Treatment evaluation in the case of interactions within markets

We extend the standard evaluation framework to allow for interactions between individuals within segmented markets. An individualâs outcome depends not only on the assigned treatment status but also on (features of) the distribution of the assigned treatments in his market. To evaluate how the distribution of treatments within a market causally affects the average effect within the market, averaged over the full population, we develop an identification and estimation method in two steps. The first one focuses on the distribution of the treatment within markets and between individuals and the second step addresses the distribution of the treatment between markets. We apply our method to data on training programs for unemployed workers in France. We use a rich administrative register of unemployment and training spells as well as the information on local labor demand that is used by unemployment agencies to allocate training programs. The results show that the average treatment effect on the employment rate causally decreases with respect to the proportion of treated in the market. Our analysis accounts for unobserved heterogeneity between markets (using the longitudinal dimension of the data) and, in a robustness check, between individuals.Treatment evaluation; equilibrium effects; matching estimators

Training the unemployed in France: how does it affect unemployment duration and recurrence?

Econometric evaluations of public-sponsored training programmes generally find little evidence of an impact of such policies on transition rates out of unemployment. We perform the first evaluation of training effects for the unemployed adults in France, exploiting a unique longitudinal dataset from the unemployment insurance system. Using the so-called timing-of-events methodology to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity, we find that training does not accelerate the exit from unemployment, but has a significant and positive effect on the duration of the subsequent employment spell. Accounting for training duration, we find that longer training spells cause longer unemployment spells, but also longer employment spells, suggesting that training improves the matching process between jobseekers and firms

La formation professionnelle des adultes : pour en finir avec les réformes inabouties

Rapport pour l'Institut MontaigneCe rapport analyse le système de la formation professionnelle en France et propose des pistes de réforme

Active Labor Market Policy Effects in a Dynamic Setting

This paper implements a method to identify and estimate treatment effects in a dynamic setting where treatments may occur at any point in time. By relating the standard matching approach to the timing-of-events approach, it demonstrates that effects of the treatment on the treated at a given date can be identified even though non-treated may be treated later in time. The approach builds on a "no anticipation" assumption and the assumption of conditional independence between the duration until treatment and the counterfactual durations until exit. To illustrate the approach, the paper studies the effect of training for unemployed workers in France, using a rich register data set. Training has little impact on unemployment duration. The contamination of the standard matching estimator due to later entries into treatment is large if the treatment probability is high.treatment, program participation, unemployment duration, matching, training, propensity score, contamination bias

Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates

When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.evaluation of labor market programs, training, duration model, timing of events, anticipation

Active labor market policy effects in a dynamic setting

This paper implements a method to identify and estimate treatment effects in a dynamic setting where treatments may occur at any point in time. By relating the standard matching approach to the timing-of-events approach, it demonstrates that effects of the treatment on the treated at a given date can be identified even though non-treated may be treated later in time. The approach builds on a "no anticipation" assumption and the assumption of conditional independence between the duration until treatment and the counterfactual durations until exit. To illustrate the approach, the paper studies the effect of training for unemployed workers in France, using a rich register data set. Training has little impact on unemployment duration. The contamination of the standard matching estimator due to later entries into treatment is large if the treatment probability is high.Treatment; program participation; unemployment duration; training; propensity score; matching; contamination bias

La formation professionnelle des adultes : pour en finir avec les réformes inabouties

Ce rapport analyse le système de la formation professionnelle en France et propose des pistes de réformesFormation professionnelle, paritarisme

Treatment evaluation in the case of interactions within markets

We extend the standard evaluation framework to allow for interactions between individuals within segmented markets. An individual's outcome depends not only on the assigned treatment status but also on (features of) the distribution of the assigned treatments in his market. To evaluate how the distribution of treatments within a market causally affects the average effect within the market, averaged over the full population, we develop an identification and estimation method in two steps. The first one focuses on the distribution of the treatment within markets and between individuals and the second step addresses the distribution of the treatment between markets. We apply our method to data on training programs for unemployed workers in France. We use a rich administrative register of unemployment and training spells as well as the information on local labor demand that is used by unemployment agencies to allocate training programs. The results show that the average treatment effect on the employment rate causally decreases with respect to the proportion treated in the market. Our analysis accounts for unobserved heterogeneity between markets (using the longitudinal dimension of the data) and, in a robustness check, between individuals

Le cas français : approfondir les connaissances empiriques pour mieux cibler la formation

L’article aborde la stratégie de l’OCDE en matière de formation. L’OCDE plaide en faveur d’une accumulation continue de capital humain et ses recommandations tendent à renforcer les incitations des entreprises et des individus à investir dans le capital humain. Si les chiffres confortent l’analyse de l’OCDE concernant l’inégalité d’accès à la formation, c’est moins vrai concernant l’efficacité des politiques de formation elles-mêmes. L’article pose la question essentielle de l’évaluation des dispositifs de formation comme instrument de lutte contre le chômage de longue durée, pour laquelle les auteurs estiment qu’on ne dispose pas d’informations de qualité permettant d’apprécier l’effet des formations sur les parcours professionnels.The issue is about OECD’S strategy about contuining training. OECD is recommending a continue accumulation of human capital reinforcing the incentives towards the firms and the individuals to invest in human capital. Data agree the OECD analysis about a non equal access to continuing training, but it is not true concerning policies efficacy. This article considers as outstanding the training systems assessment, as a fighting device against long-term unemployment. The authors think that we don’t have enough pertinent information in order to estimate the effect of trainings regarding professional trajectories

Randomised Experiments and the Evaluation of Innovative Placement Schemes for the Unemployed

Improving counselling and placement schemes for the unemployed is a key element of active labour-market policies. While a number of academic papers have focussed on jobseeker-centred schemes, we here evaluate new innovative methods that aim to improve caseworker efficiency. Two different treatments are evaluated via randomised experiments. The first provides caseworkers with help in the organization of their time, by allowing them to focus on a limited number of jobseekers. The second consists in increasing the human resources that are devoted to collecting job offers and matching them to jobseekers. The results show that both schemes raise the average exit rate out of unemployment, but that this positive effect is not systematic, as it varies with the individual characteristics of the unemployed. This raises the issue of the spillovers that are generated by such schemes.L’amélioration des dispositifs d’accompagnement et de placement des chômeurs est un enjeu essentiel des politiques actives du marché du travail. Alors que de nombreux travaux académiques s’intéressent aux effets d’interventions centrées sur les demandeurs d’emploi, cet article se propose d’évaluer des méthodes de travail innovantes visant à accroître l’efficacité des conseillers chargés du placement. Au moyen d’une expérimentation aléatoire sont ainsi testés deux dispositifs distincts. Le premier a pour objectif d’inciter les conseillers à mieux organiser leur temps de travail en leur permettant de concentrer ponctuellement leurs efforts sur un nombre réduit de demandeurs d’emploi. Le second consiste à augmenter les ressources dédiées à la recherche d’offres d’emploi et au positionnement des candidats sur ces offres. Les résultats obtenus montrent que les deux dispositifs peuvent améliorer le taux de sortie du chômage, mais que cet effet positif ne vaut pas pour toutes les populations de demandeurs d’emploi, ce qui soulève la question des effets externes de ce type d’actions