Financial development and income inequality in Pakistan: An application of ARDL approach

The paper examines the relationship between financial development and income inequality; and also explores if the Greenwood and Jovianvich (GJ) hypothesis applies to Pakistan. Using data from 1971 to 2005, the paper implements the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the existence of long run; and the error correction model (ECM) for the short run relationships. Stationarity properties of the series are checked by the ADF method. The findings indicate that financial development reduces income inequality while financial instability aggravates it. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find economic growth worsens income distribution and that the latter is deteriorated further by trade openness. The paper does not find support for the GJ relation. Appropriate reforms aimed at developing a well-organized financial sector in Pakistan can help reduce income inequality.Financial Development, Income Inequality

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN PAKISTAN: AN APPLICATION OF ARDL APPROACH

The paper examines the relationship between financial development and income inequality; and also explores if the Greenwood and Jovianvich (GJ) hypothesis applies to Pakistan. Using data from 1971 to 2005, the paper implements the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the existence of long run relation ships; and the error correction model (ECM) for the short run relationships. Stationarity properties of the series are tested by the ADF unit root test. The findings indicate that financial development reduces income inequality while financial instability aggravates it. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find economic growth worsens income distribution and that the latter is deteriorated further by trade openness. The paper does not find support for the GJ relation. Appropriate reforms aimed at developing a well-organized financial sector in Pakistan can help reduce income inequality.Financial Development, Income Inequality

Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach

The paper implements ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to explore whether or not stocks are good hedge against inflation in the case of a transition economy such as Pakistan, using annual data for the period 1971 – 2008. Ng-Peron (2001) unit root test is applied to determine the stationarity of the series. The results suggest that stocks act as good hedge against inflation in Pakistan both in the long and the short run. The findings should help formulate appropriate policy to encourage investment in financial markets and thereby promote economic growth.Stock Returns, Inflation, ARDL Bounds Testing, Ng-Perron Test

Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit

This study uses quarterly data from 1980.1 to 2006.4 to explore the relationship between changes in real exchange rate and the trade balance indicators of Pakistan. Applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration we examine the existence of a possible long run relationship. We find the following: (a) a long run relationship between the series exists; and b) the coefficient of elasticity is negative and statistically significant which does not support for the J-relation. Given this, the policymakers should take conservative approach in using currency devaluation to cure the fundamental disequilibrium in the balance of payments. It is likely that such policy may not produce the desired outcome—i.e., the trade balance may not improve.Real Exchange Rate Changes, Trade Balance

Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan

The paper investigates the effect of real devaluation on economic growth. In the empirical model we also include other theoretically justified variables in the case of Pakistan, such as foreign remittances, money supply, and government spending. The paper implements the ADF method to test check the stationarity of the series; and the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to establish a long run relationship. The findings affirm cointegration among the series. Real devaluation exerts contractionary effect on economic growth. The results from variance decomposition and impulse response-function show unidirectional causality from foreign remittances to economic growth; and bidirectional causality between money supply and foreign remittances. Furthermore, money supply Granger causes government spending; while devaluation Granger causes economic growth, albeit, weakly. The results should help in formulating a comprehensive trade policy including the use of competitive devaluation as a tool to correct balance of payments problems.Devaluation, Contractionary, Cointegration

Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus

The paper explores the existence and the stability of Phillips curve for North Cyprus, a small developing economy, using time series data. ADF unit root test is employed to check for stationarity. ARDL and DOLS approaches to cointegration have been used to explore the long run relation and ECM to understand short run dynamics. The predictive properties DOLS are better than those of the conventional methods. The estimates point to the existence of Phillips curve both in the long and the short run. CUSUM and CUSUMsq tests confirm a stable relation.Inflation, Unemployment, ADF, Cointegration, DOLS

An investigation into the relationship between tourism development and extreme poverty alleviation in rural Bangladesh

This thesis contributes to the understanding of the relationship between tourism development and extreme poverty alleviation in rural Bangladesh. It adopts a critical theory approach to investigate the social, economic, physical, cultural and political barriers that exclude rural poor and indigenous communities from tourism development benefits. An integrated model proposes that these communities can be included in tourism development through gaining power, legitimacy and urgency as definitive stakeholders, thereby alleviating extreme poverty in developing countries

Financial development and energy consumption nexus in Malaysia: A multivariate time series analysis

Despite a bourgeoning literature on the existence of a long-run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, the findings have failed to establish clearly the direction of causation. A growing economy needs more energy, which is exacerbated by growing population. Evidence suggests that financial development can reduce overall energy consumption by achieving energy efficiency. Economic growth and energy consumption in Malaysia have been rising in tandem over the past several years. The three public policy objectives of Malaysia are: economic progress, population growth and financial development. It is of interest to the policymakers to understand the dynamic interrelation among the stated objectives. The paper implements Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to examine the existence of a long-run relationship among the series: energy consumption, population, aggregate production, and financial development for Malaysia; and tests for Granger causality within the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results suggest that energy consumption is influenced by economic growth and financial development, both in the short and the long-run, but the population-energy relation holds only in the long run. The findings have important policy implications for balancing economic growth vis-à-vis energy consumption for Malaysia, as well as other emerging nations.Financial development; Energy consumption; ARDL; Economic growth

Devaluation and income inequality: Evidence from Pakistan

The paper examines the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Pakistan. In the empirical model we include economic growth, measured per capita; trade-openness; foreign direct investment (FDI); unemployment and inflation rates which appear well justified in the particular context of the economy of Pakistan. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration has been employed for the long run relation; and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the short run dynamics. We also test the Kuznets inverted-U relation between income inequality and economic growth. We find long run relationship among the series; and that nominal devaluation worsens income inequality. Though economic growth appears to deteriorate income distribution, the non-linear link between the variables depicts Kuznets’ (1955) type inverted-U relationship. This is reassuring for Pakistan in the long run. We also find FDI and trade-openness worsens income distribution. Inflation lowers income inequality but unemployment aggravates it in Pakistan.Devaluation, Income Inequality, EKC, ARDL

Financial Development, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from ARDL Approach for Pakistan

The paper explores the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among CO2 emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption, and population growth in Pakistan. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to the data for 1974-2009. The results confirm a long run relation among these variables. Financial development appears to help reduce CO2 emissions. The main contributors to CO2 emissions however are: economic growth, population growth and energy consumption. Our results also lend support to the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Pakistan. Based on the findings we argue that policy focus on financial development might be helpful in reducing environmental degradation.Financial Development, CO2 Emissions, Cointegration