Modelling geographical variations in fertility and population density of Italian and foreign populations at the local scale: A spatial Durbin approach for Italy (2002–2018).

Studies on fertility determinants have frequently pointed to the role that socio-economic, cultural and institutional factors play in shaping reproductive behaviours. Yet, little is known about these determinants at an ecological level, although it is widely recognised that demographic dynamics strongly interact with ecosystems. This research responds to the need to enhance the knowledge on variations in fertility across space with an analysis of the relationship between fertility and population density of Italians and foreigners in Italy at the municipal level for the period 2002–2018. Using global and local autocorrelation measures and a spatial Durbin model, we show that there is a negative association between the fertility and population density of the Italian population, while the density of foreigners is correlated with higher fertility. This second result poses new insights on the relationship between space and fertility. Moreover, we find that the features of neighbouring areas, measured by population density, contribute significantly to explaining spatial fertility variation, confirming the importance of the study of spatial diffusion in demographic processes

Migración en la región mediterránea: una respuesta a las crisis y una emergencia por derecho propio

Migration is an obvious response to political, economic, socio-demographic, and ecological crises. In recent decades, several crises have occurred in the Mediterranean region; consequently, migration has intensified, the geography of flows has been altered, and the roles of some countries within the Mediterranean migration system have rapidly changed. This paper aims to delineate an overview of migration flows in this region over the last 20 years, focusing on the new migration flows related to humanitarian crises. In doing so, the present study also examines similarities and differences between past and current migration factors that shape the decisions of individuals. Migration flows are closely linked to the needs and fears of European societies. Following this logic, and by analysing challenges related to demographic and geopolitical dimensions in the future scenario, this study discusses the necessity of new policy responses.Las migraciones son una respuesta obvia a las crisis políticas, económicas, sociales y ecológicas. Durante las últimas décadas se han producido varias crisis en la región mediterránea; en consecuencia, las migraciones se han intensificado, la geografía de los flujos se ha alterado y los papeles de algunos países dentro del sistema migratorio mediterráneo han cambiado rápidamente. Este artículo pretende ofrecer una visión general de los flujos migratorios en esta región durante los últimos veinte años, centrándose en los nuevos flujos relacionados con las crisis humanitarias. El presente estudio también examina similitudes y diferencias entre los factores migratorios pasados y actuales que influyen sobre las decisiones individuales. Los flujos migratorios están estrechamente vinculados a las necesidades y a los desasosiegos de las sociedades europeas. Siguiendo esta lógica, al analizar los desafíos relacionados con las dimensiones demográficas y geopolíticas en el escenario futuro, este estudio discute la necesidad de una nueva respuesta política.Part of this work was carried out within the financial support provided by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, 2017 MIUR-PRIN Grant N. 2017W5B55Y (“The Great Demographic Recession”) and within the Horizon2020 FUME project (Future Migration Scenarios for Europe), Grant ID. 870649. Project website: https://futuremigration.eu & https://greatdemographicrecession.home.blo

Does regional development explain international youth mobility?

In this essay, we tackle the issue of the international mobility of young Italians in relation to regional disparities. Our intention is to determine if and to what extent a relationship exists between regional development and the international mobility of young people. We analyze the international migration of Italian citizens aged 15-34 who left the country in the period 2010-2017 using several variables that reflect the varying conditions found in different NUTS 3-level regions in terms of economic dynamism, labor-market efficiency, social fragility, educational underdevelopment and spatial peripherality.Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models show that the international mobility of young Italians is very much dependent on local conditions and affected by spatial differences. It is greatest in the most economically dynamic areas of the country, in border regions and in metropolitan areas, with factors relating to spatial proximity and peripherality, imbalances in local labor markets, and paucity of human capital proving particularly significant.Dans cet article, nous abordons la question de la mobilité internationale des jeunes Italiens par rapport aux disparités régionales. Notre intention est de déterminer si et dans quelle mesure une relation existe entre le développement régional et la mobilité internationale des jeunes. Nous analysons la migration internationale des citoyens italiens âgés de 15 à 34 ans qui ont quitté le pays entre 2010 et 2017 en utilisant plusieurs variables reflétant les différents niveaux de dynamisme économique, efficience du marché du travail, fragilité sociale, retard culturel et périphéricité spatiale des zones NUTS 3.Les modèles de moindres carrés ordinaires (OLS) et de régression pondérée géographique (GWR) montrent que la mobilité internationale des jeunes Italiens est un phénomène très dépendant des conditions locales et affecté par les différences spatiales. Elle est intense dans les zones les plus dynamiques du pays, dans les régions transfrontalières et dans les agglomérations métropolitaines. Les facteurs les plus importants sont liés à la proximité spatiale et à la périphéricité, aux déséquilibres des marchés locaux du travail et au retard en termes de dotation en capital humain

Comparing Residential Segregation of Migrant Populations in Selected European Urban and Metropolitan Areas

