Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile

The purpose of this paper is to test empirically whether the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) has a monetary policy reaction that changes depending on the actual state of the economy. For that, we estimate a threshold model for the CBC’s policy rule that allows the existence of two policy regimes according to whether the output gap, the inflation deviation or the GDP growth is above or below a threshold value. Also, we assess the possible effects of estimated monetary policy rules in the achievement of the inflation target by simulating a standard New Keynesian Model with endogenous switching parameters. Estimations show that the monetary authority responds strongly to inflation deviations but weakly to the output gap when the gap is larger than a specific threshold value. Furthermore, there is statistical evidence that the CBC reacts faster moving the interest rate under expansion periods. These results are robust when assuming an unknown threshold value and to real-time estimation. Simulations revealthat the estimated monetary policy rule may induce an asymmetric behavior in the inflation rate and a small negative inflation bias.

Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest

In this paper we use a set of methods to estimate the neutral interest rate for Chile (NRIR). We group the methods into three categories: methods derived from pure economic theory, the NRIR implicit in the price of financial assets, and the rate estimated from a statistical model using macroeconomic data. We learnt that the neutral interest rate is not a time invariant variable. It is closely related to the potential growth of the economy (but it is not equal to the growth rate of the trended output). The application of all methods yields very similar results. The NRIR would be in a range between 2% and 3.6%, with a median equal to 2.8% with data up to the fourth quarter of 2006

Water quality for supplementary irrigation in the Quequén Salado river basin (Argentina)

This paper focuses on the study of the water quality in the courses which compose the Quequén Salado river basin, Argentina, in order to determine their suitability for supplementary irrigation. Water samples were analysed to assess their salinity and sodium hazard. The creeks from the hill sector have Very Good Quality Waters and the water of the middle basin courses can be used to irrigate the main crops in the area. The salinity values obtained in the main river are tolerated only by barley hay and some pastures.El presente trabajo está centrado en el estudio de la calidad de agua de los cursos que integran la cuenca hidrográfica del río Quequén Salado, Argentina, con el objeto de evaluar su empleo para riego suplementario. Se realizaron determinaciones de salinidad y sodicidad en muestras de agua tomadas en distintos tramos de los ríos y arroyos de la cuenca, así como en las lagunas más importantes, durante la primavera y el verano de los años 1998, 1999 y 2000. El estudio se cumplimentó con la caracterización química de los principales cursos. En base a los valores de conductividad eléctrica y RAS obtenidos, se cartografiaron aquellos sectores de la cuenca con calidades de riego similares. De acuerdo a estos resultados se establecieron los tipos de cultivo que podrían regarse teniendo en cuenta el grado de tolerancia de cada uno.Fil: Marini, Mario Fabián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; ArgentinaFil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentin