Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 200

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances

Detection of Multi-TeV Gamma Rays from Markarian 501 during an Unforeseen Flaring State in 1997 with the Tibet Air Shower Array

In 1997, the BL Lac Object Mrk 501 entered a very active phase and was the brightest source in the sky at TeV energies, showing strong and frequent flaring. Using the data obtained with a high density air shower array that has been operating successfully at Yangbajing in Tibet since 1996, we searched for gamma-ray signals from this source during the period from February through August in 1997. Our observation detected multi-TeV $\gamma$-ray signals at the 3.7-Sigma level during this period. The most rapid increase of the excess counts was observed between April 7 and June 16 and the statistical significance of the excess counts in this period was 4.7-Sigma. Among several observations of flaring TeV gamma-rays from Mrk 501 in 1997, this is the only observation using a conventional air shower array. We present the energy spectrum of gamma-rays which will be worthy to compare with those obtained by imaging atmospheric Cerenkov telescopes.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, To appear in Ap