A proof-of-concept study on mortality prediction with machine learning algorithms using burn intensive care data

INTRODUCTION: Burn injuries are a common traumatic injury. Large burns have high mortality requiring intensive care and accurate mortality predictions. To assess if machine learning (ML) could improve predictions, ML algorithms were tested and compared with the original and revised Baux score. METHODS: Admission data and mortality outcomes were collected from patients at Uppsala University Hospital Burn Centre from 2002 to 2019. Prognostic variables were selected, ML algorithms trained and predictions assessed by analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Comparison was made with Baux scores using DeLong test. RESULTS: A total of 17 prognostic variables were selected from 92 patients. AUCs in leave-one-out cross-validation for a decision tree model, an extreme boosting model, a random forest model, a support-vector machine (SVM) model and a generalised linear regression model (GLM) were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72-0.94), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94), respectively. AUCs for the Baux score and revised Baux score were 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94). No significant differences were observed when comparing ML algorithms with Baux score and revised Baux score. Secondary variable selection was made to analyse model performance. CONCLUSION: This proof-of-concept study showed initial credibility in using ML algorithms to predict mortality in burn patients. The sample size was small and future studies are needed with larger sample sizes, further variable selections and prospective testing of the algorithms. LAY SUMMARY: Burn injuries are one of the most common traumatic injuries especially in countries with limited prevention and healthcare resources. To treat a patient with large burns who has been admitted to an intensive care unit, it is often necessary to assess the risk of a fatal outcome. Physicians traditionally use simplified scores to calculate risks. One commonly used score, the Baux score, uses age of the patient and the size of the burn to predict the risk of death. Adding the factor of inhalation injury, the score is then called the revised Baux score. However, there are a number of additional causes that can influence the risk of fatal outcomes that Baux scores do not take into account. Machine learning is a method of data modelling where the system learns to predict outcomes based on previous cases and is a branch of artificial intelligence. In this study we evaluated several machine learning methods for outcome prediction in patients admitted for burn injury. We gathered data on 93 patients at admission to the intensive care unit and our experiments show that machine learning methods can reach an accuracy comparable with Baux scores in calculating the risk of fatal outcomes. This study represents a proof of principle and future studies on larger patient series are required to verify our results as well as to evaluate the methods on patients in real-life situations.Peer reviewe

Altered adrenal and gonadal steroids biosynthesis in patients with burn injury

Peer reviewe

Matrix Metalloproteinases-8 and-9 and Tissue Inhibitor of Metalloproteinase-1 in Burn Patients. A Prospective Observational Study

Introduction Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) -8 and -9 are released from neutrophils in acute inflammation and may contribute to permeability changes in burn injury. In retrospective studies on sepsis, levels of MMP-8, MMP-9, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) differed from those of healthy controls, and TIMP-1 showed an association with outcome. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between these proteins and disease severity and outcome in burn patients. Methods In this prospective, observational, two-center study, we collected plasma samples from admission to day 21 post-burn, and burn blister fluid samples on admission. We compared MMP-8, -9, and TIMP-1 levels between TBSA20% (N = 30) injured patients and healthy controls, and between 90-day survivors and non-survivors. MMP-8, -9, and TIMP-1 levels at 24-48 hours from injury, their maximal levels, and their time-adjusted means were compared between groups. Correlations with clinical parameters and the extent of burn were analyzed. MMP-8, -9, and TIMP-1 levels in burn blister fluids were also studied. Results Plasma MMP-8 and -9 were higher in patients than in healthy controls (P20% groups. MMP-8 and -9 were not associated with clinical severity or outcome measures. TIMP-1 differed significantly between patients and controls (P20% groups (PPeer reviewe

Intranasal dexmedetomidine and rectal ketamine for young children undergoing burn wound procedures

Background: Safe and effective methods for sedation and analgesia in pediatric burn patients are strongly warranted. This retrospective study of electronic health care records aims to evaluate the safety and efficacy of intranasal dexmedetomidine combined with rectal ketamine as procedural sedation for young children undergoing dressing changes and debridement of burn wounds. Methods: Documentation was analyzed from 90 procedures in 58 pediatric patients aged <5 years. Safety and efficacy of the method were assessed based on documentation for complications, adverse effects, pain level, level of sedation and preoperative and recovery time. Results: All 90 sedations were completed without significant adverse events with acute airway management or medical intervention. The combination of dexmedetomidine-ketamine produced acceptable analgesia during the procedure and effectively relieved postoperative pain. However, the approach was insufficient for 7/58 patients (7.8%); these patients were converted from the dexmedetomidine-ketamine combination to intravenous anesthesia. In 23% of the cases an extra dose of either ketamine of dexmedetomidine was administered. Moreover, there were two cases of delayed awakening with recovery time >120 min. Conclusion: The drug combination intranasal dexmedetomidine and rectal ketamine is a safe and reliable approach for procedural sedation and analgesia in pediatric patients undergoing burn wound procedures, producing a clinically stable sedative condition requiring only basic monitoring

Randomized controlled trial of low vs high oxygen during neonatal anesthesia : Oxygenation, feasibility, and oxidative stress

