When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect

This article reports the results of an ethnographic study of a millennial Baha\u27i sect whose leader predicted that the world would be devastated by nuclear war on April 29, 1980. Shortly before that date we began a participant-observer study of the sect, and during the following eight months we supplemented our observations by interviewing members and defectors in the four states where the group\u27s leader had a substantial following. The purpose of the investigation was to replicate the classic study of disconfirmed prophecy reported in When Prophecy Fails by Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter. They found that prophetic disconfirmation was followed by an increase in conviction and heightened efforts to recruit new believers. We report contrary findings and explore social psychological factors that might account for the difference between our findings and the results of the Festinger et al. study. We argue that reactions to prophetic failure are shaped less by psychological forces than by social circumstances existing at the time of disconfirmation

VIDEO: Policy: Investing in Energy

VIDEO: 8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Policy: Investing in Energy Moderator: David Bailey, Environmental Director, Thompson Creek Metals Company, Denver, CO Panelists: Conventional Energy: Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Director, Equity Research, Electric Utilities & IPPs Group, UBS Securities LLC, New York, NY Renewables: Jonathan Silver, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Third Way (former Executive Director of DOE\u27s Loan Programs Office) Commentators: Gwen Farnsworth, Senior Energy Policy Advisor, Western Resource Advocates, Boulder, CO Ron Lehr, Attorney and Western Representative at American Wind Energy Association, Washington, D.C

VIDEO: Policy: Investing in Energy

VIDEO: 8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Policy: Investing in Energy Moderator: David Bailey, Environmental Director, Thompson Creek Metals Company, Denver, CO Panelists: Conventional Energy: Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Director, Equity Research, Electric Utilities & IPPs Group, UBS Securities LLC, New York, NY Renewables: Jonathan Silver, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Third Way (former Executive Director of DOE\u27s Loan Programs Office) Commentators: Gwen Farnsworth, Senior Energy Policy Advisor, Western Resource Advocates, Boulder, CO Ron Lehr, Attorney and Western Representative at American Wind Energy Association, Washington, D.C

Effects of once-weekly exenatide on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: The cardiovascular effects of adding once-weekly treatment with exenatide to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes are unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes, with or without previous cardiovascular disease, to receive subcutaneous injections of extended-release exenatide at a dose of 2 mg or matching placebo once weekly. The primary composite outcome was the first occurrence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. The coprimary hypotheses were that exenatide, administered once weekly, would be noninferior to placebo with respect to safety and superior to placebo with respect to efficacy. RESULTS: In all, 14,752 patients (of whom 10,782 [73.1%] had previous cardiovascular disease) were followed for a median of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 2.2 to 4.4). A primary composite outcome event occurred in 839 of 7356 patients (11.4%; 3.7 events per 100 person-years) in the exenatide group and in 905 of 7396 patients (12.2%; 4.0 events per 100 person-years) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 1.00), with the intention-to-treat analysis indicating that exenatide, administered once weekly, was noninferior to placebo with respect to safety (P<0.001 for noninferiority) but was not superior to placebo with respect to efficacy (P=0.06 for superiority). The rates of death from cardiovascular causes, fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and the incidence of acute pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, medullary thyroid carcinoma, and serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes with or without previous cardiovascular disease, the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events did not differ significantly between patients who received exenatide and those who received placebo