Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia

This paper investigates the impact of the relative growth of skilled migration on the structure of Australian wages. Unlike conventional approaches, the present study uses macro data to examine the response of wages to immigration flows. We use instrumental variable (IV) techniques to deal with the potential endogeneity of immigration. Results from alternative estimation strategies support the many prevailing empirical findings. There is no robust evidence that a relative increase in skilled immigrants exerts discernible adverse consequences on the wage structure in Australia.Immigration, wage, endogeneity, instrumental variable

POPULATION AGEING AND LABOUR SUPPLY PROSPECTS IN CHINA FROM 2005 TO 2050

Increasing life expectancy and rapid fertility decline in China since the 1970s have accelerated the rate of population ageing, fuelling the prospects of an ageing workforce and a significant slowdown in the growth of the working age population. The present paper examines the trend of labour supply in China over the next 45 years under alternative fertility scenarios by taking account of the demographic composition effect and potential trends of the age-and sex-specific labour force participation rates. The main finding is that the labour supply contraction will accelerate from 2020 onwards in response to population ageing and the probable attrition of the LFPR of the young population. Relaxing the current one-child policy may moderate the adverse labour market consequences by increasing the base of the working age population and decelerate the rate of population ageing.population ageing, labour supply and China

CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT INTERDEPENDENCE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This study uses two alternative specifications to test the interdependence between the current and capital accounts of the balance of payments. The empirical specifications, derived from the balance of payments constraint and from national income accounting relationships, respectively, yield consistent support for the interdependence hypothesis. The balance of payments specification returns positive findings for nine of the ten sample countries. These are corroborated by the general equilibrium specification in three instances. Neglect of the comprehensive lag structure of the underlying model may account for the relatively weak support from the general equilibrium specification of the interdependence hypothesis.Current account; Capital account; Developing countries; G-5; Interdependence

Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia*

This paper addresses the implications of the increasing skill intensity of cross-border migration flows for labour market outcomes in host countries. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the relative growth of skilled migrants on domestic wages in Australia over the last quarter century (1980-2006). We use instrumental variable (IV) estimation techniques to deal with the potential endogeneity of immigration. Unlike most of the previous literature, we use macro data to allow for the adjustment of wages and aggregate demand to immigration flows. However, the limited time span of such data raises problems of small sample bias. We address the small sample bias problem by using Jackknife IV estimation. Our basic finding challenges popular presumptions about the adverse wage implications of immigration. However, our examination of the skill composition of migration flows supports the many prevailing empirical findings that immigration need not cause labour market outcomes to deteriorate. Specifically, we do not find any robust evidence that a relative increase in arrivals of skilled immigrants exerts discernible adverse consequences on wages in Australia.Immigration, wage, endogeneity, instrumental variable.

Immigrant and Native Saving Behaviour in Australia

This paper examines whether the differences in the observed savings of immigrant and native households in Australia are related to underlying differences in observable characteristics of the two groups of households or to environmental factors. We use quantile regression and semi-parametric decomposition methods to identify the savings differential, and to isolate the factors that contribute to it. The basic finding is that while income can fully account for the observed difference in immigrant and native savings there are fundamental differences in the saving behaviour of the respective groups. Decomposition analysis suggests that the different characteristics of migrants and natives are responsible for the observed difference in savings. The results also indicate that immigrants have a tendency to save more than natives when compared to Australian-born households of similar characteristics. These findings are consistent with the observed disparities in the wealth holdings of immigrant and native-born households in Australia.savings, immigrants, native-born, decomposition, Australia

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND SERVICES TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialisation and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country’s engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bidirectional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and unidirectional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.Causality; services trade; foreign direct investment

Industrial Groupings and Strategic FDI: Theory and Evidence

We show that industrial ownership structures, such as keiretsu groupings in Japan, may significantly impact firms' incentives to engage in FDI. While the previous literature has mainly focused on the cost of capital advantages enjoyed by keiretsu firms, this paper examines two relatively unexplored channels by which ownership structure matters for FDI incentives. The first channel involves the direct incentives generated via standard product and factor market interactions whereby keiretsu firms with cross-ownership consider more directly the congestion effects of further FDI into a market. The second channel involves the indirect incentives generated by sharing of information across keiretsu firms which reduces entry costs for subsequent FDI. Using data on Japanese FDI activity by both keiretsu and non-keiretsu manufacturing firms, we find evidence to support the importance of the second channel (information-sharing incentives) as an explanation for firm-level FDI patterns, but not for the first channel.

EVOLUTION OF DOLLAR/EURO EXCHANGE RATE BEFORE AND AFTER THE BIRTH OF EURO AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

One possible consequence of the establishment of the Euro is a challenge to the hegemony of the US dollar as the predominant international currency. No other currency has been able to rival the international role of the national currency of the US since World War II. The fact that the unipolar international monetary system can be unstable in the presence of large shocks opens a window of opportunity for the Euro to promote systemic stability. The present study pursues this conjecture by, first, exploring with cointegration and ECM techniques the interdependence between the dynamics of the Dollar/Euro exchange rate and economic fundamentals in the context of a monetary exchange rate model. Identification of the key determinants of the value of the Euro informs our analysis of the policy stance of the European Central Bank regarding the long-run global role of the Euro. Secondly, we explore whether the opportunity for a prominent systemic role of the Euro has been realized by examining the impact of the Euro on the global financial market.Euro, Exchange rate, Monetary model, Cointegration

Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia

This paper investigates the impact of the relative growth of skilled migration on the structure of Australian wages. Unlike conventional approaches, the present study uses macro data to examine the response of wages to immigration flows. We use instrumental variable (IV) techniques to deal with the potential endogeneity of immigration. Results from alternative estimation strategies support the many prevailing empirical findings. There is no robust evidence that a relative increase in skilled immigrants exerts discernible adverse consequences on the wage structure in Australia

Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia

This paper investigates the impact of the relative growth of skilled migration on the structure of Australian wages. Unlike conventional approaches, the present study uses macro data to examine the response of wages to immigration flows. We use instrumental variable (IV) techniques to deal with the potential endogeneity of immigration. Results from alternative estimation strategies support the many prevailing empirical findings. There is no robust evidence that a relative increase in skilled immigrants exerts discernible adverse consequences on the wage structure in Australia