Intraspecific trait variation and changing life-history strategies explain host community disease risk along a temperature gradient

Predicting how climate change will affect disease risk is complicated by the fact that changing environmental conditions can affect disease through direct and indirect effects. Species with fast-paced life-history strategies often amplify disease, and changing climate can modify life-history composition of communities thereby altering disease risk. However, individuals within a species can also respond to changing conditions with intraspecific trait variation. To test the effect of temperature, as well as inter- and intraspecifc trait variation on community disease risk, we measured foliar disease and specific leaf area (SLA; a proxy for life-history strategy) on more than 2500 host (plant) individuals in 199 communities across a 1101 m elevational gradient in southeastern Switzerland. There was no direct effect of increasing temperature on disease. Instead, increasing temperature favoured species with higher SLA, fast-paced life-history strategies. This effect was balanced by intraspecific variation in SLA: on average, host individuals expressed lower SLA with increasing temperature, and this effect was stronger among species adapted to warmer temperatures and lower latitudes. These results demonstrate how impacts of changing temperature on disease may depend on how temperature combines and interacts with host community structure while indicating that evolutionary constraints can determine how these effects are manifested under global change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world’

Multiple dimensions of biodiversity mediate effects of temperature on invertebrate herbivory in a montane grassland

Invertebrate herbivores are important and diverse, and their abundance and impacts will likely shift under climate change. Yet, past studies of invertebrate herbivory have documented highly variable responses to changing temperature, making it challenging to predict the direction and magnitude of these shifts. One explanation for these responses is that changing environmental conditions drive concurrent changes in plant communities and herbivore traits. The impacts of changing temperature on herbivory might therefore depend on how temperature combines and interacts with characteristics of plant and herbivore communities. To test this, we surveyed damage to leaves by invertebrate herbivores on 4400 plant individuals in 220 sampling plots along a 1101 m elevational gradient. Increasing temperature drove community‐level herbivory via at least three overlapping mechanisms: increasing temperature directly reduced herbivory, indirectly affected herbivory by reducing plant‐community phylogenetic diversity, and indirectly affected herbivory by altering the effects of plant‐community functional and phylogenetic diversity on herbivory. Consequently, increasing plant functional diversity reduced herbivory in colder environments while increasing plant phylogenetic diversity increased herbivory in warmer environments. Moreover, different herbivore feeding guilds varied in their response to temperature and plant community composition. These results indicate that, even along a single elevation gradient in a single year, a variety of mechanisms can concurrently drive herbivory, thereby supporting the hypothesis that a universal response of herbivory to changing environmental conditions is unlikely to exist. Instead, our results highlight the importance of considering both plant and herbivore community context to predict how climate change will alter invertebrate herbivory

Effects of abiotic environment on invertebrate herbivory depend on plant community context in a montane grassland

Invertebrate herbivores are important and diverse, and their abundance and impacts are expected to undergo unprecedented shifts under climate change. Yet, past studies of invertebrate herbivory have documented a wide variety of responses to changing temperature, making it challenging to predict the direction and magnitude of these shifts. One explanation for these idiosyncratic responses is that changing environmental conditions may drive concurrent changes in plant communities and herbivore traits. Thus, the impacts of changing temperature on herbivory might depend on how temperature combines and interacts with characteristics of plant communities and the herbivores that occupy them. Here, we test this hypothesis by surveying invertebrate herbivory in 220, 0.5 meter-diameter herbaceous plant communities along a 1101-meter elevational gradient. Our results suggest that increasing temperature can drive community-level herbivory via at least three overlapping mechanisms: increasing temperature directly reduced herbivory, indirectly affected herbivory by reducing phylogenetic diversity of the plant community, and indirectly affected herbivory by altering the effects of functional and phylogenetic diversity on herbivory. Consequently, increasing functional diversity of plant communities had a negative effect on herbivory, but only in colder environments while a positive effect of increasing phylogenetic diversity was observed in warmer environments. Moreover, accounting for differences among herbivore feeding guilds considerably improved model fit, because different herbivore feeding guilds varied in their response to temperature and plant community composition. Together, these results highlight the importance of considering both plant and herbivore community context in order to predict how climate change will alter invertebrate herbivory

Disease decreases variation in host community structure in an old-field grassland

