Euro-Mediterranean Economic Integration: An Empirical Investigation of Trade Flows.

Greater trade and financial integration are implicitly identified by the Barcelona Conference as the mechanism to promote “peace and shared prosperity†and “sustainable and balanced economic and social development†in the Euro-Mediterranean Area. Indeed, the Conference has identified the establishment of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (FTA) as the essential element to build the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. The main objective of this paper is to verify the extent of economic integration between the countries that will form the FTA and assess the impact of European integration and enlargement on the process of Mediterranean economic integration. In particular, the use of a gravity model specification seems particularly well suited in order to compare actual and potential integration between the Euro-Mediterranean countries and estimate the integrating/disintegrating effect of EU integration and enlargement before the establishment of the Euro-Mediterranean FTA.

A spatial multilevel analysis of Italian SMEs Productivity

In this paper, we adapt multilevel analysis methods to investigate the spatial variability of SMEs productivity across the Italian territory, and account for differences in the socio-economic context. Our results suggest that to properly capture the variability of the data, it is important to allow for both spatial mean and slope effects. Social decay has the expected negative impact. However, while this effect is larger on firms with smaller capital intensity, firms with higher capital intensity seem to be less affected by geography. Greater territorial heterogeneity emerges among those firms with lower capital to labour ratios.Firm heterogeneity, Spatial variability, Socio-economic Context, Multilevel Analysis

Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Using a gravity framework in an intertemporal context, we provide strong support for the hypothesis and we reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle. Interestingly, this requires a fundamental revision of Obstfeld and Rogoff’s argument. A further novelty of our work is in tying bilateral trade behavior to desired aggregate trade balances and desired intertemporal trade.Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, trade costs, gravity model, home bias puzzle, current account, trade balance

Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour

In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.Real Exchange Rates, Sectoral Prices, Panel Data Methods

TRADE COSTS, TRADE BALANCES AND CURRENT ACCOUNTS: AN APPLICATION OF GRAVITY TO MULTILATERAL TRADE

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econo-metric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; trade costs; gravity model; home bias puzzle; current account; trade balance

Estimating Verdoorn law for Italian firms and regions

In empirical regional economics, returns to scale are typically estimated at the regional level in search for evidence on alternative theories of growth and agglomeration. However, returns to scale may also have a firm-level dimension. In this paper, we exploit micro level data and estimate the dynamic Verdoorn law in a multilevel-setting, where returns to scale are obtained simultaneously for the micro and the regional level. Using Italian firm-level data and the NUTS-3 level of aggregation, we estimate the classic and augmented versions of Verdoorn law for all sectors and separately for manufacturing. Our results show that increasing returns to scale co-exist at both levels, with some degree of regional heterogeneity across the Italian peninsula.Returns to scale, Verdoorn Law, Multilevel models, Italian firms

Convergence in TFP among Italian Regions - Panel Unit Roots with Heterogeneity and Cross Sectional Dependence

This paper performs a number of tests to estimate convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) among Italian regions during the period 1970-2001. We generate the regional TFP series using growth accounting methodologies, and then apply a range of panel unit root tests to analyse the process of convergence. We extend the existing literature by incorporating three main improvements. Firstly, we control for the heterogeneity arising from the different economic structure of each region. Secondly, we account for the cross-sectional dependence due to common shocks or spillovers among different regions at the same time. Finally, we look for clubs of convergence using tests of poolability both on economic and statistical grounds.

Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.Commodity Prices, Panel Estimation, Factor Models

Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.Short and Long Interest Rates, Financial Globalization, Panel Data, Factor Models

The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle

In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.Savings, Investment, Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, Panel Nonstationarity, Principal Components.