State estimation of the Labrador Sea with a coupled sea ice-ocean adjoint model

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 2010.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 262-277).Sea ice (SI) and ocean variability in marginal polar and subpolar seas are closely coupled. SI variability in the Labrador Sea is of climatic interest because of its relationship to deep convection/mode water formation, carbon sequestration, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. Historically, quantifying the link between the region's observed SI and oceanic variability has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and SI observations with a three-dimensional time-evolving dynamically consistent numerical model. To elaborate upon the relationship between SI and ocean variability, a one year (1996- 1997) state estimate of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay is constructed and analyzed. The estimate is a synthesis of a regional coupled 32 km ocean and sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and SI data. The synthesis of SI data is made possible with the (novel) adjoint of a thermodynamic SI model. Model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several control variables, such as ocean initial and lateral open boundary conditions and the atmospheric state, to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. It is shown that the SI pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March during which net SI growth/melt approaches zero; newly-formed SI diverges from coastal areas and converges, via wind/ocean forcing, in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). It is further shown that SI converging in the MIZ is primarily ablated by turbulent ocean-SI enthalpy fluxes. The primary source of energy required for sustained MIZ ice ablation is revealed to be the sensible heat reservoir of the subtropical-origin subsurface waters. Enthalpy from the heat reservoir is entrained into the mixed layer via buoyancy loss-driven convective deepening and brought to the SI via vertical mixing. An analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes reveals a critical role of low-salinity upper ocean anomalies for the advancement of SI seaward of the Arctic Water/Irminger Water thermohaline front. Anomalous low-salinity waters slow the rate of buoyancy loss-driven mixed layer deepening, shielding an advancing SI pack from the subsurface heat reservoir, and are conducive to a positive surface stratification enhancement feedback from SI meltwater release, both of which extend SI lifetimes. Preliminary analysis of two additional one-year state estimates (1992-1993, 2003-2004) suggests that interannual hydrographic variability provides a first-order explanation for SI maximum extent anomalies. Additional research on the mechanisms controlling the origin and distribution of upper ocean salinity anomalies is required to further understand observed SI variability in the northwest North Atlantic.by Ian Gouverneur Fenty.Ph.D

ECCO Version 4 Release 3

This note provides a brief synopsis of ECCO Version 4 Release 3.This note provides a brief synopsis of ECCO Version 4 Release 3, an updated edition to the global ocean state estimate described by Forget et al. (2015b, 2016), covering the period 1992-2015.JPL/Caltech and NASA Physical Oceanograph

Local and remote forcing of interannual sea‐level variability at Nantucket Island

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wang, O., Lee, T., Piecuch, C., Fukumori, I., Fenty, I., Frederikse, T., Menemenlis, D., Ponte, R., & Zhang, H. Local and remote forcing of interannual sea‐level variability at Nantucket Island. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127(6), (2022): e2021JC018275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jc018275.The relative contributions of local and remote wind stress and air-sea buoyancy forcing to sea-level variations along the East Coast of the United States are not well quantified, hindering the understanding of sea-level predictability there. Here, we use an adjoint sensitivity analysis together with an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate to establish the causality of interannual variations in Nantucket dynamic sea level. Wind forcing explains 67% of the Nantucket interannual sea-level variance, while wind and buoyancy forcing together explain 97% of the variance. Wind stress contribution is near-local, primarily from the New England shelf northeast of Nantucket. We disprove a previous hypothesis about Labrador Sea wind stress being an important driver of Nantucket sea-level variations. Buoyancy forcing, as important as wind stress in some years, includes local contributions as well as remote contributions from the subpolar North Atlantic that influence Nantucket sea level a few years later. Our rigorous adjoint-based analysis corroborates previous correlation-based studies indicating that sea-level variations in the subpolar gyre and along the United States northeast coast can both be influenced by subpolar buoyancy forcing. Forward perturbation experiments further indicate remote buoyancy forcing affects Nantucket sea level mostly through slow advective processes, although coastally trapped waves can cause rapid Nantucket sea level response within a few weeks.This research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). CGP was supported by NASA Sea Level Change Team awards 80NSSC20K1241 and 80NM0018D0004

