The Benefits of Regional Infrastructure Investment in Asia: A Quantitative Exploration

Capitalizing on recent estimates of infrastructure financing requirements in Asia, this paper frames a scenario for infrastructure development in the region and estimates the external effects of infrastructure investment. It also assesses quantitatively the economy-wide welfare effects of developing regional infrastructure in Asia, using a global computable general equilibrium model. The results show that developing Asian economies would gain significantly from the expansion of regional infrastructure in transport and communication. With annual investment of around US$800 billion in transport, communication, and energy infrastructure during 2010-2020, developing Asia is likely to reap welfare gains of US$1,616.3 billion (in 2008 prices) in 2020, or 10% of projected aggregate gross domestic product.asian infrastructure financing; asian regional infrastructure; asian infrastructure development

Asia's Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis

Using a dynamic global general equilibrium model, the paper assesses the short- and medium-term impacts of the global financial crisis on Asian economies and the implications of post-crisis adjustment in emerging East Asia (EEA) for the world economy. The analysis suggests that EEA is unlikely to be severely damaged permanently by the global financial crisis, and a worldwide fiscal stimulus could play an important role in stabilizing the global economy in crisis. EEA’s efforts at strengthening regional demand, in conjunction with adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime, will promote more balanced regional growth and facilitate an orderly global rebalancing. However, despite the growing size of EEA in the global economy, the region’s growth rebalancing has only modest spillover effects on the rest of the world. EEA can contribute to global growth, but it alone cannot become the sole engine driving post-crisis growth in the world economy.Computable general equilibrium model; global financial crisis; Easst Asia; emerging

Labor market distortions, rural-urban inequality, and the opening of China's economy

The authors evaluate the impact of two key factor market distortions in China on rural-urban inequality and income distribution. They find that creation of a fully functioning land market has a significant impact on rural-urban inequality. This reform permits agricultural households to focus solely on the differential between farm and non-farm returns to labor in determining whether to work on or off-farm. This gives rise to an additional 10 million people moving out of agriculture by 2007 and lends a significant boost to the incomes of those remaining in agriculture. This off-farm migration also contributes to a significant rise in rural-urban migration, thereby lowering urban wages, particularly for unskilled workers. As a consequence, rural-urban inequality declines significantly. The authors find that reform of the Hukou system has the most significant impact on aggregate economic activity, as well as income distribution. Whereas the land market reform primarily benefits the agricultural households, this reform's primary beneficiaries are the rural households currently sending temporary migrants to the city. By reducing the implicit tax on temporary migrants, Hukou reform boosts their welfare and contributes to increased rural-urban migration. The combined effect of both factor market reforms is to reduce the urban-rural income ratio dramatically, from 2.59 in 2007 under the authors'baseline scenario to 2.27. When viewed as a combined policy package, along with WTO accession, rather than increasing inequality in China, the combined impact of product and factor market reforms significantly reduces rural-urban income inequality. This is an important outcome in an economy currently experiencing historic levels of rural-urban inequality.Labor Policies,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies

Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural, Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China

Capitalizing on the most recent estimates of agricultural price distortions in China and in other countries, this paper assesses the economic and poverty impact of global and domestic trade reform in China. It also examines the interplay between the trade reforms and factor market reforms aimed at improving the allocation of labor within the Chinese economy. The results suggest that trade reforms in the rest of the world, land reform and hukou reform all serve to reduce poverty, while unilateral trade reforms result in a small poverty increase. Agricultural distortions are important factors in determining the distributional and poverty effects of trade reform packages, although their impacts on aggregate trade and welfare appear to be small. A comprehensive reform package which bundles the reforms in commodity and factor markets together may benefit all broad household groups in China.Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Out-of-Time-Order Correlation at a Quantum Phase Transition

In this paper we numerically calculate the out-of-time-order correlation functions in the one-dimensional Bose-Hubbard model. Our study is motivated by the conjecture that a system with Lyapunov exponent saturating the upper bound $2\pi/\beta$ will have a holographic dual to a black hole at finite temperature. We further conjecture that for a many-body quantum system with a quantum phase transition, the Lyapunov exponent will have a peak in the quantum critical region where there exists an emergent conformal symmetry and is absent of well-defined quasi-particles. With the help of a relation between the R\'enyi entropy and the out-of-time-order correlation function, we argue that the out-of-time-order correlation function of the Bose-Hubbard model will also exhibit an exponential behavior at the scrambling time. By fitting the numerical results with an exponential function, we extract the Lyapunov exponents in the one-dimensional Bose-Hubbard model across the quantum critical regime at finite temperature. Our results on the Bose-Hubbard model support the conjecture. We also compute the butterfly velocity and propose how the echo type measurement of this correlator in the cold atom realizations of the Bose-Hubbard model without inverting the Hamiltonian.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, published versio

Out-of-Time-Order Correlation for Many-Body Localization

In this paper we first compute the out-of-time-order correlators (OTOC) for both a phenomenological model and a random-field XXZ model in the many-body localized phase. We show that the OTOC decreases in power law in a many-body localized system at the scrambling time. We also find that the OTOC can also be used to distinguish a many-body localized phase from an Anderson localized phase, while a normal correlator cannot. Furthermore, we prove an exact theorem that relates the growth of the second R\'enyi entropy in the quench dynamics to the decay of the OTOC in equilibrium. This theorem works for a generic quantum system. We discuss various implications of this theorem.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, published versio

The electronic instabilities of the Iron-based superconductors: a variational Monte-Carlo study

We report the first variational Monte Carlo (VMC) study of the iron-based superconductors. We use realistic band structures, and the ordering instabilities/variational ansatzs are suggested by previous functional renormalization group calculations. We examine antiferromagnetism, superconducting pairing, normal state fermi surface distortion, and orbital order in the antiferromagnetic state.Comment: Journal reference: Phys. Rev. B 83, 134502 (2011

Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long Term Forecasts for Regional Integration

Economic emergence of the People?s Republic of China (PRC) and India has fundamentally altered the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy. Using the new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, ASEAN economies have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.globalization, integration, Asia

Doha Development Agenda: Asian Challenges and Prospects after the Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong, China.

The Doha Development Agenda is the first "round" of multilateral trade negotiations under the World Trade Organization and is also the first time that multilateral trade talks have explicitly sought to focus on the interests of developing countries. Developing Asia therefore has much at stake in the talks and has a strong interest in a positive and ambitious outcome. The key areas of market access negotiations are in industrial products, agriculture, and services. Each area raises distinct issues and nuances for various groups of developed and developing countries. In addition, the Doha Agenda includes the rules governing contingent forms of protection and regional trade agreements. Finally, "aid for trade" and trade facilitation are part of the agenda. Asia has a vital interest in multilateral liberalization prospering in the Doha talks.