Deciphering the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Position on Austerity : Incapacity, incoherence and instrumentality

Back in 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis, the London G20 forum met and declared the Washington consensus dead. What emerged in its place was a contradictory and confusing array of narratives and international policy prescriptions for post-crisis recovery that owed as much to the past as the present. Divisions within and among International Governmental Organisations (IGOs) arose about how best to address the economic challenges, but the dominant solution was ‘austerity’ which became firmly rooted in the policies and discourse of national governments and international organisations alike. While signalling a downward political reconditioning of public welfare expectations, the austerity strategy has itself lacked organisational conviction and coherence. Austerity is, thus, important for identifying the location of social policy in international post-crisis economic discourse. Since the crisis has paradoxically, bolstered economic interests at the expense of political choice, it is also necessary to study the crisis responses advocated by economic organisations as more, rather than less significant in shaping welfare futures. This article draws on evidence from a textual content analysis of International Monetary Fund (IMF) documents over the period 2004–2015 to examine discourse on austerity and social policy. The findings indicate that, while the language of ‘austerity’ and policy prescriptions vary, the IMF’s essential position has been to advocate austerity-like policies throughout the period, leaving its ideational ‘economistic’ position on the purpose of social policy fundamentally unchanged. These findings contrast with others that perceive a shift towards social justice concerns within the organisation, whereas our evidence suggests that the IMF’s position on social policy is one of ambivalence and incoherence

Terrestrial environmental change across the onset of the PETM and the associated impact on biomarker proxies:A cautionary tale

The following supplementary information includes one dataset which contains 3 tables: Biomarker distributions and proxies at Cobham, UK Bulk and compound specific isotope data at Cobham (UK) Model-derived mean annual surface temperature and precipitation estimates as a function of CO2 at Cobham (UK)

Mid-latitude continental temperatures through the early Eocene in western Europe

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are increasingly used to reconstruct mean annual air temperature (MAAT) during the early Paleogene. However, the application of this proxy in coal deposits is limited and brGDGTs have only been detected in immature coals (i.e. lignites). Using samples recovered from Schöningen, Germany (∼48°N palaeolatitude), we provide the first detailed study into the occurrence and distribution of brGDGTs through a sequence of early Eocene lignites and associated interbeds. BrGDGTs are abundant and present in every sample. In comparison to modern studies, changes in vegetation type do not appear to significantly impact brGDGT distributions; however, there are subtle differences between lignites – representing peat-forming environments – and siliciclastic nearshore marine interbed depositional environments. Using the most recent brGDGT temperature calibration (MATmr) developed for soils, we generate the first continental temperature record from central-western continental Europe through the early Eocene. Lignite-derived MAAT estimates range from 23 to 26 °C while those derived from the nearshore marine interbeds exceed 20 °C. These estimates are consistent with other mid-latitude environments and model simulations, indicating enhanced mid-latitude, early Eocene warmth. In the basal part of the section studied, warming is recorded in both the lignites (∼2 °C) and nearshore marine interbeds (∼2–3 °C). This culminates in a long-term temperature maximum, likely including the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Although this long-term warming trend is relatively well established in the marine realm, it has rarely been shown in terrestrial settings. Using a suite of model simulations we show that the magnitude of warming at Schöningen is broadly consistent with a doubling of CO2, in agreement with late Paleocene and early Eocene pCO2 estimates

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes

Longitudinal analysis of risk factors associated with severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among hemodialysis patients and healthcare personnel in outpatient hemodialysis centers

In this prospective, longitudinal study, we examined the risk factors for severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among a cohort of chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients and healthcare personnel (HCPs) over a 6-month period. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HD patients and HCPs was consistently associated with a household member having SARS-CoV-2 infection

Antibodies in healthcare personnel following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

In a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP), we measured severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleocapsid IgG antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among 79 HCP, 68 (86%) were seropositive 14-28 days after their positive PCR test, and 54 (77%) of 70 were seropositive at the 70-180-day follow-up. Many seropositive HCP (95%) experienced an antibody decline by the second visit

Seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies among healthcare personnel in the Midwestern United States, September 2020–April 2021

Abstract Objective: To determine the prevalence of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG nucleocapsid (N) antibodies among healthcare personnel (HCP) with no prior history of COVID-19 and to identify factors associated with seropositivity. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: An academic, tertiary-care hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Participants: The study included 400 HCP aged ≥18 years who potentially worked with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and had no known history of COVID-19; 309 of these HCP also completed a follow-up visit 70–160 days after enrollment. Enrollment visits took place between September and December 2020. Follow-up visits took place between December 2020 and April 2021. Methods: At each study visit, participants underwent SARS-CoV-2 IgG N-antibody testing using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay and completed a survey providing information about demographics, job characteristics, comorbidities, symptoms, and potential SARS-CoV-2 exposures. Results: Participants were predominately women (64%) and white (79%), with median age of 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 30–45). Among the 400 HCP, 18 (4.5%) were seropositive for IgG N-antibodies at enrollment. Also, 34 (11.0%) of 309 were seropositive at follow-up. HCP who reported having a household contact with COVID-19 had greater likelihood of seropositivity at both enrollment and at follow-up. Conclusions: In this cohort of HCP during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, ∼1 in 20 had serological evidence of prior, undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infection at enrollment. Having a household contact with COVID-19 was associated with seropositivity

Crises of the welfare state, resilience, and pessimism of the intellect

The crises faced by welfare states have now endured for significantly longer than the counter-period of stability, calm and cooperation between the 1940s and 1970s. Systemic crisis of welfare states tied to the contradictions of capitalism, and the exogenous crises for the welfare state that have afflicted its expansion have, however, been met by faith in its resilience evidenced in its economic functions and popularity. We question the basis for optimism by examining the ‘state of the welfare state’ in the context of the social goals envisaged in the 1940s and the extent to which these are evidenced in contemporary social policy arrangements. We present a case for more ‘pessimism of the intellect’ in assessing welfare futures to better underpin welfare state scholars’ tendency towards ‘optimism of the will’