Panel discussion II: safeguarding good policy practice

Monetary policy

Implantable acoustic-beacon automatic fish-tracking system

A portable automatic fish tracking system was developed for monitoring the two dimensional movements of small fish within fixed areas of estuarine waters and lakes. By using the miniature pinger previously developed for this application, prototype tests of the system were conducted in the York River near the Virginia Institute of Marine Science with two underwater listening stations. Results from these tests showed that the tracking system could position the miniature pinger signals to within + or - 2.5 deg and + or - 135 m at ranges up to 2.5 km. The pingers were implanted in small fish and were successfully tracked at comparable ranges. No changes in either fish behavior or pinger performance were observed as a result of the implantation. Based on results from these prototype tests, it is concluded that the now commercially available system provides an effective approach to underwater tracking of small fish within a fixed area of interest

Iowa Butter- Vitamin Rich

Folks who eat Iowa butter in generous amounts are rather sure to be getting a great deal of that important vitamin— vitamin A

Leading and Managing the 21st Century Research University: Creating, Implementing, and Sustaining Strategic Change

Universities are competing in an environment in which only the most adaptable to sustainable change will prosper. In order to evolve in this challenging time, universities must embrace strategies for transformational change. This paper reviews two case studies that illustrate the universal applicability of theories of Change Science for achieving sustainable change in stressful times of prosperity and austerity. Understanding the phases of the Change Process that include Creating Vision, Implementing Vision, and Sustaining Vision can promote sustainable change directly related to the culture and mission of the institution

Disease activity flares and pain flares in an early rheumatoid arthritis inception cohort; characteristics, antecedents and sequelae

© 2019 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: RA flares are common and disabling. They are described in terms of worsening inflammation but pain and inflammation are often discordant. To inform treatment decisions, we investigated whether inflammatory and pain flares are discrete entities. Methods: People from the Early RA Network (ERAN) cohort were assessed annually up to 11 years after presentation (n = 719, 3703 person-years of follow up). Flare events were defined in 2 different ways that were analysed in parallel; DAS28 or Pain Flares. DAS28 Flares satisfied OMERACT flare criteria of increases in DAS28 since the previous assessment (≥1.2 points if active RA or ≥ 0.6 points if inactive RA). A ≥ 4.8-point worsening of SF36-Bodily Pain score defined Pain Flares. The first documented episode of each of DAS28 and Pain Flare in each person was analysed. Subgroups within DAS28 and Pain Flares were determined using Latent Class Analysis. Clinical course was compared between flare subgroups. Results: DAS28 (45%) and Pain Flares (52%) were each common but usually discordant, with 60% of participants in DAS28 Flare not concurrently in Pain Flare, and 64% of those in Pain Flare not concurrently in DAS28 Flare. Three discrete DAS28 Flare subgroups were identified. One was characterised by increases in tender/swollen joint counts (14.4%), a second by increases in symptoms (13.1%), and a third displayed lower flare severity (72.5%). Two discrete Pain Flare subgroups were identified. One occurred following low disease activity and symptoms (88.6%), and the other occurred on the background of ongoing active disease and pain (11.4%). Despite the observed differences between DAS28 and Pain Flares, each was associated with increased disability which persisted beyond the flare episode. Conclusion: Flares are both common and heterogeneous in people with RA. Furthermore our findings indicate that for some patients there is a discordance between inflammation and pain in flare events. This discrete flare subgroups might reflect different underlying inflammation and pain mechanisms. Treatments addressing different mechanisms might be required to reduce persistent disability after DAS28 and Pain Flares.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Modeling meander morphodynamics over self-formed heterogeneous floodplains

This work addresses the signatures embedded in the planform geometry of meandering rivers consequent to the formation of floodplain heterogeneities as the river bends migrate. Two geomorphic features are specifically considered: scroll bars produced by lateral accretion of point bars at convex banks and oxbow lake fills consequent to neck cutoffs. The sedimentary architecture of these geomorphic units depends on the type and amount of sediment, and controls bank erodibility as the river impinges on them, favoring or contrasting the river migration. The geometry of numerically generated planforms obtained for different scenarios of floodplain heterogeneity is compared to that of natural meandering paths. Half meander metrics and spatial distribution of channel curvatures are used to disclose the complexity embedded in meandering geometry. Fourier Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Singular Spectrum Analysis and Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis are used to emphasize the subtle but crucial differences which may emerge between apparently similar configurations. A closer similarity between observed and simulated planforms is attained when fully coupling flow and sediment dynamics (fully-coupled models) and when considering self-formed heterogeneities that are less erodible than the surrounding floodplain

Stellar Population Models and Individual Element Abundances I: Sensitivity of Stellar Evolution Models

