514 research outputs found

    Extreme dimensionality reduction with quantum modeling

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    Effective and efficient forecasting relies on identification of the relevant information contained in past observations—the predictive features—and isolating it from the rest. When the future of a process bears a strong dependence on its behavior far into the past, there are many such features to store, necessitating complex models with extensive memories. Here, we highlight a family of stochastic processes whose minimal classical models must devote unboundedly many bits to tracking the past. For this family, we identify quantum models of equal accuracy that can store all relevant information within a single two-dimensional quantum system (qubit). This represents the ultimate limit of quantum compression and highlights an immense practical advantage of quantum technologies for the forecasting and simulation of complex systems

    The spatial context of clinic-reported sexually transmitted infection in Hong Kong

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence and prevalence of sexually transmitted infection (STI) in China has been on the rise in the past decade. Delineation of epidemiologic pattern is often hampered by its uneven distribution. Spatial distribution is often a neglected aspect of STI research, the description of which may enhance epidemiologic surveillance and inform service development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over a one month-period, all first time attendees of 6 public STI clinics in Hong Kong were interviewed before clinical consultation using a standard questionnaire to assess their demographic, clinical and behavioural characteristics. A GIS (geographic information system)-based approach was adopted with mapping performed. The cases attending the clinics in different locations were profiled. A comparison was made between neighbourhood cases (patients living near a clinic) and distant cases (those farther off), by calculating the odds ratio for demographic, behavioural and geographic characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 1142 STI patients evaluated, the residence locations of 1029 (90.1%) could be geocoded, of which 95.6% were ethnic Chinese and 63.4% male. Geographically only about a quarter lived in the same district as the clinic. STI patients aged 55 or above were more likely to be living in the vicinity of the clinic, located in the same or adjacent tertiary planning unit (a small geographic unit below district level). A majority of patients came from locations a few kilometers from the clinic, the distance of which varies between clinics. Overall, more syphilis cases were reported in patients residing in the same or adjacent tertiary planning unit, while distant cases tended to give a higher risk of inconsistent condom use. There were otherwise no significant clinical and epidemiologic differences between neighbourhood and distant STI cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There was no specific relationship between STI and the residence location of patients as regards their clinical and epidemiologic characteristics in the territory of Hong Kong. Older STI patients were however more inclined to attend the nearby STI clinics. Most patients have travelled a variable distance to access the STI service. The relationship between STI clinic cases and distance could be a complex issue intertwined between psychosocial characteristics and STI service coverage.</p

    Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome

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    Nature uses 64 codons to encode the synthesis of proteins from the genome, and chooses 1 sense codon—out of up to 6 synonyms—to encode each amino acid. Synonymous codon choice has diverse and important roles, and many synonymous substitutions are detrimental. Here we demonstrate that the number of codons used to encode the canonical amino acids can be reduced, through the genome-wide substitution of target codons by defined synonyms. We create a variant of Escherichia coli with a four-megabase synthetic genome through a high-fidelity convergent total synthesis. Our synthetic genome implements a defined recoding and refactoring scheme—with simple corrections at just seven positions—to replace every known occurrence of two sense codons and a stop codon in the genome. Thus, we recode 18,214 codons to create an organism with a 61-codon genome; this organism uses 59 codons to encode the 20 amino acids, and enables the deletion of a previously essential transfer RNA

    The cost effectiveness of REACH-HF and home-based cardiac rehabilitation compared with the usual medical care for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction:a decision model-based analysis

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    This is the final version. Available from Sage Publications via the DOI in this record.Background The REACH-HF (Rehabilitation EnAblement in CHronic Heart Failure) trial found that the REACH-HF home-based cardiac rehabilitation intervention resulted in a clinically meaningful improvement in disease-specific health-related quality of life in patients with reduced ejection fraction heart failure (HFrEF). The aims of this study were to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of the addition of REACH-HF intervention or home-based cardiac rehabilitation to usual care compared with usual care alone in patients with HFrEF. Design and methods A Markov model was developed using a patient lifetime horizon and integrating evidence from the REACH-HF trial, a systematic review/meta-analysis of randomised trials, estimates of mortality and hospital admission and UK costs at 2015/2016 prices. Taking a UK National Health and Personal Social Services perspective we report the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, assessing uncertainty using probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. Results In base case analysis, the REACH-HF intervention was associated with per patient mean QALY gain of 0.23 and an increased mean cost of £400 compared with usual care, resulting in a cost per QALY gained of £1720. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 78% probability that REACH-HF is cost effective versus usual care at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Results were similar for home-based cardiac rehabilitation versus usual care. Sensitivity analyses indicate the findings to be robust to changes in model assumptions and parameters. Conclusions Our cost-utility analyses indicate that the addition of the REACH-HF intervention and home-based cardiac rehabilitation programmes are likely to be cost-effective treatment options versus usual care alone in patients with HFrEF.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

    Feasibility study of portable technology for weight loss and HbA1c control in type 2 diabetes

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    Background The study investigated the feasibility of conducting a future Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) of a mobile health (mHealth) intervention for weight loss and HbA1c reduction in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Methods The intervention was a small wearable mHealth device used over 12 weeks by overweight people with T2DM with the intent to lose weight and reduce their HbA1c level. A 4 week maintenance period using the device followed. The device records physical activity level and information about food consumption, and provides motivational feedback based on energy balance. Twenty-seven participants were randomised to receive no intervention; intervention alone; or intervention plus weekly motivational support. All participants received advice on diet and exercise at the start of the study. Weight and HbA1c levels were recorded at baseline and weeks 6, 12, and 16. Qualitative interviews were conducted with participants who received the intervention to explore their experiences of using the device and involvement in the study including the training received. Results Overall the device was perceived to be well-liked, acceptable, motivational and easy to use by participants. Some logistical changes were required during the feasibility study, including shortening of the study duration and relaxation of participant inclusion criteria. Descriptive statistics of weight and HbA1c data showed promising trends of weight loss and HbA1c reduction in both intervention groups, although this should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions A number of methodological recommendations for a future RCT emerged from the current feasibility study. The mHealth device was acceptable and promising for helping individuals with T2DM to reduce their HbA1c and lose weight. Devices with similar features should be tested further in larger studies which follow these methodological recommendations

    Tumor necrosis factor alpha drugs in rheumatoid arthritis: systematic review and metaanalysis of efficacy and safety

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    Es reproducción del documento publicado en http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2474-9-52Background: To analyse available evidence on the efficacy and safety of anti-TNF alpha drugs (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab) for treating rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: We searched systematically for randomised controlled clinical trials on treatment of RA with anti-TNF alpha drugs, followed by a systematic review with metaanalysis. Trials were searched from MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases. The American College of Rheumatology (ACR) efficacy response criteria were used. Safety parameters provided by the trials were also assessed. Positive and undesired effects were estimated using combined relative risks (RR), number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed to harm (NNH). Heterogeneity was evaluated by Cochrane's Q and I-2 statistics. Results: Thirteen trials (7087 patients) met the inclusion criteria. The combined RR to achieve a therapeutic response to treatment with recommended doses of any anti-TNF alpha drug was 1.81 (95% CI 1.43 - 2.29) with a NNT of 5 (5 - 6) for ACR20. NNT for ACR50 [5 (5 - 6)] and ACR70 [7 (7 - 9)] were similar. Overall therapeutic effects were also similar regardless of the specific anti-TNF alpha drug used and when higher than recommended doses were administered. However, lower than recommended doses elicited low ACR70 responses (NNT 15). Comparison of anti-TNF alpha drugs plus methotrexate (MTX) with MTX alone in patients with insufficient prior responses to MTX showed NNT values of 3 for ACR20, 4 for ACR50 and 8 for ACR70. Comparison of anti-TNF alpha drugs with placebo showed a similar pattern. Comparisons of anti-TNF alpha drugs plus MTX with MTX alone in patients with no previous resistance to MTX showed somewhat lower effects. Etanercept and adalimumab administered as monotherapy showed effects similar to those of MTX. Side effects were more common among patients receiving anti-TNF alpha drugs than controls (overall combined NNH 27). Patients receiving infliximab were more likely to drop out because of side effects (NNH 24) and to suffer severe side effects (NNH 31), infections (NNH 10) and infusion reactions (NNH 9). Patients receiving adalimumab were also more likely to drop out because of side effects (NNH 47) and to suffer injection site reactions (NNH 22). Patients receiving etanercept were less likely to drop out because of side effects (NNH for control versus etanercept 26) but more likely to experience injection site reactions (NNH 5). Conclusion: Anti-TNF alpha drugs are effective in RA patients, with apparently similar results irrespective of the drug administered. Doses other than those recommended are also beneficial. The main factor influencing therapeutic efficacy is the prior response to DMARD treatment. The effect of treatment with etanercept or adalimumab does not differ from that obtained with MTX. The published safety profile for etanercept is superior but the fact that no patients are treated with higher than recommended doses requires explanation
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