Influence of nonseasonal river discharge on sea surface salinity and height

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Chandanpurkar, H. A., Lee, T., Wang, X., Zhang, H., Fournier, S., Fenty, I., Fukumori, I., Menemenlis, D., Piecuch, C. G., Reager, J. T., Wang, O., & Worden, J. Influence of nonseasonal river discharge on sea surface salinity and height. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(2), (2022): e2021MS002715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002715.River discharge influences ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. Due to the lack of a systematic, up-to-date global measurement network for river discharge, global ocean models typically use seasonal discharge climatology as forcing. This compromises the simulated nonseasonal variation (the deviation from seasonal climatology) of the ocean near river plumes and undermines their usefulness for interdisciplinary research. Recently, a reanalysis-based daily varying global discharge data set was developed, providing the first opportunity to quantify nonseasonal discharge effects on global ocean models. Here we use this data set to force a global ocean model for the 1992–2017 period. We contrast this experiment with another experiment (with identical atmospheric forcings) forced by seasonal climatology from the same discharge data set to isolate nonseasonal discharge effects, focusing on sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface height (SSH). Near major river mouths, nonseasonal discharge causes standard deviations in SSS (SSH) of 1.3–3 practical salinity unit (1–2.7 cm). The inclusion of nonseasonal discharge results in notable improvement of model SSS against satellite SSS near most of the tropical-to-midlatitude river mouths and minor improvement of model SSH against satellite or in-situ SSH near some of the river mouths. SSH changes associated with nonseasonal discharge can be explained by salinity effects on halosteric height and estimated accurately through the associated SSS changes. A recent theory predicting river discharge impact on SSH is found to perform reasonably well overall but underestimates the impact on SSH around the global ocean and has limited skill when applied to rivers near the equator and in the Arctic Ocean.This research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) with support from the Physical Oceanography (PO) and Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Programs. High-end computing resources for the numerical simulation were provided by the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at the Ames Research Center

Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Harvey, T., Hamlington, B. D., Frederikse, T., Nerem, R. S., Piecuch, C. G., Hammond, W. C., Blewitt, G., Thompson, P. R., Bekaert, D. P. S., Landerer, F. W., Reager, J. T., Kopp, R. E., Chandanpurkar, H., Fenty, I., Trossman, D. S., Walker, J. S., & Boening, C. W. Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), (2021): 233, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00300-w.Regional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.The research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. C.G.P. was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC20K1241. B.D.H., T.C.H., and T.F. were supported by NASA JPL Task 105393.281945.02.25.04.59. R.E.K. and J.S.W. were supported by U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grants 80NSSC17K0698, 80NSSC20K1724 and JPL task 105393.509496.02.08.13.31) and U.S. National Science Foundation (grant ICER-1663807). P.R.T. acknowledges financial support from the NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing program in support of the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (NA11NMF4320128). The ECCO project is funded by the NASA Physical Oceanography; Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction; and Cryosphere Programs

Oceans Melting Greenland: Early Results from NASA's Ocean-Ice Mission in Greenland

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet represents a major uncertainty in projecting future rates of global sea level rise. Much of this uncertainty is related to a lack of knowledge about subsurface ocean hydrographic properties, particularly heat content, how these properties are modified across the continental shelf, and about the extent to which the ocean interacts with glaciers. Early results from NASA’s five-year Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, based on extensive hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, suggest that many glaciers terminate in deep water and are hence vulnerable to increased melting due to ocean-ice interaction. OMG will track ocean conditions and ice loss at glaciers around Greenland through the year 2020, providing critical information about ocean-driven Greenland ice mass loss in a warming climate

Silk garments plus standard care compared with standard care for treating eczema in children: A randomised, controlled, observer-blind, pragmatic trial (CLOTHES Trial)

