Experimental evaluation of spatial capture–recapture study design

This research was funded by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, accession 1009581. This is a contribution of the Salamander Population and Adaptation Network (SPARCnet) and contribution #767 of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI).A principal challenge impeding strong inference in analyses of wild populations is the lack of robust and long-term data sets. Recent advancements in analytical tools used in wildlife science may increase our ability to integrate smaller data sets and enhance the statistical power of population estimates. One such advancement, the development of spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods, explicitly accounts for differences in spatial study designs, making it possible to equate multiple study designs in one analysis. SCR has been shown to be robust to variation in design as long as minimal sampling guidance is adhered to. However, these expectations are based on simulation and have yet to be evaluated in wild populations. Here we conduct a rigorously designed field experiment by manipulating the arrangement of artificial cover objects (ACOs) used to collect data on red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to empirically evaluate the effects of design configuration on inference made using SCR. Our results suggest that, using SCR, estimates of space use and detectability are sensitive to study design configuration, namely the spacing and extent of the array, and that caution is warranted when assigning biological interpretation to these parameters. However, estimates of population density remain robust to design except when the configuration of detectors grossly violates existing recommendations.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in risk of sudden infant death syndrome, other causes of infant mortality, and stillbirth in Scotland: population based study

Objectives To compare changes in inequalities in sudden infant death syndrome with other causes of infant mortality and stillbirth in Scotland, 1985-2008

Time of birth and risk of neonatal death at term: retrospective cohort study

Objective To determine the effect of time and day of birth on the risk of neonatal death at term

Health, educational and employment outcomes among children treated for a skin disorder : Scotland-wide retrospective record linkage cohort study of 766,244 children

Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the electronic Data Research and Innovation Services (eDRIS) within Public Health Scotland for their involvement in obtaining approvals, provisioning, and linking data and the use of the secure analytical platform within the National Safe Haven. Funding: The study was sponsored by Health Data Research UK (www.hdruk.ac.uk) (grant reference number MR/S003800/1 awarded to Dr Michael Fleming) which is a joint investment led by the Medical Research Council, together with the National Institute for Health Research (England), the Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Health and Care Research Wales, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Public Health Agency, Northern Ireland), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Economic and Social Research Council, the British Heart Foundation and Wellcome Trust. The sponsor and funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript, or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Rates and causes of mortality among children and young people with and without intellectual disabilities in Scotland: a record linkage cohort study of 796,190 schoolchildren

Objectives: To investigate mortality rates and causes in children and young people with intellectual disabilities. Design: Retrospective cohort; individual record linkage between Scotland’s annual pupil census and National Records of Scotland death register. Setting: General community. Participants: Pupils receiving local authority-funded schooling in Scotland, 2008 to 2013, with an Additional Support Need due to intellectual disabilities, compared with other pupils. Main outcome measures: Deaths up to 2015: age of death, age-standardised mortality ratios (age-SMRs); causes of death including cause-specific age-SMRs; avoidable deaths as defined by the UK Office of National Statistics. Results: 18 278/947 922 (1.9%) pupils had intellectual disabilities. 106 died over 67 342 person-years (crude mortality rate=157/100 000 person-years), compared with 458 controls over 3 672 224 person-years (crude mortality rate=12/100 000 person-years). Age-SMR was 11.6 (95% CI 9.6 to 14.0); 16.6 (95% CI 12.2 to 22.6) for female pupils and 9.8 (95% CI 7.7 to 12.5) for male pupils. Most common main underlying causes were diseases of the nervous system, followed by congenital anomalies; most common all-contributing causes were diseases of the nervous system, followed by respiratory system; most common specific contributing causes were cerebral palsy, pneumonia, respiratory failure and epilepsy. For all contributing causes, SMR was 98.8 (95% CI 69.9 to 139.7) for congenital anomalies, 76.5 (95% CI 58.9 to 99.4) for nervous system, 63.7 (95% CI 37.0 to 109.7) for digestive system, 55.3 (95% CI 42.5 to 72.1) for respiratory system, 32.1 (95% CI 17.8 to 57.9) for endocrine and 14.8 (95% CI 8.9 to 24.5) for circulatory system. External causes accounted for 46% of control deaths, but the SMR for external-related deaths was still higher (3.6 (95% CI 2.2 to 5.8)) for pupils with intellectual disabilities. Deaths amenable to good care were common. Conclusion: Pupils with intellectual disabilities were much more likely to die than their peers, and had a different pattern of causes, including amenable deaths across a wide range of disease categories. Improvements are needed to reduce amenable deaths, for example, epilepsy-related and dysphagia, and to support families of children with life-limiting conditions

In utero antihypertensive medication exposure and neonatal outcomes : A data linkage cohort study

We acknowledge the support from the Farr Institute @ Scotland. The Farr Institute @ Scotland is supported by a 10-funder consortium: Arthritis Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research, the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research (Welsh Assembly Government), the Chief Scientist Office (Scottish Government Health Directorates), the Wellcome Trust, (MRC grant number MR/K007017/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Using graphic modelling to identify modifiable mediators of the association between area-based deprivation at birth and offspring unemployment

