Measuring the Taylor rule's performance

Using a recently developed econometric technique to determine how the original Taylor rule and subsequent variations perform using different measures of inflation, output and unemployment. We found that the rule remains relevant today, despite the changes wrought by globalization, financial market innovations and technological advances.

Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?

This paper looks at the term-structure literature to identify early signs predicting recessionary patterns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) recession dates, we define the probability of recession as a function of the traditional yield spread, plus a forward-looking measure of growth expectations, namely the output gap growth spread. For other countries, we extend the model and make it additionally dependent on the probability of recession in the U.S. Our results indicate that most of the a-posteriori official recession dates could have been forecast as early as April 2009, when the first green shoots of recovery appeared in the U.S. data. Overall, the term-structure versions we apply allow us to signal recessions earlier and more accurately than traditional term-structure models and most professional forecasters.Forecasting ; Macroeconomics - Econometric models ; International finance

Globalization and the changing nature of the U.S. economy's influence in the world

Global economic integration may have made other countries more dependent on each other and weakened their initial responses to U.S. economic fluctuations.Globalization ; Economic conditions - United States ; International trade ; Financial crises

The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications

We look at how well several alternative Taylor rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions in real time, using the newly developed Giacomini and Rossi (2007) test for non-nested model selection in the presence of (possible) parameter instability. Further, we isolate those Taylor rule features that are most important for achieving relatively strong real-time performance. A second-order partial adjustment version of the Koenig (2004a) model performs consistently better than alternative specifications. Key features of this rule are the partial adjustment of the federal funds rate toward an equilibrium rate that depends on the unemployment rate and forward-looking inflation measures.Taylor's rule ; Real-time data ; Monetary policy - United States ; Forecasting

Gasoline content regulation as a trade barrier: do boutique fuels discourage fuel imports?

This paper examines the impact of Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) environmental regulations on U.S. motor gasoline import patterns. Following the damage to U.S. petroleum refining infrastructure from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the federal government provided temporary relief for several weeks from so-called boutique fuel specifications designed to improve air quality in certain regions of the country. These temporary waivers increased marketers’ ability to sell gasoline originally destined for specific regional markets into a greater number of markets. We hypothesize that these same waivers also encouraged gasoline imports more than increased prices would have alone. We test our hypothesis using two analyses. The first consists of a simple transfer function analysis designed to separate price effects (and thus effects of refinery closures) from the effects of regulatory relief. The second analysis consists of a natural experiment comparing the primary recipient of regulatory relief—the Gulf Coast gasoline market— to the rest of the United States. Both analyses suggest that the CAAA-related specifications prevent a substantial amount of gasoline imports from entering the United States under normal circumstances.

Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptors in the Modulation of the Immune/Inflammatory Response in Atherosclerosis

Inflammation has been recognized as an important hallmark of atherosclerosis. The pharmacological activation of PPAR-γ by the thiazolidinediones in diabetes, and of PPAR-α by the fibrates in hyperlipidemia has been shown to help to reduce inflammatory markers in preclinical and clinical studies. PPARs are known to modulate immune pathways through at least three different mechanisms: by direct binding to PPRE of anti-inflammatory cytokines genes; by transrepression of transcription factors like NF-κB and AP-1; or by corepression. The regulation of the inflammatory pathways by PPARs can be achieved on each one of the cells involved in the atherosclerotic process, that is, monocytes, macrophages, T cells, endothelial cells, and smooth muscle cells. Moreover, as each of these cellular components is interconnected with each other, PPAR activation in one cell type could affect the other ones. As activation of PPARs has clear ant-inflammatory benefits, PPARs ligands should be considered as a new therapeutical approach to ameliorate the exacerbated immune response in atherosclerotic diseases

Recent Technological Developments on LGAD and iLGAD Detectors for Tracking and Timing Applications

This paper reports the last technological development on the Low Gain Avalanche Detector (LGAD) and introduces a new architecture of these detectors called inverse-LGAD (iLGAD). Both approaches are based on the standard Avalanche Photo Diodes (APD) concept, commonly used in optical and X-ray detection applications, including an internal multiplication of the charge generated by radiation. The multiplication is inherent to the basic n++-p+-p structure, where the doping profile of the p+ layer is optimized to achieve high field and high impact ionization at the junction. The LGAD structures are optimized for applications such as tracking or timing detectors for high energy physics experiments or medical applications where time resolution lower than 30 ps is required. Detailed TCAD device simulations together with the electrical and charge collection measurements are presented through this work.Comment: Keywords: silicon detectors, avalanche multiplication, timing detectors, tracking detectors. 8 pages. 8 Figure