The influence of schooling on performance in chess and at the Olympics

AbstractAt the macro-level, it is hard to test the hypothesis that increased schooling in a country will raise labour productivity but sectoral analyses may be tractable. In sports, output is homogenous in that countries’ achievements are measurable in the same way. We examine country performances at the Chess Olympiad and the Olympic Games, contrasting tournaments where players in the first use only their minds but most in the second supply substantial physical effort or work with costly physical capital. Modelling success in either leads to a set of results familiar from sports literature: country performance depends on economic resources, represented by population size and per capita income. Supplementary variables capture over-performance by communist/ former communist countries. We then introduce a measure of average years of schooling. This significantly reduces the role of income, especially in chess. It also takes power away from the ‘communist’ variables, especially at the Olympics. These results suggest that much of any effect from income is mediated through schooling: investment in education is associated with elevated productivity. Increased productivity is observed in both settings, one a knowledge-intensive sub-sector and the other dependent to a significant extent on either raw physical strength or expensive capital input.</jats:p

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

Artificial immune systems

The biological immune system is a robust, complex, adaptive system that defends the body from foreign pathogens. It is able to categorize all cells (or molecules) within the body as self or nonself substances. It does this with the help of a distributed task force that has the intelligence to take action from a local and also a global perspective using its network of chemical messengers for communication. There are two major branches of the immune system. The innate immune system is an unchanging mechanism that detects and destroys certain invading organisms, whilst the adaptive immune system responds to previously unknown foreign cells and builds a response to them that can remain in the body over a long period of time. This remarkable information processing biological system has caught the attention of computer science in recent years

Statistical Metamodeling for Revealing Synergistic Antimicrobial Interactions

Many bacterial pathogens are becoming drug resistant faster than we can develop new antimicrobials. To address this threat in public health, a metamodel antimicrobial cocktail optimization (MACO) scheme is demonstrated for rapid screening of potent antibiotic cocktails using uropathogenic clinical isolates as model systems. With the MACO scheme, only 18 parallel trials were required to determine a potent antimicrobial cocktail out of hundreds of possible combinations. In particular, trimethoprim and gentamicin were identified to work synergistically for inhibiting the bacterial growth. Sensitivity analysis indicated gentamicin functions as a synergist for trimethoprim, and reduces its minimum inhibitory concentration for 40-fold. Validation study also confirmed that the trimethoprim-gentamicin synergistic cocktail effectively inhibited the growths of multiple strains of uropathogenic clinical isolates. With its effectiveness and simplicity, the MACO scheme possesses the potential to serve as a generic platform for identifying synergistic antimicrobial cocktails toward management of bacterial infection in the future

Differentiated transplant derived airway epithelial cell cytokine secretion is not regulated by cyclosporine

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While lung transplantation is an increasingly utilized therapy for advanced lung diseases, chronic rejection in the form of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome (BOS) continues to result in significant allograft dysfunction and patient mortality. Despite correlation of clinical events with eventual development of BOS, the causative pathophysiology remains unknown. Airway epithelial cells within the region of inflammation and fibrosis associated with BOS may have a participatory role.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Transplant derived airway epithelial cells differentiated in air liquid interface culture were treated with IL-1β and/or cyclosporine, after which secretion of cytokines and growth factor and gene expression for markers of epithelial to mesenchymal transition were analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Secretion of IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α, but not TGF-β1, was increased by IL-1β stimulation. In contrast to previous studies using epithelial cells grown in submersion culture, treatment of differentiated cells in ALI culture with cyclosporine did not elicit cytokine or growth factor secretion, and did not alter IL-6, IL-8, or TNF-α production in response to IL-1β treatment. Neither IL-1β nor cyclosporine elicited expression of markers of the epithelial to mesenchymal transition E-cadherin, EDN-fibronectin, and α-smooth muscle actin.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Transplant derived differentiated airway epithelial cell IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α secretion is not regulated by cyclosporine <it>in vitro</it>; these cells thus may participate in local inflammatory responses in the setting of immunosuppression. Further, treatment with IL-1β did not elicit gene expression of markers of epithelial to mesenchymal transition. These data present a model of differentiated airway epithelial cells that may be useful in understanding epithelial participation in airway inflammation and allograft rejection in lung transplantation.</p

Transmission of Avian Influenza A Viruses among Species in an Artificial Barnyard

Waterfowl and shorebirds harbor and shed all hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes of influenza A viruses and interact in nature with a broad range of other avian and mammalian species to which they might transmit such viruses. Estimating the efficiency and importance of such cross-species transmission using epidemiological approaches is difficult. We therefore addressed this question by studying transmission of low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses from infected ducks to other common animals in a quasi-natural laboratory environment designed to mimic a common barnyard. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) recently infected with H5N2 or H7N3 viruses were introduced into a room housing other mallards plus chickens, blackbirds, rats and pigeons, and transmission was assessed by monitoring virus shedding (ducks) or seroconversion (other species) over the following 4 weeks. Additional animals of each species were directly inoculated with virus to characterize the effect of a known exposure. In both barnyard experiments, virus accumulated to high titers in the shared water pool. The H5N2 virus was transmitted from infected ducks to other ducks and chickens in the room either directly or through environmental contamination, but not to rats or blackbirds. Ducks infected with the H7N2 virus transmitted directly or indirectly to all other species present. Chickens and blackbirds directly inoculated with these viruses shed significant amounts of virus and seroconverted; rats and pigeons developed antiviral antibodies, but, except for one pigeon, failed to shed virus

Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ecology of influenza may be more complex than is usually assumed. For example, despite multiple waves in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19, many people in urban locations were apparently unaffected. Were they unexposed, or protected by pre-existing cross-immunity in the first wave, by acquired immunity in later waves, or were their infections asymptomatic?</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We modelled all these possibilities to estimate parameters to best explain patterns of repeat attacks in 24,706 individuals potentially exposed to summer, autumn and winter waves in 12 English populations during the 1918-9 pandemic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Before the summer wave, we estimated that only 52% of persons (95% credibility estimates 41-66%) were susceptible, with the remainder protected by prior immunity. Most people were exposed, as virus transmissibility was high with R₀credibility estimates of 3.10-6.74. Because of prior immunity, estimates of effective R at the start of the summer wave were lower at 1.57-3.96. Only 25-66% of exposed and susceptible persons reported symptoms. After each wave, 33-65% of protected persons became susceptible again before the next wave through waning immunity or antigenic drift. Estimated rates of prior immunity were less in younger populations (19-59%) than in adult populations (38-66%), and tended to lapse more frequently in the young (49-92%) than in adults (34-76%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our model for pandemic influenza in 1918-9 suggests that pre-existing immune protection, presumably induced by prior exposure to seasonal influenza, may have limited the pandemic attack-rate in urban populations, while the waning of that protection likely contributed to recurrence of pandemic waves in exposed cities. In contrast, in isolated populations, pandemic attack rates in 1918-9 were much higher than in cities, presumably because prior immunity was less in populations with infrequent prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Although these conclusions cannot be verified by direct measurements of historical immune mechanisms, our modelling inferences from 1918-9 suggest that the spread of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic has also been limited by immunity from prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Components of that immunity, which are measurable, may be short-lived, and not necessarily correlated with levels of HI antibody.</p

Shrinking wings for ultrasonic pitch production: hyperintense ultra-short-wavelength calls in a new genus of neotropical katydids (Orthoptera: tettigoniidae)

This article reports the discovery of a new genus and three species of predaceous katydid (Insecta: Orthoptera) from Colombia and Ecuador in which males produce the highest frequency ultrasonic calling songs so far recorded from an arthropod. Male katydids sing by rubbing their wings together to attract distant females. Their song frequencies usually range from audio (5 kHz) to low ultrasonic (30 kHz). However, males of Supersonus spp. call females at 115 kHz, 125 kHz, and 150 kHz. Exceeding the human hearing range (50 Hz–20 kHz) by an order of magnitude, these insects also emit their ultrasound at unusually elevated sound pressure levels (SPL). In all three species these calls exceed 110 dB SPL rms re 20 µPa (at 15 cm). Males of Supersonus spp. have unusually reduced forewings (<0.5 mm2). Only the right wing radiates appreciable sound, the left bears the file and does not show a particular resonance. In contrast to most katydids, males of Supersonus spp. position and move their wings during sound production so that the concave aspect of the right wing, underlain by the insect dorsum, forms a contained cavity with sharp resonance. The observed high SPL at extreme carrier frequencies can be explained by wing anatomy, a resonant cavity with a membrane, and cuticle deformation

Correlates of unintended pregnancy among currently pregnant married women in Nepal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women living in every country, irrespective of its development status, have been facing the problem of unintended pregnancy. Unintended pregnancy is an important public health issue in both developing and developed countries because of its negative association with the social and health outcomes for both mothers and children. This study aims to determine the prevalence and the factors influencing unintended pregnancy among currently pregnant married women in Nepal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper reports on data drawn from Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) which is a nationally representative survey. The analysis is restricted to currently pregnant married women at the time of survey. Association between unintended pregnancy and the explanatory variables was assessed in bivariate analysis using Chi-square tests. Logistic regression was used to assess the net effect of several independent variables on unintended pregnancy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>More than two-fifth of the currently pregnant women (41%) reported that their current pregnancy was unintended. The results indicate that age of women, age at first marriage, ideal number of children, religion, exposure to radio and knowledge of family planning methods were key predictors of unintended pregnancy. Experience of unintended pregnancy augments with women's age (odds ratio, 1.11). Similarly, increase in the women's age at first marriage reduces the likelihood of unintended pregnancy (odds ratio, 0.93). Those who were exposed to the radio were less likely (odds ratio, 0.63) to have unintended pregnancy compared to those who were not. Furthermore, those women who had higher level of knowledge about family planning methods were less likely to experience unintended pregnancy (odds ratio, 0.60) compared to those having lower level of knowledge.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>One of the important factors contributing to high level of maternal and infant mortality is unintended pregnancy. Programs should aim to reduce unintended pregnancy by focusing on all these identified factors so that infant and maternal mortality and morbidity as well as the need for abortion are decreased and the overall well-being of the family is maintained and enhanced.</p