Analysis of family-wise error rates in statistical parametric mapping using random field theory.

This technical report revisits the analysis of family-wise error rates in statistical parametric mapping-using random field theory-reported in (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863). Contrary to the understandable spin that these sorts of analyses attract, a review of their results suggests that they endorse the use of parametric assumptions-and random field theory-in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data. We briefly rehearse the advantages parametric analyses offer over nonparametric alternatives and then unpack the implications of (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863) for parametric procedures. Hum Brain Mapp, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes

This technical report describes the rationale and technical details for the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes based upon a variety of timeseries data. It details the structure of the underlying convolution or generative model (at the time of writing on 6-Nov-20). This report is intended for use as a reference that accompanies the predictions in following dashboard: https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/dashboar

Multimodal Integration of M/EEG and f/MRI Data in SPM12

We describe the steps involved in analysis of multi-modal, multi-subject human neuroimaging data using the SPM12 free and open source software (https://www.fil. ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/) and a publically-available dataset organized according to the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS) format (https://openneuro.org/datasets/ds000117/). The dataset contains electroencephalographic (EEG), magnetoencephalographic (MEG), and functional and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from 16 subjects who undertook multiple runs of a simple task performed on a large number of famous, unfamiliar and scrambled faces. We demonstrate: (1) batching and scripting of preprocessing of multiple runs/subjects of combined MEG and EEG data, (2) creation of trial-averaged evoked responses, (3) source-reconstruction of the power (induced and evoked) across trials within a time-frequency window around the “N/M170” evoked component, using structural MRI for forward modeling and simultaneous inversion (fusion) of MEG and EEG data, (4) group-based optimisation of spatial priors during M/EEG source reconstruction using fMRI data on the same paradigm, and (5) statistical mapping across subjects of cortical source power increases for faces vs. scrambled faces

Genotype determines Arbutus unedo L. physiological and metabolomic responses to drought and recovery

Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo) is a small resilient species with a circum-Mediterranean distribution, high ecological relevance in southern European forests and with several economical applications. As most orchards are usually installed on marginal lands where plants usually face severe drought, selecting plants that can better cope with water restriction is critical, and a better understanding of the tolerance mechanisms is required. Strawberry tree plants under drought follow a typical isohydric strategy, by limiting transpiration through stomata closure. However, the contribution of genotype and its bio-geographic origin on plant performance needs clarification, as well as the involvement of a specific metabolic reactions associated with the mechanical response. To test this hypothesis, several eco-physiological and biochemical parameters were assessed on different genotypes, and the metabolic profiles studied, including important stress-related phytohormones, on plants under different water regimes (plants watered to 70% and 18% field capacity) and a recovery assay. A contrasting drought tolerance was found in plants from different genotypes, associated with physiological and metabolic responses. Metabolomics revealed more than 500 metabolic features were differentially accumulated, including abscisic and salicylic acids, for the genotype with better performance under drought (A4). This genotype also recovered faster when the imposed stress was interrupted, thus indicating the relevance of metabolic adaptation under water deficit conditions. By correlating carbon assimilation with identified metabolites, some proved to be satisfactory predictors of plant performance under drought and might be used for marker assisted breeding. Therefore, our study proves the importance of genotype as a major selection criterion of resistant plants to drought and provides empirical knowledge of the metabolic response involved. We also hypothesized the involvement of phenolics on response mechanisms under drought, which is worth to be explored to shed light on the metabolic pathways involved in plant response to water stress

Tunneling-percolation origin of nonuniversality: theory and experiments

A vast class of disordered conducting-insulating compounds close to the percolation threshold is characterized by nonuniversal values of transport critical exponent t, in disagreement with the standard theory of percolation which predicts t = 2.0 for all three dimensional systems. Various models have been proposed in order to explain the origin of such universality breakdown. Among them, the tunneling-percolation model calls into play tunneling processes between conducting particles which, under some general circumstances, could lead to transport exponents dependent of the mean tunneling distance a. The validity of such theory could be tested by changing the parameter a by means of an applied mechanical strain. We have applied this idea to universal and nonuniversal RuO2-glass composites. We show that when t > 2 the measured piezoresistive response \Gamma, i. e., the relative change of resistivity under applied strain, diverges logarithmically at the percolation threshold, while for t = 2, \Gamma does not show an appreciable dependence upon the RuO2 volume fraction. These results are consistent with a mean tunneling dependence of the nonuniversal transport exponent as predicted by the tunneling-percolation model. The experimental results are compared with analytical and numerical calculations on a random-resistor network model of tunneling-percolation.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figure

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA [version 2; peer review: 2 approved with reservations]

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA [version 3; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium

Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 1 not approved]

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of this model is to quantify the uncertainty that attends predictions of relevant outcomes. By assuming suitable conditional dependencies, one can model the effects of interventions (e.g., social distancing) and differences among populations (e.g., herd immunity) to predict what might happen in different circumstances. Technically, this model leverages state-of-the-art variational (Bayesian) model inversion and comparison procedures, originally developed to characterise the responses of neuronal ensembles to perturbations. Here, this modelling is applied to epidemiological populations to illustrate the kind of inferences that are supported and how the model per se can be optimised given timeseries data. Although the purpose of this paper is to describe a modelling protocol, the results illustrate some interesting perspectives on the current pandemic; for example, the nonlinear effects of herd immunity that speak to a self-organised mitigation process

Testing and tracking in the UK: A dynamic causal modelling study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved]

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we were able to model the effects of self-isolation consequent on testing and tracking. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic—and could only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections is highly unlikely. The emergence of a second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A testing and tracking policy—implemented at the present time—will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation—using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies