U.S. Budget Deficits and the European Economies: Resolving the Political Economy Puzzle

This paper, prepared for the annual meetings of the American Economic Association, discusses how the increases in the U.S. budget deficits since 1980 have affected the economies of Western Europe. The analysis emphasizes that U.S. deficits have not only affected these economies directly but have also induced them to adopt more restrictive monetary and fiscal policies than they would otherwise have chosen. This induced shift in domestic policies is the primary reason why European governments have pressed for a reduction in the U.S. budget deficits despite the favorable impact of those deficits on European trade surpluses.

The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year

The creation of the euro and the European Central Bank is a remarkable and unprecedented event in economic and political history: creating a supranational central bank and leaving eleven countries without national currencies of their own. The experience of the first year confirms that one size fits all' monetary policy is not suitable for Europe because cyclical and inflation conditions vary substantially among countries. Labor market policies during this first year will increase this problem in the future and may lead to more trade protectionism. The paper explores reasons why cyclical unemployment, structural unemployment, and inflation may all be higher in the future as a result of the single currency. Although some advocate the euro despite its economic problems because of its assumed favorable effects on European political cohesiveness, the paper argues that it is more likely to lead to political conflict within Europe and with the Unites States.

The Future of Social Security Pensions in Europe

This paper discusses a possible solution to the double problem that faces European governments in dealing with the future of Social Security pensions. Like other governments around the world, they must deal with the rising cost of pensions that will result from the increasing life expectancy of the population. But the European governments have the extra problem that any solution must be compatible with a European Union labor market in which individuals from any member country are free to work anywhere within the European Union. The solution to this double problem that is developed in this paper combines an investment-based system of individual accounts with a 'notional defined contribution' system financed by pay-as-you-go taxes.

Imperfect Annuity Markets, Unintended Bequests, and the Optimal Age Structure of Social Security Benefits

The social security program now provides a constant real benefit throughout each retirees lifetime. This paper examines whether total welfare would rise if benefits were lower in early retirement years (when most individuals have some saving with which to finance consumption) and higher in later years (when the uncertainty of survival and the absence of actuarially fair private annuities makes the availability of social security benefits more important.) The analysis shows that there is a potentially important difference between the structure of benefits that would be preferred by the current population of workers and retirees and the structure of benefits that would maximize the steady state level of social welfare. This difference reflects the role of unintended bequests. The provision of higher benefits to older retirees reduces individually optimal savings and therefore the level of unintended bequests. While those bequests may have no value to the retirees, they are clearly of value to the young workers who will receive those bequests. More generally, the system of level benefits raises the steady state level of the capital stock and of total real income. The present paper provides an explicit analysis of a case in which the current workers want benefits to increase with age while the social security system that maximizes steady state welfare would provide higher benefits to young retirees than to the very old.

Housing, credit and consumer expenditure: general discussion

Mortgages ; Housing ; Consumer behavior

Capital Taxation

This paper is an introductory chapter to a book that brings together 22 of my papers written between 1965 and 1981. The chapter provides a summary of each paper and a more general discussion of the role of taxation in influencing the process of capita1 accumulation. The four sections of the book are: (1) Household and Corporate Saving; (2) Portfolio Behavior; (3) Business Investment and (4) Tax Incidence in a Growing Economy.