Do institutions matter? Estimating the effect of institutions on economic performance in China

This paper estimates the effect of institutions on economic performance using cross-city data from China. We argue that China's ongoing reforms are part of a long and circuitous historical transition from antiquity to modernity, which started about 150 years ago. Learning from Western countries has been a central aspect of this historical process. The West had a laThis paper estimates the effect of institutions on economic performance using cross-city data from China. We argue that China's ongoing reforms are part of a long and circuitous historical transition from antiquity to modernity, which started about 150 years ago. Learning from Western countries has been a central aspect of this historical process. The West had a large influence on the early stage of this transition, which has persisted to current reforms. This study uses the enrollment in Christian missionary lower primary schools in China in 1919 as an instrument for present institutions. Employing a two-stage least squares method, we find that the effect of institutions on economic performance in China is positive and significant. The results are robust according to various tests including additional controls, such as geographic factors and government policy-related variables.institutions; christian; geography; policy

Modeling and Analysis of Scholar Mobility on Scientific Landscape

Scientific literature till date can be thought of as a partially revealed landscape, where scholars continue to unveil hidden knowledge by exploring novel research topics. How do scholars explore the scientific landscape , i.e., choose research topics to work on? We propose an agent-based model of topic mobility behavior where scholars migrate across research topics on the space of science following different strategies, seeking different utilities. We use this model to study whether strategies widely used in current scientific community can provide a balance between individual scientific success and the efficiency and diversity of the whole academic society. Through extensive simulations, we provide insights into the roles of different strategies, such as choosing topics according to research potential or the popularity. Our model provides a conceptual framework and a computational approach to analyze scholars' behavior and its impact on scientific production. We also discuss how such an agent-based modeling approach can be integrated with big real-world scholarly data.Comment: To appear in BigScholar, WWW 201

De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights

We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the reference basket announced by the Chinese government. We find the dollar weight has been reduced and sometimes significantly smaller than one, but there is no evidence of systematic operation of a currency basket with discernable pattern of significant weights on other currencies. During specific periods, the reduced dollar weight has not been switched to other major international currencies, but to some East Asian currencies, which is hard to explain by trade importance to or trade competition with China. We examine currency baskets of these East Asian Economies, including major international currencies and the RMB in their baskets. We find an evident tendency of Malaysia and Singapore to increase the weights of RMB in their own currency baskets, and a steadily and significantly positive weight of RMB in the basket of Thailand. These evidences suggest that, the positive weights of some East Asian currencies in RMB currency basket during specific periods largely reflect the fact that these East Asia economies have been systematically placing greater weights on RMB under the new regime of RMB exchange rate.RMB currency basket; time-varying regressions; East Asia; China; US

The Impact of Task Difficulty on Reading Comprehension Intervention with Computer Agents

The Impact of Task Difficulty on Reading Comprehension Intervention with Computer Agent

Exploration of Student Online Learning Behavior and Academic Achievement

Students’ online persistence has typically been studied at the macro-level (e.g., completion of an online course, number of academic terms completed, etc.), and was investigated as a dependent variable with predicting variables such as motivation, engagement, economical support, etc. This study examines students’ persistence in an online adaptive learning environment called ALEKS, and the association between students’ academic achievement and persistence. With archived data that included students’ online math learning log and standardized tests scores, we first explored students’ learning behavior patterns with regard to how persistent they were while learning with ALEKS. Three variables indicating three levels of persistence were created and used for cluster analysis. Hierarchical clustering analysis identified three distinctive patterns of persistence-related learning behaviors: (1) High persistence and rare topic shifting; (2) Low persistence and frequent topic shifting; and (3) Moderate persistence and moderate topic shifting. We further explored the association between persistence and academic achievement. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) indicated no significant difference in academic achievement between students with different learning patterns. This result seems to suggest that “wheel-spinning” coexists with persistence and is not beneficial to learning. This finding also suggests that ALEKS, and other intelligent learning environments, would benefit from a mechanism that determines when a student fails that takes into account wheel-spinning behaviors. This would allow for a more appropriate intervention to be provided to learners in a timely manner