A quantum theory account of order effects and conjunction fallacies in political judgments

Are our everyday judgments about the world around us normative? Decades of research in the judgment and decision-making literature suggest the answer is no. If people's judgments do not follow normative rules, then what rules if any do they follow? Quantum probability theory is a promising new approach to modeling human behavior that is at odds with normative, classical rules. One key advantage of using quantum theory is that it explains multiple types of judgment errors using the same basic machinery, unifying what have previously been thought of as disparate phenomena. In this article, we test predictions from quantum theory related to the co-occurrence of two classic judgment phenomena, order effects and conjunction fallacies, using judgments about real-world events (related to the U.S. presidential primaries). We also show that our data obeys two a priori and parameter free constraints derived from quantum theory. Further, we examine two factors that moderate the effects, cognitive thinking style (as measured by the Cognitive Reflection Test) and political ideology

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Does the cognitive reflection test measure cognitive reflection? A mathematical modeling approach

We used a mathematical modeling approach, based on a sample of 2,019 participants, to better understand what the cognitive reflection test (CRT; Frederick In Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19, 25–42, 2005) measures. This test, which is typically completed in less than 10 min, contains three problems and aims to measure the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind. However, since the test contains three mathematically based problems, it is possible that the test only measures mathematical abilities, and not cognitive reflection. We found that the models that included an inhibition parameter (i.e., the probability of inhibiting an intuitive response), as well as a mathematical parameter (i.e., the probability of using an adequate mathematical procedure), fitted the data better than a model that only included a mathematical parameter. We also found that the inhibition parameter in males is best explained by both rational thinking ability and the disposition toward actively open-minded thinking, whereas in females this parameter was better explained by rational thinking only. With these findings, this study contributes to the understanding of the processes involved in solving the CRT, and will be particularly useful for researchers who are considering using this test in their research

Understanding, comprehensibility and acceptance of an evidence-based consumer information brochure on fall prevention in old age: a focus group study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence-based patient and consumer information (EBPI) is an indispensable component of the patients' decision making process in health care. Prevention of accidental falls in the elderly has gained a lot of public interest during preceding years. Several consumer information brochures on fall prevention have been published; however, none fulfilled the criteria of an EBPI. Little is known about the reception of EBPI by seniors. Therefore we aimed to evaluate a recently developed EBPI brochure on fall prevention with regard to seniors' acceptance and comprehensibility in focus groups and to explore whether the participants' judgements differed depending on the educational background of the study participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Seven focus groups were conducted with 40 seniors, aged 60 years or older living independently in a community. Participants were recruited by two gatekeepers. A discussion guide was used and seniors were asked to judge the EBPI brochure on fall prevention using a Likert scale 1-6. The focus group discussions were tape recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using content analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The participants generally accepted the EBPI brochure on fall prevention. Several participants expressed a need for more practical advice. The comprehensibility of the brochure was influenced positively by brief chapter summaries. Participants dismissed the statistical illustrations such as confidence intervals or a Fagan nomogram and only half of them agreed with the meta-information presented in the first chapter. The detailed information about fall prevalence was criticised by some seniors. The use of a case story was well tolerated by the majority of participants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings indicate that the recently developed EBPI brochure on fall prevention in old age was generally well accepted by seniors, but some statistical descriptions were difficult for them to understand. The brochure has to be updated. However, not all issues raised by the participants will be taken into account since some of them are contrary to the principles of EBPI.</p

Factors affecting the disclosure of diabetes by ethnic minority patients: a qualitative study among Surinamese in the Netherlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes and related complications are common among ethnic minority groups. Community-based social support interventions are considered promising for improving diabetes self-management. To access such interventions, patients need to disclose their diabetes to others. Research on the disclosure of diabetes in ethnic minority groups is limited. The aim of our study was to explore why diabetes patients from ethnic minority populations either share or do not share their condition with people in their wider social networks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with 32 Surinamese patients who were being treated for type 2 diabetes by general practitioners in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most patients disclosed their diabetes only to very close family members. The main factor inhibiting disclosure to people outside this group was the Surinamese cultural custom that talking about disease is taboo, as it may lead to shame, gossip, and social disgrace for the patient and their family. Nevertheless, some patients disclosed their diabetes to people outside their close family circles. Factors motivating this decision were mostly related to a need for facilities or support for diabetes self-management.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Cultural customs inhibited Surinamese patients in disclosing their diabetes to people outside their very close family circles. This may influence their readiness to participate in community-based diabetes self-management programmes that involve other groups. What these findings highlight is that public health researchers and initiatives must identify and work with factors that influence the disclosure of diabetes if they are to develop community-based diabetes self-management interventions for ethnic minority populations.</p