© 2017 Thomas et al. Background: The role of clothing in the management of eczema (also called atopic dermatitis or atopic eczema) is poorly understood. This trial evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of silk garments (in addition to standard care) for the management of eczema in children with moderate to severe disease. Methods and findings: This was a parallel-group, randomised, controlled, observer-blind trial. Children aged 1 to 15 y with moderate to severe eczema were recruited from secondary care and the community at five UK medical centres. Participants were allocated using online randomisation (1:1) to standard care or to standard care plus silk garments, stratified by age and recruiting centre. Silk garments were worn for 6 mo. Primary outcome (eczema severity) was assessed at baseline, 2, 4, and 6 mo, by nurses blinded to treatment allocation, using the Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI), which was log-transformed for analysis (intention-to-treat analysis). A safety outcome was number of skin infections. Three hundred children were randomised (26 November 2013 to 5 May 2015): 42% girls, 79% white, mean age 5 y. Primary analysis included 282/300 (94%) children (n = 141 in each group). The garments were worn more often at night than in the day (median of 81% of nights [25th to 75th centile 57% to 96%] and 34% of days [25th to 75th centile 10% to 76%]). Geometric mean EASI scores at baseline, 2, 4, and 6 mo were, respectively, 9.2, 6.4, 5.8, and 5.4 for silk clothing and 8.4, 6.6, 6.0, and 5.4 for standard care. There was no evidence of any difference between the groups in EASI score averaged over all follow-up visits adjusted for baseline EASI score, age, and centre: adjusted ratio of geometric means 0.95, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.07, (p = 0.43). This confidence interval is equivalent to a difference of −1.5 to 0.5 in the original EASI units, which is not clinically important. Skin infections occurred in 36/142 (25%) and 39/141 (28%) of children in the silk clothing and standard care groups, respectively. Even if the small observed treatment effect was genuine, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was £56,811 in the base case analysis from a National Health Service perspective, suggesting that silk garments are unlikely to be cost-effective using currently accepted thresholds. The main limitation of the study is that use of an objective primary outcome, whilst minimising detection bias, may have underestimated treatment effects. Conclusions: Silk clothing is unlikely to provide additional benefit over standard care in children with moderate to severe eczema. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN77261365

Oscillations in a multi-stage R&D process

A system dynamics model is presented of an oscillating R & D process that is driven by resource estimation and allocation mechanisms. We consider the R & D process as a sequence of staged activities whose goal is to deliver new products to the market. These new products generate revenue which feeds back into the R & D process fueling progress. We review the behavior of our system under a range of conditions and design policies that reduce the observed oscillatory behavior

Cooperative loan fund dynamics.

Cooperative Loan Funds, institutions created by both the public and the private sector to break the vicious cycle of poverty and joblessness by providing difficult to access finance while promoting the cooperative style of organization, exhibit varying complex behavioral modes characteristic of dynamic systems. To enhance understanding of generic loan fund dynamics, an archetype model was created using two instances of loan funds: the publicly instituted Industrial Common Ownership Fund (ICOF), and the self-organized North-Country Cooperative Development Fund (NCDF). Model assumptions, mathematical structure, and reasoning are then given in detail in preparation for analysis. Policy space is explored and synthesized leading to a set of superior operating policies that serve to create a loan fund organization that embodies both dynamic growth strategies and robustness in terms of maintaining original lending focus

Hydrographic Preconditioning for Seasonal Sea Ice Anomalies in the Labrador Sea

This study investigates the hydrographic processes involved in setting the maximum wintertime sea ice (SI) extent in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The analysis is based on an ocean and sea ice state estimate covering the summer-to-summer 1996/97 annual cycle. The estimate is a synthesis of in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data with a regional coupled ⅓° ocean–sea ice model. SI advective processes are first demonstrated to be required to reproduce the observed ice extent. With advection, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) location stabilizes where ice melt balances ice mass convergence, a quasi-equilibrium condition achieved via the convergence of warm subtropical-origin subsurface waters into the mixed layer seaward of the MIZ. An analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes reveals a critical role of low-salinity upper ocean (100 m) anomalies for the advancement of SI seaward of the Arctic Water–Irminger Water Thermohaline Front. Anomalous low-salinity waters slow the rate of buoyancy loss–driven mixed layer deepening, shielding an advancing SI pack from the warm subsurface waters, and are conducive to a positive surface meltwater stabilization enhancement (MESEM) feedback driven by SI meltwater release. The low-salinity upper-ocean hydrographic conditions in which the MESEM efficiently operates are termed sea ice–preconditioned waters (SIPW). The SI extent seaward of the Thermohaline Front is shown to closely correspond to the distribution of SIPW. The analysis of two additional state estimates (1992/93, 2003/04) suggests that interannual hydrographic variability provides a first-order explanation for SI maximum extent anomalies in the region.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ARC-1023499)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (MAP Grant NNX11AQ12G