Predicting the public health benefit of vaccinating cattle against Escherichia coli O157

Identifying the major sources of risk in disease transmission is key to designing effective controls. However, understanding of transmission dynamics across species boundaries is typically poor, making the design and evaluation of controls particularly challenging for zoonotic pathogens. One such global pathogen is Escherichia coli O157, which causes a serious and sometimes fatal gastrointestinal illness. Cattle are the main reservoir for E. coli O157, and vaccines for cattle now exist. However, adoption of vaccines is being delayed by conflicting responsibilities of veterinary and public health agencies, economic drivers, and because clinical trials cannot easily test interventions across species boundaries, lack of information on the public health benefits. Here, we examine transmission risk across the cattle–human species boundary and show three key results. First, supershedding of the pathogen by cattle is associated with the genetic marker stx2. Second, by quantifying the link between shedding density in cattle and human risk, we show that only the relatively rare supershedding events contribute significantly to human risk. Third, we show that this finding has profound consequences for the public health benefits of the cattle vaccine. A naïve evaluation based on efficacy in cattle would suggest a 50% reduction in risk; however, because the vaccine targets the major source of human risk, we predict a reduction in human cases of nearly 85%. By accounting for nonlinearities in transmission across the human–animal interface, we show that adoption of these vaccines by the livestock industry could prevent substantial numbers of human E. coli O157 cases

Controlling magnetic order and quantum disorder in molecule-based magnets.

We investigate the structural and magnetic properties of two molecule-based magnets synthesized from the same starting components. Their different structural motifs promote contrasting exchange pathways and consequently lead to markedly different magnetic ground states. Through examination of their structural and magnetic properties we show that [Cu(pyz)(H 2 O)(gly) 2 ](ClO 4 ) 2 may be considered a quasi-one-dimensional quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet whereas the related compound [Cu(pyz)(gly)](ClO 4 ) , which is formed from dimers of antiferromagnetically interacting Cu 2+ spins, remains disordered down to at least 0.03 K in zero field but shows a field-temperature phase diagram reminiscent of that seen in materials showing a Bose-Einstein condensation of magnons

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

Ricci flow and black holes

Gradient flow in a potential energy (or Euclidean action) landscape provides a natural set of paths connecting different saddle points. We apply this method to General Relativity, where gradient flow is Ricci flow, and focus on the example of 4-dimensional Euclidean gravity with boundary S^1 x S^2, representing the canonical ensemble for gravity in a box. At high temperature the action has three saddle points: hot flat space and a large and small black hole. Adding a time direction, these also give static 5-dimensional Kaluza-Klein solutions, whose potential energy equals the 4-dimensional action. The small black hole has a Gross-Perry-Yaffe-type negative mode, and is therefore unstable under Ricci flow. We numerically simulate the two flows seeded by this mode, finding that they lead to the large black hole and to hot flat space respectively, in the latter case via a topology-changing singularity. In the context of string theory these flows are world-sheet renormalization group trajectories. We also use them to construct a novel free energy diagram for the canonical ensemble.Comment: 31 pages, 14 color figures. v2: Discussion of the metric on the space of metrics corrected and expanded, references adde

Controlling magnetic order and quantum disorder in molecule-based magnets

We investigate the structural and magnetic properties of two molecule-based magnets synthesized from the same starting components. Their different structural motifs promote contrasting exchange pathways and consequently lead to markedly different magnetic ground states. Through examination of their structural and magnetic properties we show that [Cu(pyz)(H2O)(gly)2](ClO4)2 may be considered a quasi-one-dimensional quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet whereas the related compound [Cu(pyz)(gly)](ClO4), which is formed from dimers of antiferromagnetically interacting Cu2+ spins, remains disordered down to at least 0.03 K in zero field but shows a field-temperature phase diagram reminiscent of that seen in materials showing a Bose-Einstein condensation of magnons

Lifespan theorem for constrained surface diffusion flows

We consider closed immersed hypersurfaces in $\R^{3}$ and $\R^4$ evolving by a class of constrained surface diffusion flows. Our result, similar to earlier results for the Willmore flow, gives both a positive lower bound on the time for which a smooth solution exists, and a small upper bound on a power of the total curvature during this time. By phrasing the theorem in terms of the concentration of curvature in the initial surface, our result holds for very general initial data and has applications to further development in asymptotic analysis for these flows.Comment: 29 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1201.657

Stratigraphy and chronology of a 15ka sequence of multi-sourced silicic tephras in a montane peat bog, eastern North Island, New Zealand.

We document the stratigraphy, composition, and chronology of a succession of 16 distal, silicic tephra layers interbedded with lateglacial and Holocene peats and muds up to c. 15 000 radiocarbon years (c. 18 000 calendar years) old at a montane site (Kaipo Bog) in eastern North Island, New Zealand. Aged from 665 +/- 15 to 14 700 +/- 95 14C yr BP, the tephras are derived from six volcanic centres in North Island, three of which are rhyolitic (Okataina, Taupo, Maroa), one peralkaline (Tuhua), and two andesitic (Tongariro, Egmont). Correlations are based on multiple criteria: field properties and stratigraphic interrelationships, ferromagnesian silicate mineral assemblages, glass-shard major element composition (from electron microprobe analysis), and radiocarbon dating. We extend the known distribution of tephras in eastern North Island and provide compositional data that add to their potential usefulness as isochronous markers. The chronostratigraphic framework established for the Kaipo sequence, based on both site-specific and independently derived tephra-based radiocarbon ages, provides the basis for fine-resolution paleoenvironmental studies at a climatically sensitive terrestrial site from the mid latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Tephras identified as especially useful paleoenvironmental markers include Rerewhakaaitu and Waiohau (lateglacial), Konini (lateglacial-early Holocene), Tuhua (middle Holocene), and Taupo and Kaharoa (late Holocene)