Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital

Young murderers in Bogotá, a focus groups study

Background. Violence has been declared as a public health problem in the world. In the last years, there has been an alarming increase of the violence caused by adolescents. This has been reflected in several indicators as the number of homicides. Adolescents are both criminals and victims of many of these violent acts. Colombia has not escaped this phenomenon —being homicide its main way of violent death— and there is little specific data on juvenile homicidal population. Objective. To explore likely risk factors linked to homicide committed by two young populations: a schooled one and non-schooled one. Materials and methods. A qualitative study of two focus groups: one composed by young murderers and another by young non-murderers. Results. Studies show that the main risk factor is the access to and the use of weapons. Other risk factors affect the young’s murder disposition to develop a criminal behaviour and the control strategies chosen by them. Such factors are interpreted in different ways by young murderers and non-murderers. Conclusions. This study gives important data which can be used in order to design and establish strategies to handle juvenile murder as a public health issue.Facultad de Ciencias Médica

Young murderers in Bogotá, a focus groups study

Background. Violence has been declared as a public health problem in the world. In the last years, there has been an alarming increase of the violence caused by adolescents. This has been reflected in several indicators as the number of homicides. Adolescents are both criminals and victims of many of these violent acts. Colombia has not escaped this phenomenon —being homicide its main way of violent death— and there is little specific data on juvenile homicidal population. Objective. To explore likely risk factors linked to homicide committed by two young populations: a schooled one and non-schooled one. Materials and methods. A qualitative study of two focus groups: one composed by young murderers and another by young non-murderers. Results. Studies show that the main risk factor is the access to and the use of weapons. Other risk factors affect the young’s murder disposition to develop a criminal behaviour and the control strategies chosen by them. Such factors are interpreted in different ways by young murderers and non-murderers. Conclusions. This study gives important data which can be used in order to design and establish strategies to handle juvenile murder as a public health issue.Facultad de Ciencias Médica

Young murderers in Bogotá, a focus groups study

Background. Violence has been declared as a public health problem in the world. In the last years, there has been an alarming increase of the violence caused by adolescents. This has been reflected in several indicators as the number of homicides. Adolescents are both criminals and victims of many of these violent acts. Colombia has not escaped this phenomenon —being homicide its main way of violent death— and there is little specific data on juvenile homicidal population. Objective. To explore likely risk factors linked to homicide committed by two young populations: a schooled one and non-schooled one. Materials and methods. A qualitative study of two focus groups: one composed by young murderers and another by young non-murderers. Results. Studies show that the main risk factor is the access to and the use of weapons. Other risk factors affect the young’s murder disposition to develop a criminal behaviour and the control strategies chosen by them. Such factors are interpreted in different ways by young murderers and non-murderers. Conclusions. This study gives important data which can be used in order to design and establish strategies to handle juvenile murder as a public health issue.Facultad de Ciencias Médica

Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

Apelin-13 limits infarct size and improves cardiac postischemic mechanical recovery only if given after ischemia

We studied whether apelin-13 is cardioprotective against ischemia/reperfusion injury if given as either a pre- or postconditioning mimetic and whether the improved postischemic mechanical recovery induced by apelin-13 depends only on the reduced infarct size or also on a recovery of function of the viable myocardium. We also studied whether nitric oxide (NO) is involved in apelin-induced protection and whether the reported ischemia-induced overexpression of the apelin receptor (APJ) plays a role in cardioprotection. Langendorff-perfused rat hearts underwent 30 min of global ischemia and 120 min of reperfusion. Left ventricular pressure was recorded. Infarct size and lactate dehydrogenase release were determined to evaluate the severity of myocardial injury. Apelin-13 was infused at 0.5 \u3bcM concentration for 20 min either before ischemia or in early reperfusion, without and with NO synthase inhibition by N(G)-nitro-l-arginine (l-NNA). In additional experiments, before ischemia also 1 \u3bcM apelin-13 was tested. APJ protein level was measured before and after ischemia. Whereas before ischemia apelin-13 (0.5 and 1.0 \u3bcM) was ineffective, after ischemia it reduced infarct size from 54 \ub1 2% to 26 \ub1 4% of risk area (P < 0.001) and limited the postischemic myocardial contracture (P < 0.001). l-NNA alone increased postischemic myocardial contracture. This increase was attenuated by apelin-13, which, however, was unable to reduce infarct size. Ischemia increased APJ protein level after 15-min perfusion, i.e., after most of reperfusion injury has occurred. Apelin-13 protects the heart only if given after ischemia. In this protection NO plays an important role. Apelin-13 efficiency as postconditioning mimetic cannot be explained by the increased APJ level

Treatment Seeking Problem Gamblers: Characteristics of Individuals who Offend to Finance Gambling

The relationship between Crime and gambling is well established, however few studies have examined offending specifically to finance gambling within a UK gambling treatment-seeking population. 1226 treatment-seeking gamblers completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), Patient Health Questionnaire, and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7 item scale, and were asked whether they had committed any illegal behaviours to finance gambling. 42.5 % reported offending behaviour. A greater proportion of the offending group were single or married/ cohabiting, had a lower-level qualifications, lower income, had experienced childhood abuse, family mental health problems and gambling related harms compared to the non-offending group. Offenders reported higher anxiety, depression and disordered gambling scores. Disordered gamblers who offend make up a discrete and complex subgroup with distinct vulnerabilities. Findings will be useful to clinicians involved in the assessment and management of problematic gambling. Gamblers who offend to finance gambling may have different treatment needs and treatment providers should administer appropriate clinical interventions to address vulnerabilities

Open-label add-on treatment trial of minocycline in fragile X syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is a disorder characterized by a variety of disabilities, including cognitive deficits, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, and other socio-emotional problems. It is hypothesized that the absence of the fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP) leads to higher levels of matrix metallo-proteinase-9 activity (MMP-9) in the brain. Minocycline inhibits MMP-9 activity, and alleviates behavioural and synapse abnormalities in <it>fmr1 </it>knockout mice, an established model for FXS. This open-label add-on pilot trial was conducted to evaluate safety and efficacy of minocycline in treating behavioural abnormalities that occur in humans with FXS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty individuals with FXS, ages 13-32, were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg or 200 mg of minocycline daily. Behavioural evaluations were made prior to treatment (baseline) and again 8 weeks after daily minocycline treatment. The primary outcome measure was the Aberrant Behaviour Checklist-Community Edition (ABC-C) Irritability Subscale, and the secondary outcome measures were the other ABC-C subscales, clinical global improvement scale (CGI), and the visual analog scale for behaviour (VAS). Side effects were assessed using an adverse events checklist, a complete blood count (CBC), hepatic and renal function tests, and antinuclear antibody screen (ANA), done at baseline and at 8 weeks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The ABC-C Irritability Subscale scores showed significant improvement (p < 0.001), as did the VAS (p = 0.003) and the CGI (p < 0.001). The only significant treatment-related side effects were minor diarrhea (n = 3) and seroconversion to a positive ANA (n = 2).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Results from this study demonstrate that minocycline provides significant functional benefits to FXS patients and that it is well-tolerated. These findings are consistent with the <it>fmr1 </it>knockout mouse model results, suggesting that minocycline modifies underlying neural defects that account for behavioural abnormalities. A placebo-controlled trial of minocycline in FXS is warranted.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Open-Label Trial NCT00858689.</p