Coupled Information Diffusion–Pest Dynamics Models Predict Delayed Benefits of Farmer Cooperation in Pest Management Programs

Worldwide, the theory and practice of agricultural extension system have been dominated for almost half a century by Rogers' “diffusion of innovation theory”. In particular, the success of integrated pest management (IPM) extension programs depends on the effectiveness of IPM information diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers, an important assumption which underpins funding from development organizations. Here we developed an innovative approach through an agent-based model (ABM) combining social (diffusion theory) and biological (pest population dynamics) models to study the role of cooperation among small-scale farmers to share IPM information for controlling an invasive pest. The model was implemented with field data, including learning processes and control efficiency, from large scale surveys in the Ecuadorian Andes. Our results predict that although cooperation had short-term costs for individual farmers, it paid in the long run as it decreased pest infestation at the community scale. However, the slow learning process placed restrictions on the knowledge that could be generated within farmer communities over time, giving rise to natural lags in IPM diffusion and applications. We further showed that if individuals learn from others about the benefits of early prevention of new pests, then educational effort may have a sustainable long-run impact. Consistent with models of information diffusion theory, our results demonstrate how an integrated approach combining ecological and social systems would help better predict the success of IPM programs. This approach has potential beyond pest management as it could be applied to any resource management program seeking to spread innovations across populations

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Modeling invasive species spread in complex landscapes : the case of potato moth in Ecuador

Tropical mountains have a long history of human occupation, and although vulnerable to biological invasions, have received minimal attention in the literature. Understanding invasive pest dynamics in socio-ecological, agricultural landscapes, like the tropical Andes, is a challenging but timely issue for ecologists as it may provide developing countries with new tools to face increasing threats posed by these organisms. In this work, road rehabilitation into a remote valley of the Ecuadorian Andes constituted a natural experiment to study the spatial propagation of an invasive potato tuber moth into a previously non-infested agricultural landscape. We used a cellular automaton to model moth spatio-temporal dynamics. Integrating real-world variables in the model allowed us to examine the relative influence of environmental versus social landscape heterogeneity on moth propagation. We focused on two types of anthropogenic activities: (1) the presence and spatial distribution of traditional crop storage structures that modify local microclimate, and (2) long-distance dispersal (LDD) of moths by human-induced transportation. Data from participatory monitoring of pest invasion into the valley and from a larger-scale field survey on the Ecuadorian Andes allowed us to validate our model against actual presence/absence records. Our simulations revealed that high density and a clumped distribution of storage structures had a positive effect on moth invasion by modifying the temperature of the landscape, and that passive, LDD enhanced moth invasion. Model validation showed that including human influence produced more precise and realistic simulations. We provide a powerful and widely applicable methodological framework that stresses the crucial importance of integrating the social landscape to develop accurate invasion models of pest dynamics in complex, agricultural systems

The effect of diet Interacting with temperature on the development rate of a Noctuidae quinoa pest

The quinoa pest Copitarsia incommoda (Walker, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a cause of significant damage, and it is thus critical for Andean countries to have access to phenological models to maintain production and food safety. These models are key components in pest control strategies in the context of global warming and in the development of sustainable production integrating agroecological concepts. Phenological models are mainly based on outlining the relationship between temperature and development rate. In this study, we investigated the combined effect of protein content within the diet (artificial diet; artificial diet with ?20% protein; artificial diet with +20% protein; natural quinoa diet) and temperature (12, 16.9, 19.5, 22.7, 24.6°C) as drivers of the development rate. Our study supports the literature, since temperature was found to be the main driver of the development rate. It highlights the significant role played by protein content and its interaction with temperature (significant effects of temperature, diet, and diet:temperature on development time using GLMs for all foraging life stages). We discuss the implications of such drivers of the development rate for implementing and applying phenological models that may benefit from including factors other than temperature. While performance curves such as development rate curves obtained from laboratory experiments are still a useful basis for phenological development, we also discuss the need to take into account the heterogeneity of the insect response to environmental factors. This is critical if pest control practices are to be deployed at the optimal time

