An Analysis of Fertility Change in Pakistan

In most of the developing countries, sustained population growth rates have been a dominant factor in decelerating socio-economic development. The continuing decline in mortality rates has been a major contributor to the acceleration of growth of population in these countries which started in the period following the second World War, and has not abated yet in most of the developing world. There is every likelihood that the population of these developing countries will double in the course of the next generation or so, because of the demographic momentum that is built into their age structure. The rapidly increasing population in low-income countries is not keeping pace with the necessary cultural and technological changes that may help them to raise the standard of living of their masses. Also, high rates of population growth have become a barrier to a successful attainment of the desired socioeconomic development, both quantitative and qualitative

Demand Side of Pakistan's Population Welfare Programme

Because of a continuously moderate decline in mortality specially during the first two decades of the twentieth century and more remarkably after the Second World War, the population of developing countries, including Pakistan, grew faster over time. High rates of population growth and the characteristics associated with it constituted a serious challenge to desired economic development in these countries [United Nations (1973)]. It was for these reasons that a number of developing countries in the process of development considered and adopted as part of their development efforts a population policy aimed at reducing the rate of population growth through fertility decline. In the early 1960s, few countries including Pakistan considered family planning programmes as an integral part of their development policies. By the end of 1960, family planning programmes had been initiated in many developing countries and such programmes became an integral part of the national plans [Freedman and Berelson (1976)]. By the mid-1970s, it was observed that many developing countries had succeeded in enhancing their programme activities and in achieving contraceptive use which was responsible for reducing fertility levels in those countries. However in many developing countries, including Pakistan, the family planning programmes could not achieve a breakthrough in contraceptive use and fertility decline although the programmes had been ambitiously pursued there for more than a decade [Frinkle and Crane (1975) and Berelson (1975)]

Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Use in Pakistan

Pakistan, established in 1947, is currently experiencing one of the highest growth rates of population in the world. If the 1972-81 intercensal growth rate continues, the population size would be approximately 95 million in 1985 and 150 million by the year 2000. The growing population size is already straining the scarce resources of the country and will further aggravate the level of socia-economic development; for the family planning programme which was launched to check the pace of population growth has not produced any tangible results. The major criterion for the successful implementation of a programme is that there should exist an effective demand in the society which should be matched equally with the supply. In Pakistan, the reverse has been experienced so far. The programme has been very active in maintaining an adequate supply of contraceptives without perceiving the demand situation. For the desired achievement of a programme three preconditions deduced from the demographic transition theory have been set forth by Coale [3]. The demand aspect of these includes perceived choice of an individual and favourable socio-economic conditions for declined fertility. In order to facilitate transformation of the perceived choice into behaviour, the availability of appropriate contraceptive technology is essential