Real Options using Markov Chains: an application to Production Capacity Decisions

In this work we address investment decisions using real options. A standard numerical approach for valuing real options is dynamic programming. The basic idea is to establish a discrete-valued lattice of possible future values of the underlying stochastic variable (demand in our case). For most approaches in the literature, the stochastic variable is assumed normally distributed and then approximated by a binomial distribution, resulting in a binomial lattice. In this work, we investigate the use of a sparse Markov chain to model such variable. The Markov approach is expected to perform better since it does not assume any type of distribution for the demand variation, the probability of a variation on the demand value is dependent on the current demand value and thus, no longer constant, and it generalizes the binomial lattice since the latter can be modelled as a Markov chain. We developed a stochastic dynamic programming model that has been implemented both on binomial and Markov models. A numerical example of a production capacity choice problem has been solved and the results obtained show that the investment decisions are different and, as expected the Markov chain approach leads to a better investment policy.Flexible Capacity Investments, Real Options, Markov Chains, Dynamic Programming

Repulsion of an evolving surface on walls with random heights

We consider the motion of a discrete random surface interacting by exclusion with a random wall. The heights of the wall at the sites of $\Z^d$ are i.i.d.\ random variables. Fixed the wall configuration, the dynamics is given by the serial harness process which is not allowed to go below the wall. We study the effect of the distribution of the wall heights on the repulsion speed.Comment: 8 page

A decision support system for TV self-promotion scheduling

This paper describes a Decision Support System (DSS) that aims to plan and maintain the weekly self-promotion space for an over the air TV station. The self-promotion plan requires the assignment of several self-promotion advertisements to a given set of available time slots over a pre-specified planning period. The DSS consists of a data base, a statistic module, an optimization module, and a user interface. The input data is provided by the TV station and by an external audiometry company, which collects daily audience information. The statistical module provides estimates based on the data received from the audiometry company. The optimization module uses a genetic algorithm that can find good solutions quickly. The interface reports the solution and corresponding metrics and can also be used by the decision makers to manually change solutions and input data. Here, we report mainly on the optimization module, which uses a genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain solutions of good quality for realistic sized problem instances in a reasonable amount of time. The GA solution quality is assessed using the optimal solutions obtained by using a branch-and-bound based algorithm to solve instances of small size, for which optimality gaps below 1% are obtained.This research had the support of COMPETE-FEDERPORTUGAL2020-POCI-NORTE2020-FCT funding via grants POCI-01-0145-FEDER 031447 and 031821, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000020, and PTDC-EEI-AUT-2933-2014|16858–TOCCATA

Two-dimensional Poisson Trees converge to the Brownian web

The Brownian web can be roughly described as a family of coalescing one-dimensional Brownian motions starting at all times in $\R$ and at all points of $\R$. It was introduced by Arratia; a variant was then studied by Toth and Werner; another variant was analyzed recently by Fontes, Isopi, Newman and Ravishankar. The two-dimensional \emph{Poisson tree} is a family of continuous time one-dimensional random walks with uniform jumps in a bounded interval. The walks start at the space-time points of a homogeneous Poisson process in $\R^2$ and are in fact constructed as a function of the point process. This tree was introduced by Ferrari, Landim and Thorisson. By verifying criteria derived by Fontes, Isopi, Newman and Ravishankar, we show that, when properly rescaled, and under the topology introduced by those authors, Poisson trees converge weakly to the Brownian web.Comment: 22 pages, 1 figure. This version corrects an error in the previous proof. The results are the sam

Armazenamento do milho: dos paiois aos silos subterrâneos.

bitstream/item/53897/1/Armazenamento-milho.pd