Application of the lumped age-class technique to studying the dynamics of malaria-mosquito-human interactions

A series of models of malaria-mosquito-human interactions using the Lumped Age-Class technique of Gurney & Nisbet are developed. The models explicitly include sub-adult mosquito dynamics and assume that population regulation occurs at the larval stage. A challenge for modelling mosquito dynamics in continuous time is that the insect has discrete life-history stages (egg, larva, pupa & adult), the sub-adult stages of relatively fixed duration, which are subject to very different demographic rates. The Lumped Age-Class technique provides a natural way to treat this type of population structure. The resulting model, phrased as a system of delay-differential equations, is only slightly harder to analyse than traditional ordinary differential equations and much easier than the alternative partial differential equation approach. The Lumped Age-Class technique also allows the natural treatment of the relatively fixed time delay between the mosquito ingesting Plasmodium and it becoming infective. Three models are developed to illustrate the application of this approach: one including just the mosquito dynamics, the second including Plasmodium but no human dynamics, and the third including the interaction of the malaria pathogen and the human population (though only in a simple classical Ross-Macdonald manner). A range of epidemiological quantities used in studying malaria such as the vectorial capacity, the entomological inoculation rate and the basic reproductive number (R0) are derived, and examples given of the analysis and simulation of model dynamics. Assumptions and extensions are discussed. It is suggested that this modelling framework may be a natural and useful tool for exploring a variety of issues in malaria-vector epidemiology, especially in circumstances where a dynamic representation of mosquito recruitment is required

Revolutionizing Clinical Microbiology Laboratory Organization in Hospitals with In Situ Point-of-Care

BACKGROUND: Clinical microbiology may direct decisions regarding hospitalization, isolation and anti-infective therapy, but it is not effective at the time of early care. Point-of-care (POC) tests have been developed for this purpose. METHODS AND FINDINGS: One pilot POC-lab was located close to the core laboratory and emergency ward to test the proof of concept. A second POC-lab was located inside the emergency ward of a distant hospital without a microbiology laboratory. Twenty-three molecular and immuno-detection tests, which were technically undemanding, were progressively implemented, with results obtained in less than four hours. From 2008 to 2010, 51,179 tests yielded 6,244 diagnoses. The second POC-lab detected contagious pathogens in 982 patients who benefited from targeted isolation measures, including those undertaken during the influenza outbreak. POC tests prevented unnecessary treatment of patients with non-streptococcal tonsillitis (n = 1,844) and pregnant women negative for Streptococcus agalactiae carriage (n = 763). The cerebrospinal fluid culture remained sterile in 50% of the 49 patients with bacterial meningitis, therefore antibiotic treatment was guided by the molecular tests performed in the POC-labs. With regard to enterovirus meningitis, the mean length-of-stay of infected patients over 15 years old significantly decreased from 2008 to 2010 compared with 2005 when the POC was not in place (1.43±1.09 versus 2.91±2.31 days; p = 0.0009). Altogether, patients who received POC tests were immediately discharged nearly thrice as often as patients who underwent a conventional diagnostic procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The on-site POC-lab met physicians' needs and influenced the management of 8% of the patients that presented to emergency wards. This strategy might represent a major evolution of decision-making regarding the management of infectious diseases and patient care

Should patients with hip joint prosthesis receive antibiotic prophylaxis before dental treatment?

The safety committee of the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons (AAOS) recommended in 2009 that clinicians should consider antibiotic prophylaxis for all patients with total joint replacement before any invasive procedure that may cause bacteremia. This has aroused confusion and anger among dentists asking for the evidence. The present review deals with different aspects of the rationale for this recommendation giving attention to views both in favor of and against it

Perioperative events influence cancer recurrence risk after surgery.

Surgery is a mainstay treatment for patients with solid tumours. However, despite surgical resection with a curative intent and numerous advances in the effectiveness of (neo)adjuvant therapies, metastatic disease remains common and carries a high risk of mortality. The biological perturbations that accompany the surgical stress response and the pharmacological effects of anaesthetic drugs, paradoxically, might also promote disease recurrence or the progression of metastatic disease. When cancer cells persist after surgery, either locally or at undiagnosed distant sites, neuroendocrine, immune, and metabolic pathways activated in response to surgery and/or anaesthesia might promote their survival and proliferation. A consequence of this effect is that minimal residual disease might then escape equilibrium and progress to metastatic disease. Herein, we discuss the most promising proposals for the refinement of perioperative care that might address these challenges. We outline the rationale and early evidence for the adaptation of anaesthetic techniques and the strategic use of anti-adrenergic, anti-inflammatory, and/or antithrombotic therapies. Many of these strategies are currently under evaluation in large-cohort trials and hold promise as affordable, readily available interventions that will improve the postoperative recurrence-free survival of patients with cancer

Evaluation of coseasonality of influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease: results from prospective surveillance

BACKGROUND: The wintertime co-occurrence of peaks in influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is well documented, but how and whether wintertime peaks caused by these two pathogens are causally related is still uncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between influenza infection and IPD in Ontario, Canada, using several complementary methodological tools. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated a total number of 38,501 positive influenza tests in Central Ontario and 6,191 episodes of IPD in the Toronto/Peel area, Ontario, Canada, between 1 January 1995 and 3 October 2009, reported through population-based surveillance. We assessed the relationship between the seasonal wave forms for influenza and IPD using fast Fourier transforms in order to examine the relationship between these two pathogens over yearly timescales. We also used three complementary statistical methods (time-series methods, negative binomial regression, and case-crossover methods) to evaluate the short-term effect of influenza dynamics on pneumococcal risk. Annual periodicity with wintertime peaks could be demonstrated for IPD, whereas periodicity for influenza was less regular. As for long-term effects, phase and amplitude terms of pneumococcal and influenza seasonal sine waves were not correlated and meta-analysis confirmed significant heterogeneity of influenza, but not pneumococcal phase terms. In contrast, influenza was shown to Granger-cause pneumococcal disease. A short-term association between IPD and influenza could be demonstrated for 1-week lags in both case-crossover (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.10 [1.02-1.18]) and negative binomial regression analysis (incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.09 [1.05-1.14]). CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the hypothesis that influenza influences bacterial disease incidence by enhancing short-term risk of invasion in colonized individuals. The absence of correlation between seasonal waveforms, on the other hand, suggests that bacterial disease transmission is affected to a lesser extent. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary