program. This improvement is essentially due to an increase of their reemployment rate in regular jobs, namely jobs under long-term labour contracts.evaluation, retraining program, displaced workers, matching estimates

The Effect of Part-Time Work on Post-Secondary Educational Attainment: New Evidence from French Data

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the effect of part-time work on postsecondary educational attainment. To do so, we use samples extracted from the French Labor Force Surveys conducted over the years 1992-2002. These samples are restricted to students in initial education following university studies and preparing an Associate, a Bachelor or a Master degree. We estimate probit models with two simultaneous equations accounting for part-time working while studying and for success on the final exam, along with the decision to continue the following year in one of the models. We take the working time into account by drawing in one of the models a distinction between jobs in which more or less than 16 hours are worked per week. We use variations across departements in low-skilled youth unemployment rates and in their interactions with the father's socio-economic status in order to identify the effect of part-time work on educational attainment. Our results suggest a statistically significant and very large detrimental effect of holding a regular part-time job on graduation probability. Still, a complementary analysis shows that working while studying does not have any significant effect on the probability of continuing studies.post-secondary educational attainment, students' labor supply, bivariate Probit models

Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage

We examine the effect of the minimum wage on restaurant prices. We contribute to both the study of economic impact of the minimum wage and to the micro patterns of price stickiness. For that purpose, we use a unique dataset of individual price quotes collected to calculate the Consumer Price Index in France and we estimate a price rigidity model based on a flexible (S; s) rule. We find a positive and significant impact of the minimum wage on prices. The effect of the minimum wage on prices is however very protracted. The aggregate impact estimated with our model takes more than a year to fully pass through to retail prices.price stickiness, minimum wage, inflation, restaurant prices

Social Housing and Location Choices of Immigrants in France

Our study examines the empirical links between social housing policy and location choices of immigrants in France. More specifically, we characterize the main individual and contextual determinants of the probability for immigrants to live in a HLM (habitations à loyer modéré, dwelling with a moderate rent), which is the main public housing policy in France. For that purpose, we use individual information coming from large (one-fourth) extracts of the French population censuses conducted by INSEE (Paris) in 1982, 1990, and 1999. Our estimates show that, in general, migrants live more frequently in social housing than French natives, other observables being equal. In particular, this probability is higher for migrants from Turkey, Morocco, Southeast Asia, Algeria, Tunisia and Sub-Saharan Africa (in descending order). We find also that migrants of all origins live less often in a HLM when the city has plenty of social housing and when the fraction of natives is high.social magnets, migration, social housing

Interfirm Mobility, Wages, and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S.

In this paper, we follow on the seminal work of Altonji and Shakotko (1987) and Topel (1991) and reinvestigate the returns to seniority in the U.S. These papers specify a wage function, in which workers’ wages can change through two channels: (a) returns to their seniority; and (b) returns to their labor market experience. We start from the same wage equation as in previous studies, and, following our theoretical model, we explicitly include a participation-employment equation and an interfirm mobility equation. The employment and mobility decisions define the individual’s experience and seniority. Because experience and seniority are fully endogenized, we introduce into the wage equation a summary of the workers’ entire career and past jobs. The three-equation system is estimated simultaneously using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). For all three education groups that we study, returns to seniority are quite high, even higher than what was previously obtained by Topel. On the other hand, the returns to experience appear to be similar to those previously found in the literature.wage mobility, interfirm mobility, returns to seniority, panel data, Markov Chain, Monte Carlo methods

Econometrics of individual labor market transitions

This survey is devoted to the modelling and the estimation of reduced-form transition models, which have been extensively used and estimated in labor microeconometrics. The first section contains a general presentation of the statistical modelling of such processes using continuous-time (event-history) data. It also presents parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures, and focuses on the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity. The second section deals with the estimation of markovian processes using discrete-time panel observations. Here the main question is whether the discrete-time panel observation of a transition process is generated by a continuous-time homogeneous Markov process. After discussing this problem, we present maximum-likelihood and bayesian procedures for estimating the transition intensity matrix governing the process evolution. Particular attention is paid to the estimation of the continuous-time mover-stayer model, which is the more elementary model of mixed Markov chains

acquisition de la nationalité française: quels effets sur l'accès à l'emploi des immigrés?.

Sur l'ensemble de la période allant de 1968 à 1999, 11% des immigrés présents à deux recensements successifs ont acquis la nationalité française (hors acquisitions par mariage). Ces naturalisations ont baissé légèrement entre 1975 et 1982 pour devenir ensuite de plus en plus nombreuses. Le pays d'origine affecte fortement la probabilité d'acquisition de la nationalité française: les immigrés originaires d'Algérie, du Portugal et de Turquie sont les moins fréquemment naturalisés, par opposition à ceux venus d'Asie du Sud-Est et d'Afrique subsaharienne. De plus, les femmes acquièrent plus souvent que les hommes la nationalité française. La catégorie socioprofessionnelle et le diplôme des individus affectent très sensiblement les chances de naturalisation : ainsi, être inactif ou ouvrier les diminue. L'acquisition de la nationalité française a un impact positif sur l'accès à l'emploi des immigrés. Cette "prime" due a la naturalisation semble profiter particulièrement aux immigrés qui s'insèrent plus difficilement sur le marché du travail, comme les hommes venus d'Afrique subsaharienne et du Maroc ou les femmes venues de Turquie et du Maghreb.nationalité française;immigrés;naturalisation;accès à l'emploi;marché du travail;

Identification of peer effects using group size variation

This paper considers the semiparametric identification of endogenous and exogenous peer effects based on group size variation. We show that Lee (2006)'s linear-in-means model is generically identified, even when all members of the group are not observed. While unnecessary in general, homoskedasticity may be required in special cases to recover all parameters. Extensions to asymmetric responses to peers and binary outcomes are also considered. Once more, most parameters are semiparametrically identified under weak conditions. However, recovering all of them requires more stringent assumptions. Eventually, we bring theoretical evidence that the model is more adapted to small group