Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model

Research needs for optimising wastewater-based epidemiology monitoring for public health protection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an unobtrusive method used to observe patterns in illicit drug use, poliovirus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The pandemic and need for surveillance measures have led to the rapid acceleration of WBE research and development globally. With the infrastructure available to monitor SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater in 58 countries globally, there is potential to expand targets and applications for public health protection, such as other viral pathogens, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), pharmaceutical consumption, or exposure to chemical pollutants. Some applications have been explored in academic research but are not used to inform public health decision-making. We reflect on the current knowledge of WBE for these applications and identify barriers and opportunities for expanding beyond SARS-CoV-2. This paper critically reviews the applications of WBE for public health and identifies the important research gaps for WBE to be a useful tool in public health. It considers possible uses for pathogenic viruses, AMR, and chemicals. It summarises the current evidence on the following: (1) the presence of markers in stool and urine; (2) environmental factors influencing persistence of markers in wastewater; (3) methods for sample collection and storage; (4) prospective methods for detection and quantification; (5) reducing uncertainties; and (6) further considerations for public health use

City-wide wastewater genomic surveillance through the successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has provided a critical evidence base for public health decisions throughout the pandemic. Sequencing data from clinical cases has helped to understand disease transmission and the spread of novel variants. Genomic wastewater surveillance can offer important, complementary information by providing frequency estimates of all variants circulating in a population without sampling biases. Here we show that genomic SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance can detect fine-scale differences within urban centres, specifically within the city of Liverpool, UK, during the emergence of Alpha and Delta variants between November 2020 and June 2021. Furthermore, wastewater and clinical sequencing match well in the estimated timing of new variant rises and the first detection of a new variant in a given area may occur in either clinical or wastewater samples. The study's main limitation was sample quality when infection prevalence was low in spring 2021, resulting in a lower resolution of the rise of the Delta variant compared to the rise of the Alpha variant in the previous winter. The correspondence between wastewater and clinical variant frequencies demonstrates the reliability of wastewater surveillance. However, discrepancies in the first detection of the Alpha variant between the two approaches highlight that wastewater monitoring can also capture missing information, possibly resulting from asymptomatic cases or communities less engaged with testing programmes, as found by a simultaneous surge testing effort across the city

Interatomic potentials for atomistic simulations of the Ti-Al system

Semi-empirical interatomic potentials have been developed for Al, alpha-Ti, and gamma-TiAl within the embedded atomic method (EAM) by fitting to a large database of experimental as well as ab-initio data. The ab-initio calculations were performed by the linear augmented plane wave (LAPW) method within the density functional theory to obtain the equations of state for a number of crystal structures of the Ti-Al system. Some of the calculated LAPW energies were used for fitting the potentials while others for examining their quality. The potentials correctly predict the equilibrium crystal structures of the phases and accurately reproduce their basic lattice properties. The potentials are applied to calculate the energies of point defects, surfaces, planar faults in the equilibrium structures. Unlike earlier EAM potentials for the Ti-Al system, the proposed potentials provide reasonable description of the lattice thermal expansion, demonstrating their usefulness in the molecular dynamics or Monte Carlo studies at high temperatures. The energy along the tetragonal deformation path (Bain transformation) in gamma-TiAl calculated with the EAM potential is in a fairly good agreement with LAPW calculations. Equilibrium point defect concentrations in gamma-TiAl are studied using the EAM potential. It is found that antisite defects strongly dominate over vacancies at all compositions around stoichiometry, indicating that gamm-TiAl is an antisite disorder compound in agreement with experimental data.Comment: 46 pages, 6 figures (Physical Review B, in press

The ancient evolutionary history of polyomaviruses

Author Summary: Polyomaviruses are a family of DNA-based viruses that are known to infect various terrestrial vertebrates, including humans. In this report, we describe our discovery of highly divergent polyomaviruses associated with various marine fish. Searches of public deep sequencing databases unexpectedly revealed the existence of polyomavirus-like sequences in scorpion and spider datasets. Our analysis of these new sequences suggests that polyomaviruses have slowly co-evolved with individual host animal lineages through an established mechanism known as intrahost divergence. The proposed model is similar to the mechanisms through with other DNA viruses, such as papillomaviruses, are thought to have evolved. Our analysis also suggests that distantly related polyomaviruses sometimes recombine to produce new chimeric lineages. We propose a possible taxonomic scheme that can account for these inferred ancient recombination events

City-wide wastewater genomic surveillance through the successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has provided a critical evidence base for public health decisions throughout the pandemic. Sequencing data from clinical cases has helped to understand disease transmission and the spread of novel variants. Genomic wastewater surveillance can offer important, complementary information by providing frequency estimates of all variants circulating in a population without sampling biases. Here we show that genomic SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance can detect fine-scale differences within urban centres, specifically within the city of Liverpool, UK, during the emergence of Alpha and Delta variants between November 2020 and June 2021. Furthermore, wastewater and clinical sequencing match well in the estimated timing of new variant rises and the first detection of a new variant in a given area may occur in either clinical or wastewater samples. The study's main limitation was sample quality when infection prevalence was low in spring 2021, resulting in a lower resolution of the rise of the Delta variant compared to the rise of the Alpha variant in the previous winter. The correspondence between wastewater and clinical variant frequencies demonstrates the reliability of wastewater surveillance. However, discrepancies in the first detection of the Alpha variant between the two approaches highlight that wastewater monitoring can also capture missing information, possibly resulting from asymptomatic cases or communities less engaged with testing programmes, as found by a simultaneous surge testing effort across the city

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Understanding and managing uncertainty and variability for wastewater monitoring beyond the pandemic : lessons learned from the United Kingdom national COVID-19 surveillance programmes

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented pressure on public health resources around the world. From adversity, opportunities have arisen to measure the state and dynamics of human disease at a scale not seen before. In the United Kingdom, the evidence that wastewater could be used to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 virus prompted the development of National wastewater surveillance programmes. The scale and pace of this work has proven to be unique in monitoring of virus dynamics at a national level, demonstrating the importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for public health protection. Beyond COVID-19, it can provide additional value for monitoring and informing on a range of biological and chemical markers of human health. A discussion of measurement uncertainty associated with surveillance of wastewater, focusing on lessons-learned from the UK programmes monitoring COVID-19 is presented, showing that sources of uncertainty impacting measurement quality and interpretation of data for public health decision-making, are varied and complex. While some factors remain poorly understood, we present approaches taken by the UK programmes to manage and mitigate the more tractable sources of uncertainty. This work provides a platform to integrate uncertainty management into WBE activities as part of global One Health initiatives beyond the pandemic

Acetohydroxamatoiron(III) complexes : thermodynamics of formation and temperature dependent speciation.

Studies of the thermodynamics of formation of the acetohydroxamatoiron(III) complexes were carried out in acidic media at temperatures ranging from 293 to 323 K. Through the isolation of the unique UV-visible spectra of all three complexes, it was possible to determine their formation constants and deduce enthalpies and entropies of formation as well as their molar absorptivities. The enthalpies of formation of the mono-, bis- and trisacetohydroxamatoiron(III) complexes were found to be -56.4, -17.09 and +19.74 kJ.mol(-1), respectively. Following the determination of the enthalpy and entropy of formation of these complexes, speciation diagrams were calculated for the complexes at temperatures ranging from 293 to 323 K