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Quantifying the Influence of Component Failure Probability on Cascading Blackout Risk
The risk of cascading blackouts greatly relies on failure probabilities of
individual components in power grids. To quantify how component failure
probabilities (CFP) influences blackout risk (BR), this paper proposes a
sample-induced semi-analytic approach to characterize the relationship between
CFP and BR. To this end, we first give a generic component failure probability
function (CoFPF) to describe CFP with varying parameters or forms. Then the
exact relationship between BR and CoFPFs is built on the abstract
Markov-sequence model of cascading outages. Leveraging a set of samples
generated by blackout simulations, we further establish a sample-induced
semi-analytic mapping between the unbiased estimation of BR and CoFPFs.
Finally, we derive an efficient algorithm that can directly calculate the
unbiased estimation of BR when the CoFPFs change. Since no additional
simulations are required, the algorithm is computationally scalable and
efficient. Numerical experiments well confirm the theory and the algorithm
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