Background To reduce risk for intermittent hypoxia a high fraction of inspired oxygen is routinely used during anesthesia induction. This differs from the cautious dosing of oxygen during neonatal resuscitation and intensive care and may result in significant hyperoxia. Aim In a randomized controlled trial, we evaluated oxygenation during general anesthesia with a low (23%) vs a high (80% during induction and recovery, and 40% during maintenance) fraction of inspired oxygen, in newborn infants undergoing surgery. Method Thirty-five newborn infants with postconceptional age of 35-44 weeks were included (17 infants in low and 18 in high oxygen group). Oxygenation was monitored by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen, pulse oximetry, and cerebral oxygenation. Predefined SpO2 safety targets dictated when to increase inspired oxygen. Results At start of anesthesia, oxygenation was similar in both groups. Throughout anesthesia, the high oxygen group displayed significant hyperoxia with higher (difference-20.3 kPa, 95% confidence interval (CI)-28.4 to 12.2, p < .001) transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen values than the low oxygen group. While SpO2 in the low oxygen group was lower (difference - 5.8%, 95% CI -9.3 to -2.4, p < .001) during anesthesia, none of the infants spent enough time below SpO(2) safety targets to mandate supplemental oxygen, and cerebral oxygenation was within the normal range and not statistically different between the groups. Analysis of the oxidative stress biomarker urinary F-2-Isoprostane revealed no differences between the low and high oxygen group. Conclusion We conclude that in healthy newborn infants, use of low oxygen during general anesthesia was feasible, while the prevailing practice of using high levels of inspired oxygen resulted in significant hyperoxia. The trade-off between careful dosing of oxygen and risks of hypo- and hyperoxia in neonatal anesthesia should be further examined

Cutaneous steam burns and steam inhalation injuries : a literature review and a case presentation

Scald is one type of burn that s often mentioned alone and occurs mostly in the paediatric population. Inhaled steam is mostly cooled off in the airways, why thermal damage is rarely seen. A sudden exposure to hot steam/inhalation can cause a thermal inhalation injury. A scoping review was performed, with the aim to summarize all published papers in English, about steam-related injuries. The search was conducted using the PubMed (R) and Cochrane libraries on 19th of May 2021, without a set time period. Out of a total of 1186 identified records, 31 were chosen for review. Burns related to the contact with steam are generally rare and can be both minor and severe. The more severe cases related to steam exposure are mostly workplace accidents and the minor injuries reported in the literature are often related to steam inhalation therapy, especially in the paediatric population. This review describes the challenges that can be found dealing with patients suffering from cutaneous steam burns and/or steam inhalation injuries. A steam injury to the airways or the skin can be directly life-threatening and should be treated with caution. This type of injury can lead to acute respiratory insufficiency and sometimes death. A case of a male patient with extensive cutaneous steam burns and a steam inhalation injury who passed away after 11 days of treatment is also presented to illustrate this review. Level of evidence: Level V, Therapeutic; Risk/Prognostic Study

Limitations of the ARDS criteria during high-flow oxygen or non-invasive ventilation : evidence from critically ill COVID-19 patients

Background: The ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to inspired oxygen fraction (PaO2/FIO2) during invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) is used as criteria to grade the severity of respiratory failure in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). During the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, the use of PaO2/FIO2 ratio has been increasingly used in non-invasive respiratory support such as high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV). The grading of hypoxemia in non-invasively ventilated patients is uncertain. The main hypothesis, investigated in this study, was that the PaO2/FIO2 ratio does not change when switching between MV, NIV and HFNC. Methods: We investigated respiratory function in critically ill patients with COVID-19 included in a single-center prospective observational study of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Uppsala University Hospital in Sweden. In a steady state condition, the PaO2/FIO2 ratio was recorded before and after any change between two of the studied respiratory support techniques (i.e., HFNC, NIV and MV). Results: A total of 148 patients were included in the present analysis. We find that any change in respiratory support from or to HFNC caused a significant change in PaO2/FIO2 ratio. Changes in respiratory support between NIV and MV did not show consistent change in PaO2/FIO2 ratio. In patients classified as mild to moderate ARDS during MV, the change from HFNC to MV showed a variable increase in PaO2/FIO2 ratio ranging between 52 and 140 mmHg (median of 127 mmHg). This made prediction of ARDS severity during MV from the apparent ARDS grade during HFNC impossible. Conclusions: HFNC is associated with lower PaO2/FIO2 ratio than either NIV or MV in the same patient, while NIV and MV provided similar PaO2/FIO2 and thus ARDS grade by Berlin definition. The large variation of PaO2/FIO2 ratio indicates that great caution should be used when estimating ARDS grade as a measure of pulmonary damage during HFNC

Temporal development of plasma levels of MMP-9 (ng/ml) in burn patients.

<p>Blue bars represent TBSA<20% patients and green bars TBSA>20% patients. The gray bar represents values from six healthy controls. Samples are grouped in time intervals, calculated from the time of injury. A Kruskall-Wallis test was performed for each time group, except time group 12 (1 patient). After using the Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons, significance was set at <i>P</i><0.003. No significant differences were found at any time-point.</p

Temporal development of plasma levels of TIMP-1 (ng/ml) in burn patients.

<p>Blue bars represent TBSA<20% patients and green bars TBSA>20% patients. The gray bar represents values from six healthy controls. Samples are grouped in time intervals, calculated from the time of injury. A black asterisk indicates a statistically significant difference compared with healthy controls. A Kruskall-Wallis test was performed for each time group, except time group 12 (1 patient). After using the Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons, significance was set at <i>P</i><0.003.</p