Return to Training and Establishment Size: A Reexamination of the Size-Wage Puzzle

The paper reexamines the employer size-wage puzzle using NLSY79 data. The empirical results show that even for those who never receive any training from their employers, size-wage premium still exists and is quantitatively important. Wage increases associated with receiving on-the-job training are less in large establishments than in small ones. In addition, there is no evidence that starting wages in large establishments are lower than in small establishments. Theories that explain the size-wage puzzle using training and other endogenous productivity differences are not consistent with these new findings.size-wage premium, return to training, establishment size

Cherry-Picking in Labor Market with Imperfect Information

We study a competitive labor market with imperfect information. In our basic model, the labor market consists of heterogeneous workers and ex ante identical firms who have only imperfect private information about workers' productivities. Firms compete by posting wages in order to cherry-pick more productive workers from the applicant pool. The model predicts many important empirical regularities, including non-degenerated firm size distribution, persistent wage dispersion, and employer size-wage premium. We also consider extensions of the model where firms differ in either productivity or information about worker types, both generating assortative matching with a positive but imperfect correlation of worker and firm types. The main insight of this paper is that identical workers can get different wages depending on productivities of their coworkers in a competitive market with informational frictions. Our model also sheds light on inter-industry wage differential and sorting between industry and worker characteristics.imperfect information, cherry-picking, wage dispersion, size-wage premium, inter-industry wage differential

Parental Education and Wages: Evidence from China

Using nationally representative data in China, we find substantial positive partial correlations of both parents' education with one's wage. In addition, returns to father's education are higher in more monopsonistic and less meritocratic labor markets, including non-coastal regions, the state-owned sector, and the early periods of the reform era. The opposite is, however, true with respect to mother's education. Overall, the empirical evidence is consistent with the story that father's education mainly indicates family connections useful for locating a better-paying first job, while mother's education primarily captures unmeasured ability.parental education, wages, family connections, unmeasured ability

Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of U.S. Unemployment Rates

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official U.S. unemployment rates substantially underestimate the true levels of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in labor force status in Current Population Surveys. Our closed-form identification of the misclassification probabilities relies on the key assumptions that the misreporting behaviors only depend on the true values and that the true labor force status dynamics satisfy a Markov-type property. During the period of 1996 to 2009, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are 1 to 4.6 percentage points (25% to 45%) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. Labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction. We also provide results for various subgroups of the U.S. population defined by gender, race and age.unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, misclassification, measurement error, Current Population Survey

Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States

We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.

Levels and long-term trends in earnings inequality: Overcoming Current Population Survey censoring problems using the GB2 distribution

Over its history, the March Current Population Survey (CPS) has increasingly captured the upper tail of the distribution of all sources of income. This, together with time-consistency problems in top coding, means that users of both the public-use and restricted-access CPS will understate the level of wage earnings and income inequality in earlier years and overstate their growth over time. We address this problem by modeling the personal earnings of full-time, full-year workers using the generalized beta distribution of the second kind, calculating Gini coefficients from the estimated parameters, and comparing them with past findings

Using the P90/P10 Index to Measure US Inequality Trends with Current Population Survey Data: A View from Inside the Census Bureau Vaults*

The March Current Population Survey (CPS) is the primary data source for estimation of levels and trends in labor earnings and income inequality in the USA. Time-inconsistency problems related to top coding in theses data have led many researchers to use the ratio of the 90th and 10th percentiles of these distributions (P90/P10) rather than a more traditional summary measure of inequality. With access to public use and restricted-access internal CPS data, and bounding methods, we show that using P90/P10 does not completely obviate time-inconsistency problems, especially for household income inequality trends. Using internal data, we create consistent cell mean values for all top-coded public use values that, when used with public use data, closely track inequality trends in labor earnings and household income using internal data. But estimates of longer-term inequality trends with these corrected data based on P90/P10 differ from those based on the Gini coefficient. The choice of inequality measure matters.inequality, income, earnings, Current Population Survey, decile ratio, Gini coefficient

Recent trends in top income shares in the USA: Reconciling estimates from March CPS and IRS tax return data

Although the majority of research on US income inequality trends is based on public-use March CPS data, a new wave of research using IRS tax return data reports substantially higher levels of inequality and faster growing trends. We show that these apparently inconsistent estimates are largely reconciled if the inequality measure and the income distribution are defined in the same way. Using internal CPS data for 1967–2006, we closely match IRS data-based estimates of top income shares reported by Piketty and Saez (2003). Our results imply that any inequality increases since 1993 are concentrated among the top 1 percent of the distribution.US Income Inequality, Top income shares, March CPS, IRS tax return data.

Measuring Inequality Using Censored Data: A Multiple Imputation Approach

To measure income inequality with right censored (topcoded) data, we propose multiple imputation for censored observations using draws from Generalized Beta of the Second Kind distributions to provide partially synthetic datasets analyzed using complete data methods. Estimation and inference uses Reiter's (Survey Methodology 2003) formulae. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) internal data, we find few statistically significant differences in income inequality for pairs of years between 1995 and 2004. We also show that using CPS public use data with cell mean imputations may lead to incorrect inferences about inequality differences. Multiply-imputed public use data provide an intermediate solution.Income inequality, topcoding, partially synthetic data, CPS, current population survey, generalized beta of the second kind distribution

Measuring inequality using Censored data: A multiple imputation approach

To measure income inequality with right censored (topcoded) data, we propose multiple imputation for censored observations using draws from Generalized Beta of the Second Kind distributions to provide partially synthetic datasets analyzed using complete data methods. Estimation and inference uses Reiter’s (Survey Methodology 2003) formulae. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) internal data, we find few statistically significant differences in income inequality for pairs of years between 1995 and 2004. We also show that using CPS public use data with cell mean imputations may lead to incorrect inferences about inequality differences. Multiply-imputed public use data provide an intermediate solution.Income Inequality, Topcoding, Partially Synthetic Data, CPS, Current Population Survey, Generalized Beta of the Second Kind distribution