A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several <it>concerns </it>about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these <it>concerns </it>and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility.</p

Curcumin Enhances Neurogenesis and Cognition in Aged Rats: Implications for Transcriptional Interactions Related to Growth and Synaptic Plasticity

Background: Curcumin has been demonstrated to have many neuroprotective properties, including improvement of cognition in humans and neurogenesis in animals, yet the mechanism of such effects remains unclear. Methodology: We assessed behavioural performance and hippocampal cell proliferation in aged rats after 6- and 12-week curcumin-fortified diets. Curcumin enhanced non-spatial and spatial memory, as well as dentate gyrate cell proliferation as compared to control diet rats. We also investigated underlying mechanistic pathways that might link curcumin treatment to increased cognition and neurogenesis via exon array analysis of cortical and hippocampal mRNA transcription. The results revealed a transcriptional network interaction of genes involved in neurotransmission, neuronal development, signal transduction, and metabolism in response to the curcumin treatment. Conclusions: The results suggest a neurogenesis- and cognition-enhancing potential of prolonged curcumin treatment i

25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong

Megatrends in Global Affairs

This lecture covers the major trends at work in the world today: from melting ice frontiers to new regional trade agreements, drone proliferation to income inequality, fuzzy ideological faultiness to supposed global power shifts, immigration debates to endangered ecosystems and terrorism to tax havens

Reflexiones sobre el análisis de las políticas externas latinoamericanas

A few months ago, those interested in international relations in Latin America witnessed the almost simultaneous appearance of two collections of essays on Latin American foreign policies: Jennie K. Lincoln and Elizabeth G. The Dynamics of Latin American Foreign Policies; and Heraldo Muñoz and Joseph S. Tulchin (editors), Latin American Nations in World Politics. This work is an essay review of both volumes. It is not intended to assess the quality of each of the trials; but rather to use both compilations as a starting point to reflect on the usefulness of various theoretical approaches and concepts, common to the study of general international relations and foreign policy, when it comes to applying them to Latin America.Hace unos meses los interesados en las relaciones internacionales de América Latina presenciamos la aparición casi simultánea de dos recopilaciones de ensayos sobre políticas externas latinoamericanas: Jennie K. Lincoln y Elizabeth G. The Dynamics of Latin American Foreign Policies; y Heraldo Muñoz y Joseph S. Tulchin (editores), Latin American Nations in World Politics. El presente trabajo es una reseña ensayística de ambos volúmenes. No pretende evaluar la calidad de cada uno de los ensayos; sino utilizar ambas recopilaciones como punto de partida para reflexionar acerca de la utilidad de diversos enfoques y conceptos teóricos, comunes al estudio de las relaciones internacionales generales y de la política externa, cuando se trata de aplicarlos a América Latina

De la superpuissance avant et après le 11 septembre 2001 : Une perspective post internationale

Contrairement aux prédictions alarmistes, le 11 septembre n’a pas fondamentalement changé les structures et processus de base de la politique mondiale tels que décrits par la perspective post internationale. Bien que l’avènement de la globalisation du terrorisme, d’individus ou groupes prêts à donner leur vie en ravageant les populations civiles, aussi bien en dehors qu’à l’intérieur de conflits locaux et à travers les frontières, puisse être classé comme un changement paradigmatique de grande ampleur comparable à la révolution nucléaire, les turbulences qui en résultent n’ont que peu de rapport avec l’anarchie entre États, en ce qu’elles sont plutôt les manifestations de la capacité des sphères d’autorité et des entités politiques non gouvernementales à venir défier les États. Dans cette perspective, la superpuissance américaine telle que conçue dans la perspective réaliste est peu susceptible de venir apporter une gouvernance capable de répondre aux exigences des nouveaux désordres.According to many predictions, the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, constitute a genuine watershed in global politics. To be sure, the advent of global terrorism, of individuals and groups willing to forfeit their lives by wreaking havoc on innocent civilians, outside as well as inside local conflicts, and across national boundaries, can be classified as a paradigm-shifting change. But as a matter of fact, the events of nine eleven are consistent with the post-international perspective of world politics, as the turbulence that prevails nowadays has limited relevance to anarchy among states as such and everything to do with the capacity of non-governmental spheres of authority and polities to challenge them. Above all, the American superpower as defined in the realist tradition will be unable to guarantee the global governance international politics is desperately looking for

The Elusive quest continues : theory and global politics/ Ferguson

xviii,302 hal.; 23 cm