Effects on cardiovascular disease risk of a web-based health risk assessment with tailored health advice: A follow-up study

Introduction: A large proportion of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden can potentially be prevented by primary prevention programs addressing major causal risk factors. A Web- based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback for individual health promotion is a promising strategy. We evaluated the effect on CVD risk of such a program among employees of a Dutch worksite. Methods: We conducted a prospective follow-up study among 368 employees who voluntarily participated in a Web-based HRA program at a single Dutch worksite in 2008. The program included a multicomponent HRA through a Web-based electronic questionnaire, biometrics, and laboratory evaluation. The results were combined with health behavior change theory to generate tailored motivational and educational health advice. On request, a health counseling session with the program physician was available. Follow-up data on CVD risk were collected 1 year after initial participation. The primary outcome was a change in Framingham CVD risk at 6 months relative to baseline. We checked for a possible background effect of an increased health consciousness as a consequence of program introduction at the worksite by comparing baseline measurements of early program participants with baseline measurements of participants who completed the program 6 months later. Results: A total of 176 employees completed follow-up measurements after a mean of 7 months. There was a graded relation between CVD risk changes and baseline risk, with a relative reduction of 17.9% (P = 0.001) in the high-risk category (baseline CVD risk ≥20%). Changes were not explained by additional health counseling, medication, or an increase in health consciousness within the company. Conclusions: Voluntary participation in a Web-based HRA with tailored feedback at the worksite reduced CVD risk by nearly 18% among participants at high CVD risk and by nearly 5% among all participants. Web-based HRA could improve CVD risk in similar populations. Future research should focus on the persistence of the effects underlying the CVD risk reduction

Predictive value of updating framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population

Background: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (<10%), 19% (14%) at intermediate (≥10-<20%), an

Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: The rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

Background: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established.Methods: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared.Results: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences.Conclusions: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: Prospective population based cohort study

Objective: To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework. Design: Prospective population based cohort study. Setting: People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants: 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main outcome measures: First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death. Results: During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1

Personal medical decision making : for prevention of a first cardiovascular event

__Abstract__ Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, accounting for approximately 30% of total mortality. In the Netherlands, the total number of coronary attacks a year is estimated to be 82,100: 6.13 per 1,000 men and 3.91 per 1,000 women. Approximately 35,600 experience a stroke each year: 2.12 per 1,000 men vs. 2.23 per 1,000 women. The majority of CVD events comprises first events. According to American Heart Association statistics, of all coronary attacks approximately 60% is a primary event, whereas 75% of all strokes are first strokes. CVD is a multi-factorial disease par excellence, with a number of modifiable physiological risk factors such as high blood pressure, high total cholesterol, high blood glucose, and high bodymass index. Also modifiable behavioral factors play a causal role and include increased alcohol use, (second-hand) tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. The risk of disease can potentially be diminished through the modification of these risk factors in individuals without a history of CVD

Do different methods of modeling statin treatment effectiveness influence the optimal decision?

Purpose. Modeling studies that evaluate statin treatment for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) use different methods to model the effect of statins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of using different modeling methods on the optimal decision found in such studies. Methods. We used a previously developed and validated Monte Carlo-Markov model based on the Rotterdam study (RISC model). The RISC model simulates coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, cardiovascular death, and death due to other causes. Transition probabilities were based on 5-year risks predicted by Cox regression equations, including (among others) total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol as covariates. In a cost-effectiveness analysis of implementing the ATP-III guidelines, we evaluated the impact of using 3 different modeling methods of statin effectiveness: 1) through lipid level modification: statins lower total cholesterol and increase HDL cholesterol, which through the covariates in the Cox regression equations leads to a lower incidence of CHD and stroke events; 2) fixed risk reduction of CVD events: statins decrease the odds of CHD and stroke with an associated odds ratio that is assumed to be the same for each individual; 3) risk reduction of CVD events proportional to individual change in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol: the relative risk reduction with statin therapy on the incidence of CHD and stroke was assumed to be proportional to the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol levels for each individual. The probability that the ATP-III strategy was cost-effective, compared to usual care as observed in the Rotterdam study, was calculated for each of the 3 modeling methods for varying willingness-to-pay thresholds. Results. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the ATP-III strategy compared with the reference strategy were €56,642/quality-adjusted life year (QALY), €21,369/QALY, and €22,131/QALY for modeling methods 1, 2, and 3, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/QALY, the probability that the ATP-III strategy was cost-effective was about 40% for modeling method 1 and more than 90% for both met

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of four novel risk markers for screening asymptomatic individuals to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the US population

Background High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear. Methods and results A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N = 3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence < 100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in$/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women. Conclusions When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision

Performance of Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictions in the Rotterdam Study taking into account competing risks and disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke

