Quasi-Expressivism about Statements of Law: A Hartian Theory

Speech and thought about what the law is commonly function in practical ways, to guide or assess behavior. These functions have often been seen as problematic for legal positivism in the tradition of H.L.A. Hart. One recent response is to advance an expressivist analysis of legal statements (Toh), which faces its own, familiar problems. This paper advances a rival, positivist-friendly account of legal statements which we call “quasi-expressivist”, explicitly modeled after Finlay’s metaethical theory of moral statements. This consists in a descriptivist, “rule-relational” semantics combined with a pragmatic account of the expressive and practical functions of legal discourse. We argue that this approach is at least as well-equipped as expressivism to explain the motivational and prescriptive features of “internal” legal statements, as well as a fundamental kind of legal disagreement, while being better positioned to account for various “external” uses of the same language. We develop this theory in a Hartian framework, and in the final part of the paper argue (particularly against Toh’s expressivist interpretation) that Hart’s own views in The Concept of Law are best reconstructed along such quasi-expressivist lines

Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

The decline in the total fertility rate between 1960 and 2005, coupled with an increase in life expectancy and the dynamic evolution of past variation in birth and death rates, is producing a significant shift in age structure in Asia. The age distribution has shifted from one with a high youth-age population share to one with a high old-age population share. We illustrate the role of these separate forces in shaping the age distribution. We also argue that the economic consequences of population aging depend on behavioral responses to the shift in age structure: the female labor force participation response to the decline in fertility, child quality/quantity trade-off in the face of the fertility decline, savings adjustments to an increase in life expectancy, and social security distortions insofar as the pace of life expectancy improvements is faster than the pace of policy adjustments. We estimate the association between old- and youth-age population shares and economic growth. The results suggest that population aging may not significantly impede economic performance in Asia in the long run.Global health, fertility, Asia, labor, Aging.

The thermal history of the Western Irish onshore

We present here a low-temperature thermochronological study that combines the apatite fission-track and (U + Th)/He dating methods with a pseudo-vertical sampling approach to generate continuous and well-constrained temperature–time histories from the onshore Irish Atlantic margin. The apatite fission-track and (U + Th)/He ages range from the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous and the mean track lengths are relatively short. Thermal histories derived from inverse modelling show that following post-orogenic exhumation the sample profiles cooled to c. 75 °C. A rapid cooling event to surface temperatures occurred during the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous and was diachronous from north to south. It was most probably caused by c. 2.5 km of rift-shoulder related exhumation and can be temporally linked to the main stage of Mesozoic rifting in the offshore basins. A slow phase of reheating during the Late Cretaceous and Early Cenozoic is attributed to the deposition of a thick sedimentary sequence that resulted in c. 1.5 km of burial. Our data imply a final pulse of exhumation in Neogene times, probably related to compression of the margin. However, it is possible that an Early Cenozoic cooling event, compatible with our data but not seen in our inverse models, accounts for part of the Cenozoic exhumation

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

In 1994 the World Bank called East Asia's strong economic growth performance a "miracle". Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only explained part of this growth performance; the remainder was left unexplained. Research in the ensuing years has shown that when demographic change in East Asia is taken into account, the miracle is explained. These earlier studies used the 1960-1990 sample period, but since 1990 Asia has undergone major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. Moreover, rapid demographic change has continued in East Asia, and in Asia more generally, with fertility rates falling below replacement in many of these countries. In this paper, we re-examine the role of the demographic transition in explaining cross-country differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on East Asia. With the working-age share beginning to decline in many Asian countries, innovation and flexibility in the labor market will be required for them to continue to enjoy the high rates of economic growth they have experienced to date.Global health, fertility, Asia, labor, Aging, Economics, Demography.

Realizing the Demographic Dividend: Is Africa any different?

The demographic transition creates a window of opportunity during which economies may benefit from a temporary increase in the working age share of the population. While many economies have already enjoyed these benefits, they remain a promising opportunity for much of Sub-Saharan Africa. We show in this paper that Sub-Saharan Africa adheres to the same principles as the rest of the world with respect to the determinants of economic growth, including particularly the effects of demographic change. Assuming a policy and institutional context that is conducive to economic growth, most Sub-Saharan countries have the potential to reap a sizable demographic dividend.growth, Africa, Demographic Dividend, demography, sub-saharan.

Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

High ratios of working age to dependent population can yield a increases the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 inclusion of age structure improves the model’s forecasts for the period that including age structure improves the forecast, although there instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000–2020.Economic Growth, demography, forecast, evaluation, error decomposition

The Effect of Social Security Reform on Male Retirement in High and Middle Income Countries

We analyze panel data for 40 countries over the period 1970-2000 to examine the effect of social security reforms on the labor supply of older men. The data show a trend towards earlier retirement that can be explained by rising income levels. We find that the average retirement age rises significantly when the normal, or early, social security eligibility age rises, the pension benefits for postponing retirement are increased, or the system shifts from defined benefits to defined contributions. A package of social security reforms is capable of substantially increasing the labor supply of older men.Social security reform, retirement, high and middle income countries

Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a cross-country panel data set using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find a large negative effect of the fertility rate on female labor force participation. The direct effect is concentrated among those aged 20–39, but we find that cohort participation is persistent over time giving an effect among older women. We present a simulation model of the effect of fertility reduction on income per capita, taking into account these changes in female labor force participation as well as population numbers and age structure.

Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.