Background: Deprivation can perpetuate across generations; however, the causative pathways are not well understood. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) with mediation analysis can help elucidate and quantify complex pathways in order to identify modifiable factors at which to target interventions. Methods and findings: We linked ten Scotland-wide databases (six health and four education) to produce a cohort of 217,226 pupils who attended Scottish schools between 2009 and 2013. The DAG comprised 23 potential mediators of the association between area deprivation at birth and subsequent offspring ‘not in education, employment or training’ status, covering maternal, antenatal, perinatal and child health, school engagement, and educational factors. Analyses were performed using modified g-computation. Deprivation at birth was associated with a 7.3% increase in offspring ‘not in education, employment or training’. The principal mediators of this association were smoking during pregnancy (natural indirect effect of 0·016, 95% CI 0·013, 0·019) and school absences (natural indirect effect of 0·021, 95% CI 0·018, 0·024), explaining 22% and 30% of the total effect respectively. The proportion of the association potentially eliminated by addressing these factors was 19% (controlled direct effect when set to non-smoker 0·058; 95% CI 0·053, 0·063) for smoking during pregnancy and 38% (controlled direct effect when set to no absences 0·043; 95% CI 0·037, 0·049) for school absences. Conclusions: Combining a DAG with mediation analysis helped disentangle a complex public health problem and quantified the modifiable factors of maternal smoking and school absence that could be targeted for intervention. This study also demonstrates the general utility of DAGs in understanding complex public health problems

Educational and health outcomes of children and adolescents receiving antidepressant medication : Scotland-wide retrospective record linkage cohort study of 766 237 schoolchildren

Funding Health Data Research UK (grant reference number MR/S003800/1). Acknowledgements The study was sponsored by Health Data Research UK (www.hdruk.ac.uk), which is a joint investment led by the Medical Research Council, together with the National Institute for Health Research (England), the Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Health and Care Research Wales, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Public Health Agency, Northern Ireland), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Economic and Social Research Council, the British Heart Foundation and Wellcome (grant reference number MR/S003800/1). The sponsor and funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. This study formed part of a wider PhD thesis undertaken by the lead author within the University of Glasgow and was published in 2017. Certain sections of this paper appear in the thesis, which is accessible and downloadable from the following link: http://theses.gla.ac.uk/8594/1/2017flemingphd.pdf. Author Contributions J.P.P. had the original concept. All authors agreed the study design. D.C. and A.K. provided data and undertook record linkage. M.F. and D.F.M. undertook the statistical analyses. All authors interpreted the results. M.F. and J.P.P. drafted the manuscript and all other authors contributed revisions. All authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript. M.F. is guarantor for the study. Approvals The authors applied for permission to access, link and analyse these data and undertook mandatory training in data protection, IT security and information governance. Therefore, the datasets generated and analysed during the study are not publicly available. The study was approved by the National Health Service Privacy Advisory Committee and covered by a data-processing agreement between Glasgow University and ISD, and a data-sharing agreement between Glasgow University and ScotXed. All data were linked by the Electronic Data Research and Innovation Service (eDRIS), part of NHS National Services Scotland. Ethics The NHS West of Scotland Research Ethics Service confirmed that formal NHS ethics approval was not required, since the study involved anonymized extracts of routinely collected data with an acceptably negligible risk of identification. Conflict of interest: None declaredPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Educational and health outcomes of children and adolescents receiving antiepileptic medication : Scotland-wide record linkage study of 766 244 schoolchildren

Acknowledgements The study was sponsored by Health Data Research UK (www.hdruk.ac.uk) which is a joint investment led by the Medical Research Council, together with the National Institute for Health Research (England), the Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Health and Care Research Wales, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Public Health Agency, Northern Ireland), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Economic and Social Research Council, the British Heart Foundation and Wellcome. This study formed part of a wider PhD thesis undertaken by the lead author within the University of Glasgow, which was published in 2017. Therefore, certain sections of this paper appear in the thesis, which is accessible and downloadable from the following link: http://theses.gla.ac.uk/8594/1/2017flemingphd.pdf. Funding The study was sponsored by Health Data Research UK. The sponsor and funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript, or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Availability of data and materials The authors applied for permission to access, link and analyse these data and undertook mandatory training in data protection, IT security and information governance. Therefore, the datasets generated and analysed during the study are not publicly available.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Infant feeding method and special educational need in 191,745 Scottish schoolchildren: A national, population cohort study

Background Infant breastfeeding has been associated with reduced incidence of childhood physical and mental health problems. This study investigated relationships between infant feeding methods and the risk of Special Educational Need (SEN). Methods A retrospective population cohort of schoolchildren in Scotland was constructed by linking together health (maternity, birth, and health visitor records) and education (annual school pupil census) databases. Inclusion was restricted to singleton children, born in Scotland from 2004 onwards with available breastfeeding data and who attended local authority mainstream or special schools between 2009 and 2013. Generalised estimating equation models with a binomial distribution and logit link function investigated associations between infant feeding method at 6–8 weeks and any-cause and cause-specific SEN, adjusting for sociodemographic and maternity factors. Findings Of 191 745 children meeting inclusion criteria, 126 907 (66·2%) were formula-fed, 48 473 (25·3%) exclusively breastfed, and 16 365 (8·5%) mixed fed. Overall, 23 141 (12·1%) children required SEN. Compared with formula feeding, mixed feeding and exclusive breastfeeding were associated with decreased any-cause SEN (OR 0·90, 95% CI 0·84–0·95; and 0·78, 0·75–0·82), and SEN attributed to learning disabilities (0·75, 0·65–0·87; and 0·66, 0·59–0·74), and learning difficulties (0·85, 0·77–0·94; and 0·75, 0·70–0·81). Compared with formula feeding, exclusively breastfed children had less communication problems (0·81, 0·74–0·88), social-emotional-behavioural difficulties (0·77, 0·70–0·84), sensory impairments (0·79, 0·65–0·95), physical motor disabilities (0·78, 0·66–0·91), and physical health conditions (0·74, 0·63–0·87). Feeding method was not significantly associated with mental health conditions or autism. Interpretation Many women struggle to exclusively breastfeed for the full 6 months recommended by WHO; however, this study provides evidence that a shorter duration of nonexclusive breastfeeding could nonetheless be beneficial with regard to the development of SEN