Disease may modulate variation in host community structure by modifying the interplay of deterministic and stochastic processes. For instance, deterministic processes like ecological selection can benefit species less impacted by disease. When disease consistently selects for certain host species, this can reduce variation in host community composition. On the other hand, when host communities are less impacted by disease and selection is weaker, stochastic processes (e.g., drift, dispersal) may play a bigger role in host community structure, which can increase variation in structure among communities. While effects of disease on host community structure have been quantified in field experiments, few have addressed the role of disease in modulating variation in structure among host communities. To address this, we conducted a field experiment spanning three years, using a tractable system: foliar fungal pathogens in an old-field grassland community dominated by the grass Lolium arundinaceum, tall fescue. We reduced foliar fungal disease burden in replicate host communities (experimental plots in intact vegetation) in three fungicide regimens that varied in the duration of fungicide exposure and included a fungicide-free control. We measured host diversity, biomass, and variation in community structure among replicate communities. Disease reduction generally decreased plant richness and increased aboveground biomass relative to communities experiencing ambient levels of disease. Despite changes in structure of the plant communities over the experiment’s three years, the effects of disease reduction on plant richness and biomass were consistent across years. However, disease reduction did not reduce variation in host community structure, providing little evidence for ecological selection by competition or other deterministic processes. Instead, disease reduction tended to amplify variation in host community structure among replicate communities (i.e., within fungicide treatment groups), suggesting that disease diminished the degree to which host communities were structured by stochastic processes. These results of experimental disease reduction both highlight the potential importance of stochastic processes in plant communities and reveal the potential for disease to regulate variation in host community structure

Biodiversity loss underlies the dilution effect of biodiversity

The dilution effect predicts increasing biodiversity to reduce the risk of infection, but the generality of this effect remains unresolved. Because biodiversity loss generates predictable changes in host community competence, we hypothesised that biodiversity loss might drive the dilution effect. We tested this hypothesis by reanalysing four previously published meta-analyses that came to contradictory conclusions regarding generality of the dilution effect. In the context of biodiversity loss, our analyses revealed a unifying pattern: dilution effects were inconsistently observed for natural biodiversity gradients, but were commonly observed for biodiversity gradients generated by disturbances causing losses of biodiversity. Incorporating biodiversity loss into tests of generality of the dilution effect further indicated that scale-dependency may strengthen the dilution effect only when biodiversity gradients are driven by biodiversity loss. Together, these results help to resolve one of the most contentious issues in disease ecology: the generality of the dilution effect.Non peer reviewe

Global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, but it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. We amassed a dataset from the literature that includes 1,832 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,202 host-parasite combinations. We found that biodiversity loss, climate change, and introduced species were associated with increases in disease-related endpoints or harm (i.e., enemy release for introduced species), whereas urbanization was associated with decreases in disease endpoints. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation, forest fragmentation, and most classes of chemical contaminants had non-significant effects on these endpoints. Overall, these results were consistent across human and non-human diseases. Context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were common and are discussed. These findings will help better target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease.One-Sentence SummaryHere we quantify which global change drivers increase infectious diseases the most to better target global disease management and surveillance efforts

Evolutionary consequences of feedbacks between within-host competition and disease control

Lay Summary: Competition often occurs among diverse parasites within a single host, but control efforts could change its strength. We examined how the interplay between competition and control could shape the evolution of parasite traits like drug resistance and disease severity

Market Exchange and the Rule of Law:Confidence in predictability

Law and economics is a significant field of analysis in legal studies and in economics, although there have been a number of controversies about how best to understand the relationship between economic relations and the regulatory role of law. Rather than surveying this field and offering a criticism of various theories and engaging in the dispute between different perspectives on the relationship between the two, in this article I take an approach rooted in neither mainstream economics nor in formal legal philosophy. Rather drawing on a recent well-rounded statement of behavioural economics and a synthesis of previous work on the narrative of the rule of law, I seek to explore how and why contemporary capitalism seems to have become so tied up with the rule of law, and what this might tell us more generally about the role of law in market relations. This analysis goes beyond the relatively commonplace observation that capitalism requires property rights, contract law and market institutionalisation to function, to ask ‘what exactly is it about the rule of law that seems so necessary to establishing and maintaining market exchange(s)?

Small Drains, Big Problems: The Impact of Dry Weather Runoff on Shoreline Water Quality at Enclosed Beaches

Enclosed beaches along urban coastlines are frequent hot spots of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) pollution. In this paper we present field measurements and modeling studies aimed at evaluating the impact of small storm drains on FIB pollution at enclosed beaches in Newport Bay, the second largest tidal embayment in Southern California. Our results suggest that small drains have a disproportionate impact on enclosed beach water quality for five reasons: (1) dry weather surface flows (primarily from overirrigation of lawns and ornamental plants) harbor FIB at concentrations exceeding recreational water quality criteria; (2) small drains can trap dry weather runoff during high tide, and then release it in a bolus during the falling tide when drainpipe outlets are exposed; (3) nearshore turbulence is low (turbulent diffusivities approximately 10(-3) m(2) s(-1)), limiting dilution of FIB and other runoff-associated pollutants once they enter the bay; (4) once in the bay, runoff can form buoyant plumes that further limit vertical mixing and dilution; and (5) local winds can force buoyant runoff plumes back against the shoreline, where water depth is minimal and human contact likely. Outdoor water conservation and urban retrofits that minimize the volume of dry and wet weather runoff entering the local storm drain system may be the best option for improving beach water quality in Newport Bay and other urban-impacted enclosed beaches