Home birth and barriers to referring women with obstetric complications to hospitals: a mixed-methods study in Zahedan, southeastern Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One factor that contributes to high maternal mortality in developing countries is the delayed use of Emergency Obstetric-Care (EmOC) facilities. The objective of this study was to determine the factors that hinder midwives and parturient women from using hospitals when complications occur during home birth in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iran, where 23% of all deliveries take place in non- hospital settings.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the study and data management, a mixed-methods approach was used. In the quantitative phase, we compared the existing health-sector data with World Health Organization (WHO) standards for the availability and use of EmOC services. The qualitative phase included collection and analysis of interviews with midwives and traditional birth attendants and twenty-one in-depth interviews with mothers. The data collected in this phase were managed according to the principles of qualitative data analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The findings demonstrate that three distinct factors lead to indecisiveness and delay in the use of EmOC by the midwives and mothers studied. Socio-cultural and familial reasons compel some women to choose to give birth at home and to hesitate seeking professional emergency care for delivery complications. Apprehension about being insulted by physicians, the necessity of protecting their professional integrity in front of patients and an inability to persuade their patients lead to an over-insistence by midwives on completing deliveries at the mothers' homes and a reluctance to refer their patients to hospitals. The low quality and expense of EmOC and the mothers' lack of health insurance also contribute to delays in referral.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Women who choose to give birth at home accept the risk that complications may arise. Training midwives and persuading mothers and significant others who make decisions about the value of referring women to hospitals at the onset of life-threatening complications are central factors to increasing the use of available hospitals. The hospitals must be safe, comfortable and attractive environments for parturition and should give appropriate consideration to the ethical and cultural concerns of the women. Appropriate management of financial and insurance-related issues can help midwives and mothers make a rational decision when complications arise.</p

Maternal and perinatal outcomes after bariatric surgery: a spanish multicenter study

The final publication is avaliable at Springer Link[Abstract] Background. Bariatric surgery (BS) has become more frequent among women of child-bearing age. Data regarding the underlying maternal and perinatal risks are scarce. The objective of this nationwide study is to evaluate maternal and perinatal outcomes after BS. Methods. We performed a retrospective observational study of 168 pregnancies in 112 women who underwent BS in 10 tertiary hospitals in Spain over a 15-year period. Maternal and perinatal outcomes, including gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders (PAHD), pre-term birth cesarean deliveries, small and large for gestational age births (SGA, LGA), still births, and neonatal deaths, were evaluated. Results were further compared according to the type of BS performed: restrictive techniques (vertical-banded gastroplasty, sleeve gastrectomy, and gastric banding), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and biliopancreatic diversion (BPD). Results. GDM occurred in five (3 %) pregnancies and there were no cases of PAHD. Women whose pregnancies occurred before 1 year after BS had a higher pre-gestational body mass index (BMI) than those who got pregnant 1 year after BS (34.6 ± 7.7 vs 30.4 ± 5.3 kg/m2, p = 0.007). In pregnancies occurring during the first year after BS, a higher rate of stillbirths was observed compared to pregnancies occurring after this period of time (35.5 vs 16.8 %, p = 0.03). Women who underwent BPD delivered a higher rate of SGA babies than women with RYGB or restrictive procedures (34.8, 12.7, and 8.3 %, respectively). Conclusions. Pregnancy should be scheduled at least 1 year after BS. Malabsorptive procedures are associated to a higher rate of SGA births

Education is associated with lower levels of abdominal obesity in women with a non-agricultural occupation: an interaction study using China's Four Provinces survey.

The prevalence of obesity is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as their populations become exposed to obesogenic environments. The transition from an agrarian to an industrial and service-based economy results in important lifestyle changes. Yet different socioeconomic groups may experience and respond to these changes differently. Investigating the socioeconomic distribution of obesity in LMICs is key to understanding the causes of obesity but the field is limited by the scarcity of data and a uni-dimensional approach to socioeconomic status (SES). This study splits socioeconomic status into two dimensions to investigate how educated women may have lower levels of obesity in a context where labour market opportunities have shifted away from agriculture to other forms of employment. The Four Provinces Study in China 2008/09 is a household-based community survey of 4,314 people aged ≥60  years (2,465 women). It was used to investigate an interaction between education (none/any) and occupation (agricultural/non-agricultural) on high-risk central obesity defined as a waist circumference ≥80 cm. An interaction term between education and occupation was incorporated in a multivariate logistic regression model, and the estimates adjusted for age, parity, urban/rural residence and health behaviours (smoking, alcohol, meat and fruit & vegetable consumption). Complete case analyses were undertaken and results confirmed using multiple imputation to impute missing data. An interaction between occupation and education was present (P = 0.02). In the group with no education, the odds of central obesity in the sedentary occupation group were more than double those of the agricultural occupation group even after taking age group and parity into account (OR; 95%CI: 2.21; 1.52, 3.21), while in the group with any education there was no evidence of such a relationship (OR; 95%CI: 1.25; 0.92, 1.70). Health behaviours appeared to account for some of the association. These findings suggest that education may have a protective role in women against the higher odds of obesity associated with occupational shifts in middle-income countries, and that investment in women's education may present an important long term investment in obesity prevention. Further research could elucidate the mechanisms behind this association