Occlusal tactile acuity in temporomandibular disorder pain patients: A case-control study

Objective: To compare the smallest thickness that can be perceived between occluding teeth (occlusal tactile acuity, OTA) of temporomandibular disorder pain (TMD-P) patients with that of control (CTR) individuals. Methods: Twenty TMD-P patients (17 women and 3 men, mean age: 31.3 ± 10.4 years) diagnosed according to the Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (DC/TMD) protocol and 20 age- and gender-matched controls (17 women and 3 men, mean age: 31.4 ± 10.5 years) were enrolled. The OTA was tested with 10 different thicknesses: 9 aluminium foils (8 µm-72 µm with a constant increment of 8 µm) and 1 sham test (without foil), each thickness being tested 10 times in random order (100 tests in total). The participants were instructed to close their mouth once and to report whether they felt the foil between their molar teeth. A between-group comparison (TMD-P vs CTR) was performed for each testing thickness (analysis of variance for repeated measurements, with Bonferroni multiple correction) (P <.005). Results: Significantly increased OTA was observed in the TMD-P group for the thicknesses between 8 µm and 40 µm, while no significant differences were found for the sham test and for the larger thicknesses tested (from 48 µm to 72 µm). Conclusions: TMD-pain subjects presented an increased OTA as compared to controls

Occlusal tactile acuity in temporomandibular disorder pain patients: A case-control study

Objective: To compare the smallest thickness that can be perceived between occluding teeth (occlusal tactile acuity, OTA) of temporomandibular disorder pain (TMD-P) patients with that of control (CTR) individuals. Methods: Twenty TMD-P patients (17 women and 3 men, mean age: 31.3 ± 10.4 years) diagnosed according to the Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (DC/TMD) protocol and 20 age- and gender-matched controls (17 women and 3 men, mean age: 31.4 ± 10.5 years) were enrolled. The OTA was tested with 10 different thicknesses: 9 aluminium foils (8 µm-72 µm with a constant increment of 8 µm) and 1 sham test (without foil), each thickness being tested 10 times in random order (100 tests in total). The participants were instructed to close their mouth once and to report whether they felt the foil between their molar teeth. A between-group comparison (TMD-P vs CTR) was performed for each testing thickness (analysis of variance for repeated measurements, with Bonferroni multiple correction) (P <.005). Results: Significantly increased OTA was observed in the TMD-P group for the thicknesses between 8 µm and 40 µm, while no significant differences were found for the sham test and for the larger thicknesses tested (from 48 µm to 72 µm). Conclusions: TMD-pain subjects presented an increased OTA as compared to controls

Measuring ontogenetic shifts in central-place foragers : a case study with honeybees

Measuring time-activity budgets over the complete individual life span is now possible for many animals with the recent advances of life-long individual monitoring devices. Although analyses of changes in the patterns of time-activity budgets have revealed ontogenetic shifts in birds or mammals, no such technique has been applied to date on insects. We tested an automated breakpoint-based procedure to detect, assess and quantify shifts in the temporal pattern of the flight activities in honeybees. We assumed that the learning and foraging stages of honeybees will differ in several respects, to detect the age at onset of foraging (AOF). Using an extensive dataset covering the life-long monitoring of 1,167 individuals, we compared the AOF outputs with the more conventional approaches based on arbitrary thresholds. We further evaluated the robustness of the different methods comparing the foraging time-activity budget allocations between the presumed foragers and confirmed foragers. We revealed a clear-cut learning-foraging ontogenetic shift that differs in duration, frequency and time of occurrence of flights. Although AOF appeared to be highly plastic among bees, the breakpoint-based procedure seems better capable to detect it than arbitrary threshold-based methods that are unable to deal with inter-individual variation. We developed the aof r-package including a broad range of examples with both simulated and empirical datasets to illustrate the simplicity of use of the procedure. This simple procedure is generic enough to be derived from any individual life-long monitoring devices recording the time-activity budgets, and could propose new ecological applications of bio-logging to detect ontogenetic shifts in the behaviour of central-place foragers