Predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy failure among adults and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in a large prevention and treatment program in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria do not experience durable viral suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding risk factors for first-line treatment failure informs patient monitoring practices and distribution of limited resources for second-line regimens. We determined predictors of immunologic and virologic failures in a large ART delivery program in Abuja, Nigeria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, a tertiary health care facility, using data from February 2005 to December 2014 in Abuja, Nigeria. All PLWH aged ≥ 15 years who initiated ART with at least 6-month follow-up and one CD4 measurement were included. Immunologic failure was defined as a CD4 decrease to or below pre-ART level or persistent CD4  1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months of ART and enhanced adherence counselling. HIV drug resistance (Sanger sequences) was analyzed using the Stanford HIV database algorithm and scored for resistance to common nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). Univariate and multivariate log binomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of 12,452 patients followed, a total of 5928 initiated ART with at least 6 months of follow-up and one CD4 measurement. The entry point for 3924 (66.2%) was through the program's own voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center, while 1310 (22.1%) were referred from an outside clinic/program, 332 (5.6%) in-patients, and 373 (6.3%) through other entry points including prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and transferred from other programs. The mean CD4 at enrollment in care was 268 ± 23.7 cells per mm3, and the mean HIV-1 RNA was 3.3 ± 1.3.log10 copies/mL. A total of 3468 (80.5%) received nevirapine (NVP) and 2260 (19.5%) received efavirenz (EFV)-based regimens. A total of 2140 (36.1%) received tenofovir (TDF); 2662 (44.9%) zidovudine (AZT); and 1126 (19.0%) stavudine (d4T). Among those receiving TDF, 45.0% also received emtricitabine (FTC). In a multivariate model, immunologic failure was more common among PLWH with female gender as compared to male [RR (95% CI) 1.22 (1.07-1.40)] and less common among those who entered care at the program's VCT center as compared to other entry points [0.79 (0.64-0.91)], WHO stage 3/4 as compared to 1/2 [0.19 (0.16-0.22)], or CD4 200 + cells per mm3 as compared to lower [0.19 (0.16-0.22)]. Virologic failure was more common among PLWH who entered care at the program's VCT center as compared to other entry points [RR (95% CI) 1.45 (1.11-1.91) and those with CD4 < 200 cells per mm3 at entry into care as compared to higher [1.71 (1.36-2.16)]. Of 198 patient-derived samples sequenced during virologic failure, 42 (21%) were wild-type; 145 (73%) carried NNRTI drug resistance mutations; 151 (76.3%) M184I/V; 29 (14.6%) had ≥ 3 TAMs, and 37 (18.7%) had K65R, of whom all were on TDF-containing first-line regimens. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of Nigerian PLWH followed for a period of 9 years, immunologic criteria poorly predicted virologic failure. Furthermore, a subset of samples showed that patients failing ART for extended periods of time had HIV-1 strains harboring drug resistance mutations

High prevalence of integrase mutation L74I in West African HIV-1 subtypes prior to integrase inhibitor treatment.

OBJECTIVES: HIV-1 integrase inhibitors are recommended as first-line therapy by WHO, though efficacy and resistance data for non-B subtypes are limited. Two recent trials have identified the integrase L74I mutation to be associated with integrase inhibitor treatment failure in HIV-1 non-B subtypes. We sought to define the prevalence of integrase resistance mutations, including L74I, in West Africa. METHODS: We studied a Nigerian cohort of recipients prior to and during receipt of second-line PI-based therapy, who were integrase inhibitor-naive. Illumina next-generation sequencing with target enrichment was used on stored plasma samples. Drug resistance was interpreted using the Stanford Resistance Database and the IAS-USA 2019 mutation lists. RESULTS: Of 115 individuals, 59.1% harboured CRF02_AG HIV-1 and 40.9% harboured subtype G HIV-1. Four participants had major IAS-USA integrase resistance-associated mutations detected at low levels (2%-5% frequency). Two had Q148K minority variants and two had R263K (one of whom also had L74I). L74I was detected in plasma samples at over 2% frequency in 40% (46/115). Twelve (26.1%) had low-level minority variants of between 2% and 20% of the viral population sampled. The remaining 34 (73.9%) had L74I present at >20% frequency. L74I was more common among those with subtype G infection (55.3%, 26/47) than those with CRF02_AG infection (29.4%, 20/68) (P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 subtypes circulating in West Africa appear to have very low prevalence of major integrase mutations, but significant prevalence of L74I. A combination of in vitro and clinical studies is warranted to understand the potential implications.K.E.B. is supported by Wellcome Trust award number 170461. N.N. is supported by NIH R01 AI147331-01. R.K.G. is supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Fellowship in Clinical Science (WT108082AIA). This study was supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the terms of U2G GH002099-01 and PA GH17-1753 (ACHIEVE)

Revealing human mobility trends during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Nigeria via a data-driven approach

We employed emerging smartphone-based location data and produced daily human mobility measurements using Nigeria as an application site. A data-driven analytical framework was developed for rigorously producing such measures using proven location intelligence and data-mining algorithms. Our study demonstrates the framework at the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and successfully quantifies human mobility patterns and trends in response to the unprecedented public health event. Another highlight of the paper is the assessment of the effectiveness of mobility-restricting policies as key lessons learned from the pandemic. We found that travel bans and federal lockdown policies failed to restrict trip-making behaviour, but had a significant impact on distance travelled. This paper contributes a first attempt to quantify daily human travel behaviour, such as trip-making behaviour and travelling distances, and how mobility-restricting policies took effect in sub-Saharan Africa during the pandemic. This study has the potential to enable a wide spectrum of quantitative studies on human mobility and health in sub-Saharan Africa using well-controlled, publicly available large data sets. Significance: The mobility measurements in this study are new and have filled a major data gap in understanding the change in travel behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Nigeria. These measurements are derived from high-quality data samples by state-of-the-art data-driven methodologies and could be further adopted by other quantitative research related to human mobility. Additionally, this study evaluates the impact of mobility-restricting policies and the heterogeneous effects of socio-economic and socio-demographic factors by a time-dependent random effect model on human mobility. The quantitative model provides a decision-making basis for the Nigerian government to provide travel-related guidance and make decisions in future public health events. Open data set: https://github.com/villanova-transportation/Nigeria-mobility-COVID19-SAJ

Disengagement from HIV care and failure of second-line therapy in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study, 2005-2017

BACKGROUND: Understanding the correlates of disengagement from HIV care and treatment failure during second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) could inform interventions to improve clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLHIV aged >15 years who started second-line ART at a tertiary centre in Nigeria between 2005 and 2017. Participants were considered to have disengaged from care if they had not returned within a year after each clinic visit. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate factors associated with: i) viral failure (HIV-1 RNA >1,000 copies/mL), ii) immunologic failure (CD4 count decrease or 10% of bodyweight), after >6 months of second-line ART. RESULTS: Among 1031 participants, 33% (341) disengaged from care during a median follow-up of 6.9 years (IQR 3.7-8.5). Of these, 26% (89/341) subsequently re-entered care. Disengagement was associated with male gender, age <30, lower education level and low CD4 count at second-line ART initiation. Among participants with endpoint assessments available, 20% (112/565) experienced viral failure, 32% (257/809) experienced immunologic failure, and 23% (190/831) experienced weight loss. A lower risk of viral failure was associated with professional occupations compared to elementary: adjusted hazard ratio 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.04-0.70). CONCLUSION: Adverse outcomes were common during second-line ART. However, re-engagement is possible and resources should be allocated to focus on retaining PLHIV in care and providing services to trace and re-engage those who have disengaged from care