News, Noise, and Estimates of the "True" Unobserved State of the Economy

Which provides a better estimates of the growth rate of “true” U.S. output, gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI)? Past work has assumed the idiosyncratic variation in each estimate is pure noise, taking greater variability to imply lower reliability. We develop models that relax this assumption, allowing the idiosyncratic variation in the estimates to be partly or pure news; then greater variability may imply higher information content and greater reliability. Based on evidence from revisions, we reject the pure noise assumption for GDI growth, and our results favor placing sizable weight on GDI growth because of its relatively large idiosyncratic variability. This calls into question the suitability of the pure noise assumption in other contexts, including dynamic factor models.

A Wavelet-Based Approach To Monitoring Parkinson's Disease Symptoms

Parkinson's disease is a neuro-degenerative disorder affecting tens of millions of people worldwide. Lately, there has been considerable interest in systems for at-home monitoring of patients, using wearable devices which contain inertial measurement units. We present a new wavelet-based approach for analysis of data from single wrist-worn smart-watches, and show high detection performance for tremor, bradykinesia, and dyskinesia, which have been the major targets for monitoring in this context. We also discuss the implication of our controlled-experiment results for uncontrolled home monitoring of freely behaving patients.Comment: ICASSP 201

The Measurement of Banking Services in the System of National Accounts

The paper considers some of the problems associated with the indirectly measured components of financial service outputs in the System of National Accounts (SNA), termed FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured). The paper characterizes FISIM by a user cost and supplier benefit approach determining the price and quantity of various financial services in the banking sector. We examine the need for FISIM in the context of plausible alternative accounting schemes that could be used to account for financial services. The alternative accounting frameworks have implications for the labour and multifactor productivity of both the financial and nonfinancial sectors.User costs, banking services, deposit services, loan services, Total Factor Productivity growth, production accounts, System of National Accounts, FIS

Hyporheic Flow Possibilities within Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) Redds on the Blackledge River in Marlborough Connecticut

The fluvial geomorphic process of hyporheic flow provides critical nutrients and dissolved oxygen to macroinvertebrates and eggs within riverbeds through hyporheic exchange. Hyporheic flow may operate at similar scales within sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) redds. Limited documentation exists on the hyporheic processes within lamprey redds. This study attempts to measure hyporheic flow using a saline injection syringe and salinity probe to record salinity-time curves. The method was applied to several redds on the Blackledge River, Marlborough, Connecticut. The second aspect of this study examined the hydraulic properties of lamprey redds within a controlled environment in a 0.5 m by 6 m flume at Connecticut College, New London, Connecticut. A 50% scale redd was constructed and velocity measurements were taken using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter at three different discharges. The salinity syringe provided moderate success in measuring the percent change of salinity and decay rate, with the strongest correlation at the beginning of the mound, but failed to provide accurate intergranular velocity measurements. The results of the flume study indicate strong areas of downwelling and upwelling at the pit and mound, respectively. Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is highest over the mound, indicating different pressures that may induce hyporheic flow through the redd mound. Velocity was the slowest downstream of the mound for all three discharges, and mean vertical velocity (Vz) values increased then decreased rapidly moving downstream over the mound. Although the hyporheic flow was not directly measured, the results reveal that lamprey redds influence localized velocity patterns and create low pressures downstream of the mound, which should enhance hyporheic exchange

Decadal-Scale Effects of Large Wood Restoration on Channel Morphology and Groundwater Connectivity, Taneum Creek, WA

The importance of large wood (LW) in creating channel complexity is widely recognized; however, few LW projects have been in place long enough to track meaningful channel changes on a decadal timescale. Taneum Creek, located in central Washington, is one of the earliest LW restoration areas (2008) in the Yakima River Basin and the central Cascade Mountains. The flood in 2011, with an estimated discharge of 69 m3/s (2,400-2,800 cfs), provided further channel change by mobilizing LW and channel sediments. Three reaches with similar channel characteristics and LW additions were compared with a control reach without LW additions to document this annual channel change. The effect of LW on annual floodplain connectivity was further assessed using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which represents density of greenness and plant health. This index is used as a proxy for floodplain ‘greenness’, which will help illustrate floodplain connectivity. In response to the large flood of 2011, LW created new channel complexity, such as significant increases in multi-threaded channels in each of the LW study reaches, except the control reach, as well as side-channel formation which allowed for beaver dam construction. Of the side channels that formed in the LW reaches, 50% or more formed 10 m downstream of LW jams. Sinuosity increases were not uniform among the different reaches with fluctuating increases and decreases. The reaches with increased channel complexity related to the LW and large flood also increased in floodplain greenness and connectivity. This increase is likely a result of the floodplain inundation that increased delivery of water to side channels and beaver ponds and perhaps raising the local groundwater table. The results of the study indicate that the reaches with LW additions increased in channel complexity and groundwater-floodplain connectivity following the large flood, which is important for maintaining diverse aquatic and riparian species and possible aquifer recharge

Aerial herbicide spray to control invasive water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes): water quality concerns fronting fish occupying a tropical floodplain wetland

Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is an aquatic weed degrading tropical floodplains everywhere. On the Burdekin floodplain, northern Australia, it is widespread and contributes to poor water quality, specifically hypoxia which contributes to voluminous wetland fish kills each summer. Removing weeds have focused on applying herbicides using aerial spraying, though restoration success is not monitored. Here, we investigated four aerial spray applications scheduled between November 2013 (Year 1, November 2013 to November 2014) and November 2015 (Year 2, November 2014 to November 2015) in Lochinvah wetland (35 ha wetland, Burdekin floodplain). Using high-frequency (20 min) loggers, dissolved oxygen (DO%) was tracked, which revealed that concentrations were similar before and several weeks after a spray application (independent t test, p > 0.01, except spray application 2, p = 0.06). More interestingly, aquatic weed coverage was low (5% of wetland) during Year 1 and DO had a typical diurnal cycle (20% to 130%). In contrast, low wetland flushing in Year 2 and high weed coverage (80% coverage) combined to increase DO hypoxia exposure risks for fish, with nearly 100% of the logging time failing acute and chronic values known for local fish. The Year 2 weed cover also increased water temperature exposure risk (twofold increase), which was unexpected and which means that fish probably could access cool, deeper, water refugia more frequently compared with Year 1. Controlling aquatic weeds using aerial spraying seems to have minimal risk for fish when cover is low; however, the proliferation of aquatic weeds and spraying has deleterious impact on available oxygen for fish