Integrated light from distant galaxies is often compared to stellar population models via the equivalent widths of spectral features--spectral indices--whose strengths rely on the abundances of one or more elements. Such comparisons hinge not only on the overall metal abundance but also on relative abundances. Studies have examined the influence of individual elements on synthetic spectra but little has been done to address similar issues in the stellar evolution models that underlie most stellar population models. Stellar evolution models will primarily be influenced by changes in opacities. In order to explore this issue in detail, twelve sets of stellar evolution tracks and isochrones have been created at constant heavy element mass fraction Z that self-consistently account for varying heavy element mixtures. These sets include scaled-solar, alpha-enhanced, and individual cases where the elements C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ca, Ti, and Fe have been enhanced above their scaled-solar values. The variations that arise between scaled-solar and the other cases are examined with respect to the H-R diagram and main sequence lifetimes.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, accepted to Ap

Report 49: Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England

To estimate the growth of the Omicron variant of concern (1) and its immune escape (2–9) characteristics, we analysed data from all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England excluding those with a history of recent international travel. We undertook separate analyses according to two case definitions. For the first definition, we included all cases with a definitive negative S-gene Target Failure (SGTF) result and specimen dates between 29/11/2021 and 11/12/2021 inclusive. For the second definition, we included cases with a positive genotype result and specimen date between 23/11/2021 and 11/12/2021 inclusive. We chose a later start date for the SGTF definition to ensure greater specificity of SGTF for Omicron. We used logistic and Poisson regression to identify factors associated with testing positive for Omicron compared to non-Omicron (mostly Delta) cases. We explored the following predictors: day, region, symptomatic status, sex, ethnicity, age band and vaccination status. Our results suggest rapid growth of the frequency of the Omicron variant relative to Delta, with the exponential growth rate of its frequency estimated to be 0.34/day (95% CI: 0.33-0.35) [2.0 day doubling time] over the study period from both SGTF and genotype data. The distribution of Omicron by age, region and ethnicity currently differs markedly from Delta, with 18–29-year-olds, residents in the London region, and those of African ethnicity having significantly higher rates of infection with Omicron relative to Delta. Hospitalisation and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with Omicron infection, suggesting at most limited changes in severity compared with Delta. To estimate the impact of Omicron on vaccine effectiveness (VE) for symptomatic infection we used conditional Poisson regression to estimate the hazard ratio of being an Omicron case (using SGTF definition) compared with Delta, restricting our analysis to symptomatic cases and matching by day, region, 10-year age band, sex and ethnicity. We found a significant increased risk of an Omicron case compared to Delta for those with vaccine status AZ 2+weeks post-dose 2 (PD2) , Pfizer 2+w PD2, AZ 2+w post-dose 3 (PD3) and PF 2+w PD3 vaccine states with hazard ratios of 1.86 (95%CI: 1.67-2.08), 2.68 (95%CI: 2.54-2.83), 4.32 (95%CI: 3.84-4.85) and 4.07 (95%CI: 3.66-4.51), respectively, where PD3 states are categorised by the dose 1/2 vaccine used. Depending on the Delta VE estimates used (10), these estimates translate into Omicron VE estimates of between 0% and 20% PD2 and between 55% and 80% PD3 against Omicron, consistent with other estimates (11). Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty. To assess the impact of Omicron on reinfection rates we relied on genotype data, since SGTF is associated with a higher observed rate of reinfection, likely due to reinfections typically having higher Ct values than primary infections and therefore being subject to a higher rate of random PCR target failure. Controlling for vaccine status, age, sex, ethnicity, asymptomatic status, region and specimen date and using conditional Poisson regression to predict reinfection status, Omicron was associated with a 5.41 (95% CI: 4.87-6.00) fold higher risk of reinfection compared with Delta. This suggests relatively low remaining levels of immunity from prior infection

Population Regulation of Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) by Parasitoids: Does Spatial Density Dependence Lead to Temporal Density Dependence?

In 1987, four gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, (L.) densities were established in eight 1-ha plots in western Massachusetts, ranging from 50,000 to 1.4 M neonates per hectare. Two tachinid parasitoid species, Compsilura concinnata (Meigen) and Parasetigena silvestris (Robineau-Desvoidy), exhibited spatial density-dependent parasistism and C. concinnata was the major source of gypsy moth mortality. This study investigated whether spatial density-dependent mortality in 1987 translated into temporal density-dependent mortality of experimental gypsy moth populations created the following year (1988). C. concinnata was responsible for the largest percentage of gypsy moth mortality again in 1988, however, overall mortality caused by C. concinnata in 1988 was considerably less than in 1987. Gypsy moth mortality caused by P. silvestris was greater in 1988. The killing power of either parasitoid in 1988 were not linearly related to the estimated density of the parasitoids produced in the previous year. We saw no evidence for a between-generation numerical response (1-ha scale) of either the generalist parasitoid, C. concinnata, or the specialist parasitoid, P. silvestris, between 1987 and 198