Background To evaluate the performance of Framingham predictions of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death, in an independent European cohort of older individuals and subsequently extend the predictions by disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately. Methods We used the Rotterdam Study data, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 55 years and older (N = 6004), to validate the Framingham predictions of CVD, defined as first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke during 15 years of follow-up, corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death. We subsequently estimated the risks of CHD and stroke separately, and used the sum as a predictor for the total CVD risk. Calibration plots and c-statistics were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results Performance of the Framingham predictions was good in the low- to intermediate risk (≤ 30%, 15-year CVD risk) (17.5% observed vs. 16.6% expected) but poorer in the higher risk (> 30%) categories (36.3% observed vs. 44.1% expected). The c-statistic increased from 0.66 to 0.69 after refitting. Separately estimating CHD and stroke revealed considerable heterogeneity with regard to the contribution of CHD and stroke to total CVD risk. Conclusions Framingham CVD risk predictions perform well in the low- to intermediate risk categories in the Rotterdam Study. Disentangling CVD into CHD and stroke separately provides additional information about the individual contribution of CHD and stroke to total individual CVD risk

Time-limited trials of intensive care for critically Ill patients with cancer

__Importance__ Time-limited trials of intensive care are commonly used in patients perceived to have a poor prognosis. The optimal duration of such trials is unknown. Factors such as a cancer diagnosis are associated with clinician pessimism and may affect the decision to limit care independent of a patient’s severity of illness. __Objective__ To identify the optimal duration of intensive care for short-term mortality in critically ill patients with cancer. __Design, Setting, and Participants__ Decision analysis using a state-transition microsimulation model was performed to simulate the hospital course of patients with poor-prognosis primary tumors, metastatic disease, or hematologic malignant neoplasms admitted to medical and surgical intensive care units. Transition probabilities were derived from 920 participants stratified by sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores to identify severity of illness. The model was validated in 3 independent cohorts with 349, 158, and 117 participants from quaternary care academic hospitals. Monte Carlo microsimulation was performed, followed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Outcomes were assessed in the overall cohort and in solid tumors alone. __Interventions__ Time-unlimited vs time-limited trials of intensive care. __Main Outcomes and Measures__ 30-day all-cause mortality and mean survival duration. __Results__ The SOFA scores at ICU admission were significantly associated with mortality. A 3-, 8-, or 15-day trial of intensive care resulted in decreased mean 30-day survival vs aggressive care in all but the sickest patients (SOFA score, 5-9: 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%], 60.6% [95% CI, 60.2%-61.1%], and 66.8% [95% CI, 66.4%-67.2%], respectively, vs 74.6% [95% CI, 74.3%-75.0%] with time-unlimited aggressive care; SOFA score, 10-14: 36.2% [95% CI, 35.8%-36.6%], 44.1% [95% CI, 43.6%-44.5%], and 46.1% [95% CI, 45.6%-46.5%], respectively, vs 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%] with aggressive care; SOFA score, ≥15: 5.8% [95% CI, 5.6%-6.0%], 8.1% [95% CI, 7.9%-8.3%], and 8.3% [95% CI, 8.1%-8.6%], respectively, vs 8.8% [95% CI, 8.5%-9.0%] with aggressive care). However, the clinical magnitude of these differences was variable. Trial durations of 8 days in the sickest patients offered mean survival duration that was no more than 1 day different from time-unlimited care, whereas trial durations of 10 to 12 days were required in healthier patients. For the subset of patients with solid tumors, trial durations of 1 to 4 days offered mean survival that was not statistically significantly different from time-unlimited care. __Conclusions and Relevance__ Trials of ICU care lasting 1 to 4 days may be sufficient in patients with poor-prognosis solid tumors, whereas patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms or less severe illness seem to benefit from longer trials of intensive care

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke

Objectives: To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS). Methods: We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38%male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41%male, median follow-up 12.8 years. Among these participants, 325 ICH events, 2,559 IS events, and 9,909 nonstroke deaths occurred. We developed 10-year cumulative incidence functions for ICH and IS using stratified Cox regression and competing risks analysis. Basic models including only established nonlaboratory risk factors were extended with diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and glomerular filtration rate. The cumulative incidence functions' performances were cross-validated in each cohort separately by Harrell C-statistic and calibration plots. Results: High total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio decreased the ICH rates but increased IS rates (p for difference across stroke types <0.001). For both the ICH and IS models, C statistics increased more by model extension in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Study cohorts. Improvements in C statistics were reproduced by cross-validation. Models were well calibrated in all cohorts. Correlations between 10-year ICH and IS risks were moderate in each cohort. Conclusions: We developed and cross-validated cumulative incidence functions for separate prediction of 10-year ICH and IS risk. These functions can be useful to further specify an individual's stroke risk