On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects

Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of sudden stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations coming hand in hand with Sudden Stops are basically an emerging market (EM) phenomenon. Sudden Stops seem to come in bunches, grouping together countries that are different in many respects. However, countries are similar in that they remain vulnerable to large RER fluctuations – be it because they could be forced to large adjustments in the absorption of tradable goods, and/or because the size of dollar liabilities in the banking system (i.e., domestic liability dollarization, or DLD) is high. Openness, understood as a large supply of tradable goods that reduces leverage over the current account deficit, coupled with DLD, are key determinants of the probability of Sudden Stops. The relationship between Openness and DLD in the determination of the probability of Sudden Stops is highly non-linear, implying that the interaction of high current account leverage and high dollarization may be a dangerous cocktail.

Plan de negocio para la implementaci?n de registro digital de documentaci?n notarial utilizando tecnolog?a Blockchain

El plan de negocio que se desarrolla en el presente proyecto de tesis, es sobre una plataforma tecnol?gica basada en blockchain para el registro de documentos notariales ofreciendo caracter?sticas como integridad, seguridad, inmutabilidad, accesibilidad y visibilidad. De esta manera las notar?as, mediante esta plataforma, brindar?n a sus clientes una alternativa digital con la misma validez que el documento f?sico. Asimismo, esta alternativa les significar?a una fuente de ingresos y un valor agregado a los servicios notariales que actualmente son ofrecidos en este mercado. Debido que el sector notarial de Lima Metropolitana busca una evoluci?n en sus servicios actuales, se realiz? una investigaci?n de mercado y entrevistas a expertos tecnol?gicos en blokchain, desarrollando una propuesta de modelo de negocio que aprovecha las caracter?sticas tecnol?gicas del blockchain para ofrecer un valor de diferenciaci?n a los usuarios finales, a su vez realizando un an?lisis del mercado actual y su desarrollo. Siendo la tecnolog?a propuesta una alternativa superior a otras actuales como la firma digital, todo esto para evitar problemas como la falsificaci?n de documentos o delitos contra la fe p?blica. Sirviendo este documento como referencia para estudios en el sector notarial peruano y a nivel tecnol?gico para nuevos modelos de negocio utilizando tecnolog?as disruptivas

Effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk management program in the incidence of cardiovascular events in a low-income population from the caribbean region of Colombia

Methods This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with 20 to 76 years affiliated to insurer company and enrolled to the DTC program were considered as the study population. The data source was an administrative database of all 128,263 patients between Jan 2015 and Dec 2018. The main outcome was the reduction in the risk of a CVE (stroke, AMI or CHF) based in the time-person exposed to the intervention. Four different time thresholds were considered for stablishing exposure status: six months, one year, two years and four years. Propensity score-weighted Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between exposure to the program and the incidence of CVE

Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of a single annual professional intervention for the prevention of childhood dental caries in a remote rural Indigenous community

Background The aim of the study is to reduce the high prevalence of tooth decay in children in a remote, rural Indigenous community in Australia, by application of a single annual dental preventive intervention. The study seeks to (1) assess the effectiveness of an annual oral health preventive intervention in slowing the incidence of dental caries in children in this community, (2) identify the mediating role of known risk factors for dental caries and (3) assess the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the intervention. Methods/design The intervention is novel in that most dental preventive interventions require regular re-application, which is not possible in resource constrained communities. While tooth decay is preventable, self-care and healthy habits are lacking in these communities, placing more emphasis on health services to deliver an effective dental preventive intervention. Importantly, the study will assess cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness for broader implementation across similar communities in Australia and internationally. Discussion There is an urgent need to reduce the burden of dental decay in these communities, by implementing effective, cost-effective, feasible and sustainable dental prevention programs. Expected outcomes of this study include improved oral and general health of children within the community; an understanding of the costs associated with the intervention provided, and its comparison with the costs of allowing new lesions to develop, with associated treatment costs. Findings should be generalisable to similar communities around the world. The research is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), registration number ACTRN12615000693527; date of registration: 3rd July 2015

GATA2 Promotes Hematopoietic Development and Represses Cardiac Differentiation of Human Mesoderm.

In vertebrates, GATA2 is a master regulator of hematopoiesis and is expressed throughout embryo development and in adult life. Although the essential role of GATA2 in mouse hematopoiesis is well established, its involvement during early human hematopoietic development is not clear. By combining time-controlled overexpression of GATA2 with genetic knockout experiments, we found that GATA2, at the mesoderm specification stage, promotes the generation of hemogenic endothelial progenitors and their further differentiation to hematopoietic progenitor cells, and negatively regulates cardiac differentiation. Surprisingly, genome-wide transcriptional and chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis showed that GATA2 bound to regulatory regions, and repressed the expression of cardiac development-related genes. Moreover, genes important for hematopoietic differentiation were upregulated by GATA2 in a mostly indirect manner. Collectively, our data reveal a hitherto unrecognized role of GATA2 as a repressor of cardiac fates, and highlight the importance of coordinating the specification and repression of alternative cell fates.Ramón y Cajal Program, Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness, Spanish Cancer Association, FERO, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Social Fund, MINECO, PERIS Program of the Generalitat de Catalunya, Obra Social la Caixa-Fundacion Josep Carreras, Spanish Institute of Health Carlos III, Wellcome Trust, MRC, CRUK, NIH-NIDD

Phase IIa trial of fingolimod for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis demonstrates acceptable acute safety and tolerability

ABSTRACT Introduction: Immune activation has been implicated in progression of amytrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Oral fingolimod reduces circulating lymphocytes. The objective of this phase IIa, randomized, controlled trial was to test the short‐term safety, tolerability, and target engagement of fingolimod in ALS. Methods: Randomization was 2:1 (fingolimod:placebo). Treatment duration was 4 weeks. Primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. Secondary outcomes included circulating lymphocytes and whole‐blood gene expression. Results: Thirty participants were randomized; 28 were administered a drug (fingolimod 18, placebo 10). No serious adverse events occurred. Adverse events were similar by treatment arm, as was study discontinuation (2 fingolimod vs. 0 placebo, with no statistical difference). Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1/slow vital capacity changes were similar in the fingolimod and placebo arms. Circulating lymphocytes decreased significantly in the fingolimod arm (P < 0.001). Nine immune‐related genes were significantly downregulated in the fingolimod arm, including forkhead box P3 (P < 0.001) and CD40 ligand (P = 0.003). Discussion Fingolimod is safe and well‐tolerated and can reduce circulating lymphocytes in ALS patients. Muscle Nerve 56: 1077–1084, 201

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, ventilation management, and outcomes in invasively ventilated intensive care unit patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pooled analysis of four observational studies

Background: Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, the practice of ventilation, and outcome in invasively ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remain unexplored. In this analysis we aim to address these gaps using individual patient data of four large observational studies. Methods: In this pooled analysis we harmonised individual patient data from the ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT, and PRoVENT-iMiC prospective observational studies, which were conducted from June, 2011, to December, 2018, in 534 ICUs in 54 countries. We used the 2016 World Bank classification to define two geoeconomic regions: middle-income countries (MICs) and high-income countries (HICs). ARDS was defined according to the Berlin criteria. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patients in MICs versus HICs. The primary outcome was the use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for the first 3 days of mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcomes were key ventilation parameters (tidal volume size, positive end-expiratory pressure, fraction of inspired oxygen, peak pressure, plateau pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory rate), patient characteristics, the risk for and actual development of acute respiratory distress syndrome after the first day of ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality. Findings: Of the 7608 patients included in the original studies, this analysis included 3852 patients without ARDS, of whom 2345 were from MICs and 1507 were from HICs. Patients in MICs were younger, shorter and with a slightly lower body-mass index, more often had diabetes and active cancer, but less often chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure than patients from HICs. Sequential organ failure assessment scores were similar in MICs and HICs. Use of LTVV in MICs and HICs was comparable (42\ub74% vs 44\ub72%; absolute difference \u20131\ub769 [\u20139\ub758 to 6\ub711] p=0\ub767; data available in 3174 [82%] of 3852 patients). The median applied positive end expiratory pressure was lower in MICs than in HICs (5 [IQR 5\u20138] vs 6 [5\u20138] cm H2O; p=0\ub70011). ICU mortality was higher in MICs than in HICs (30\ub75% vs 19\ub79%; p=0\ub70004; adjusted effect 16\ub741% [95% CI 9\ub752\u201323\ub752]; p&lt;0\ub70001) and was inversely associated with gross domestic product (adjusted odds ratio for a US$10 000 increase per capita 0\ub780 [95% CI 0\ub775\u20130\ub786]; p&lt;0\ub70001). Interpretation: Despite similar disease severity and ventilation management, ICU mortality in patients without ARDS is higher in MICs than in HICs, with a strong association with country-level economic status. Funding: No funding