Residential segregation is a well studied subject especially after the publication of the pioneering and seminal contribution of Duncan and Duncan (Am Sociol Rev 41:210–217, 1955). Considering the theoretical and methodological advances made since then, the contribution endeavours in describing and understanding the diferences in residential segregation in an international perspective using 2011 population census data. The contribution analyses the residential segregation of migrants (here foreign citizens or foreign born) usually resident in the 493 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) of selected European Union countries. The analysis is conducted using 2011 census data on regular grid (100 mt×100 mt) provided by the Data Challenge on ‘Integration of Migrants in Cities’ (D4I) and refers to all migrants and to two sub groups (EU 28 and non EU 28). In a frst step the levels and spatial patterns of residential segregation across all FUAs of France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom are analysed. Particular attention is paid to identifying diferences and similarities between the FUAs, among and within the single countries. In a further analysis the relationship between the level of residential segregation in the metropolitan FUAs of the selected EU countries and contextual demographic and socio-economic factors are investigated. Results indicate that, even if, the larger metropolitan areas attract more migrants, the highest levels of residential segregation are observed in smaller urban areas. Moreover important national peculiarities emerge clearly with countries of northwestern Europe recording lower levels of residential segregation compared to the Southern European countries. Finally, residential segregation shows clear relationships with some contextual factors, especially the ones related to economic well-being and the labour market in a positive manner

Population Change and International and Internal Migration in Italy, 2002-2017: Ravenstein Revisited

In 1885, Ravenstein formulated his "laws" of migration, based on the experience of the British Isles. In a further 1889 paper, he extended his analysis as a tour d’horizon of migration and population changes in other nations, including Italy. Even if social and economic processes including globalisation and rising mobility have changed the world since then, Ravenstein's "laws" remain a point of reference today. Harnessing theoretical and methodological advances made since the 19th century, this paper describes and seeks to explain the role of international and internal migration in regional population change in Italy from 2002-2017. This paper provides the first geographically detailed migration analysis for the country's 611 Local Labour Market Areas (LLMAs), using register-based migration and population data. Our contribution focuses on several of Ravenstein's "laws" relating to gender (differences between men and women), natives and non-natives (differences between the Italian and the foreign population), distance migrated from origin to destination, and the role of the economy in shaping push and pull factors of migration. The results show that international migration is more prominent among men than women. In the case of internal moves, the rates of migration among men and women are similar, and internal migration is more prominent among the foreign than the native Italian population. Overall, international migration gains contribute substantially more to population change than internal migration gains and losses do. In Italy, the effects of persistent economic imbalances and of distance on migration patterns are not in line with Ravenstein's hypotheses: not all areas with high unemployment show an effect of dispersion, nor does distance always act as a deterrent to migration. The geographically detailed analysis presented here illustrates the temporal and spatial coexistence of diverse international and internal migration processes depending on local characteristics, as well as the importance of the economic or administrative centres as the driving force behind national patterns. Our results show that, even 130 years after their formulation, Ravenstein’s migration "laws" (more accurately called "hypotheses" today) are still a valuable starting point in assessing and understanding migration processes and their role in regional population change

The importance of spatial adjustment processes in the labour force: the case of Albania

Using census data on work commuting in Albania – collected for the first time in 2011 – this study examines the spatial adjustment processes between demand and supply of labour across the country. The first part focuses on the spatial adjustment of labour forces that occur within and between Albanian’s prefectures. Several statistical indicators, derived using origin-destination matrices, measure the differential levels of attraction and expulsion of each prefecture. Results show a high level of heterogeneity and emphasise the crucial role of spatial contiguity among prefectures on this spatial dynamic. The second part examines the role of the municipality of Tirana. This is first investigated within a three-territorial-units system (the municipality of Tirana, rest of the prefecture and rest of Albania) and then within the prefecture as a closed system. Interestingly, 71.5% of all the commuting flows directed to the Municipality originate from municipalities located very close to Tirana (less than 10 km). We conclude that the spatial structure of the prefecture, reasonably extendable to the whole country, can be defined as monocentric. Further studies should focus on the implied costs of this system to the society and environment of Albania

The importance of spatial adjustment processes in the labour force: the case of Albania

Using census data on work commuting in Albania – collected for the first time in 2011 – this study examines the spatial adjustment processes between demand and supply of labour across the country. The first part focuses on the spatial adjustment of labour forces that occur within and between Albanian’s prefectures. Several statistical indicators, derived using origin-destination matrices, measure the differential levels of attraction and expulsion of each prefecture. Results show a high level of heterogeneity and emphasise the crucial role of spatial contiguity among prefectures on this spatial dynamic. The second part examines the role of the municipality of Tirana. This is first investigated within a three-territorial-units system (the municipality of Tirana, rest of the prefecture and rest of Albania) and then within the prefecture as a closed system. Interestingly, 71.5% of all the commuting flows directed to the Municipality originate from municipalities located very close to Tirana (less than 10 km). We conclude that the spatial structure of the prefecture, reasonably extendable to the whole country, can be defined as monocentric. Further studies should focus on the implied costs of this system to the society and environment of Albania