The European way out of recession

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.Threshold autoregression, bounce-back effects, asymmetric business cycles.

Two-Centered Magical Charge Orbits

We determine the two-centered generic charge orbits of magical N = 2 and maximal N = 8 supergravity theories in four dimensions. These orbits are classified by seven U-duality invariant polynomials, which group together into four invariants under the horizontal symmetry group SL(2,R). These latter are expected to disentangle different physical properties of the two-centered black-hole system. The invariant with the lowest degree in charges is the symplectic product (Q1,Q2), known to control the mutual non-locality of the two centers.Comment: 1+17 pages, 1 Table; v2: Eq. (3.23) corrected; v3: various refinements in text and formulae, caption of Table 1 expanded, Footnote and Refs. added. To appear on JHE

Thrombophilia and varicella zoster in children

From 2005 to 2011, 25 children of both sexes (13 boys and 12 girls, mean age 7.8 ± 2.5 years, 5-12.4 years) with acute varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection were selected. Five patients showed venous thromboembolism characterized by deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Comparison of activated partial thromboplastin time, antithrombin III, D-dimer, lupus anticoagulant, free S protein (PS), C protein, and antiphospholipid and PS antibodies was performed on children with acute VZV and DVT (group I), acute uncomplicated VZV (group II), and 30 healthy controls of both sexes (15 boys and 15 girls, mean age 7.5 ± 2.6 years, group III). Genetic thrombophilic mutations (Factor V Leiden, MTHFR C677T, and Prothrombin G20210A) were evaluated. Coagulation disorders and PS antibody were found in children with acute VZV (groups I and II). Significant differences were shown among the three groups (P0.05). Acute VZV infection could be associated with coagulation disorders and production of inhibitory PS antibodies in many uncomplicated cases

On Black Attractors in 8D and Heterotic/Type IIA Duality

Motivated by the study of black attractors in 8D supergravity with 16 supersymmetries, we use the field theory approach and 8D supersymmetry with non trivial central charges to shed light on the exact duality between heterotic string on T^2 and type IIA on real connected and compact surfaces {\Sigma}2. We investigate the two constraints that should be obeyed by {\Sigma}2 and give their solutions in terms of intersecting 2-cycles as well their classification using Dynkin diagrams of affine Kac-Moody algebras. It is shown as well that the moduli space of these dual theories is given by SO(1,1)x((SO(2,r+2))/(SO(2)xSO(r+2))) where r stands for the rank of the gauge symmetry G_{r} of the 10D heterotic string on T^2. The remarkable cases r=-2,-1,0 as well as other features are also investigated.Comment: LaTex, 18 pages, 2 figures, To appear in JHE

Effect on haematological and anthropometric parameters of iron supplementation in the first 2 years of life. Risks and benefits

Effects of iron supplementation (IS) on haematological and anthropometric parameters in a cohort of 121 healthy children, followed from 6 to 24 months of life, in the Paediatric Department, Second University of Naples, were evaluated. Children were randomly segregated in four groups: (1) exclusively breast feeding (BF) weaned with non-iron fortified (NIF) foods, (2) BF and iron fortified formulas (IFF) and foods, (3) exclusively IFF and foods, (4) BF and oral iron supplementation (OIS). Haematological parameters (Hb, MCV, Serum ferritin and transferrin saturation) in addition to anthropometric measurements (length and weight) were obtained. Results from the study at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months showed significantly lower values of haematological parameters in BF infants than other groups and in IFF infants than in those with OIS. In contrast children with OIS showed significant lower length. It appears that IS may be of limited or no benefit for growth in non-iron deficient children

On Supergroups with Odd Clifford Parameters and Supersymmetry with Modified Leibniz Rule

We investigate supergroups with Grassmann parameters replaced by odd Clifford parameters. The connection with non-anticommutative supersymmetry is discussed. A Berezin-like calculus for odd Clifford variables is introduced. Fermionic covariant derivatives for supergroups with odd Clifford variables are derived. Applications to supersymmetric quantum mechanics are made. Deformations of the original supersymmetric theories are encountered when the fermionic covariant derivatives do not obey the graded Leibniz property. The simplest non-trivial example is given by the N=2 SQM with a real $(1,2,1)$ multiplet and a cubic potential. The action is real. Depending on the overall sign ("Euclidean" or "Lorentzian") of the deformation, a Bender-Boettcher pseudo-hermitian hamiltonian is encountered when solving the equation of motion of the auxiliary field. A possible connection of our framework with the Drinfeld twist deformation of supersymmetry is pointed out.Comment: Final version to be published in Int. J. Mod. Phys. A; 20 page

Matrix Norms, BPS Bounds and Marginal Stability in N=8 Supergravity

We study the conditions of marginal stability for two-center extremal black holes in N-extended supergravity in four dimensions, with particular emphasis on the N=8 case. This is achieved by exploiting triangle inequalities satisfied by matrix norms. Using different norms and relative bounds among them, we establish the existence of marginal stability and split attractor flows both for BPS and some non-BPS solutions. Our results are in agreement with previous analysis based on explicit construction of multi-center solutions.Comment: 1+15 pages; v2: some new formulas added and misprints corrected; v3: typos fixed, various refinements, Sec. 2.4 rewritten; to appear on JHE

Jordan Frame Supergravity and Inflation in NMSSM

We present a complete explicit N=1, d=4 supergravity action in an arbitrary Jordan frame with non-minimal scalar-curvature coupling of the form $\Phi(z, \bar z)\, R$. The action is derived by suitably gauge-fixing the superconformal action. The theory has a modified Kaehler geometry, and it exhibits a significant dependence on the frame function $\Phi (z, \bar z)$ and its derivatives over scalars, in the bosonic as well as in the fermionic part of the action. Under certain simple conditions, the scalar kinetic terms in the Jordan frame have a canonical form. We consider an embedding of the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM) gauge theory into supergravity, clarifying the Higgs inflation model recently proposed by Einhorn and Jones. We find that the conditions for canonical kinetic terms are satisfied for the NMSSM scalars in the Jordan frame, which leads to a simple action. However, we find that the gauge singlet field experiences a strong tachyonic instability during inflation in this model. Thus, a modification of the model is required to support the Higgs-type inflation.Comment: 1+36 pages, 4 figures; v2: discussion updated in Subsec. 4.1, Refs. added, typos fixed. To appear in PR

On the Stability of Non-Supersymmetric Quantum Attractors in String Theory

We study four dimensional non-supersymmetric attractors in type IIA string theory in the presence of sub-leading corrections to the prepotential. For a given Calabi-Yau manifold, the D0-D4 system admits an attractor point in the moduli space which is uniquely specified by the black hole charges. The perturbative corrections to the prepotential do not change the number of massless directions in the black hole effective potential. We further study non-supersymmetric D0-D6 black holes in the presence of sub-leading corrections. In this case the space of attractor points define a hypersurface in the moduli space.Comment: References Added, Typos Corrected, Appendix A.2 Reordere