Recursive estimation of possibly misspecified MA(1) models: Convergence of a general algorithm

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses Pseudolinear Regression (PLR--also referred to as AML and $RML_1$) and Recursive Maximum Likelihood ($RML_2$) without monitoring. Stimulated by the approach of Hannan (1980), our convergence results are obtained indirectly by showing that the recursive sequence can be approximated by a sequence satisfying a recursion of simpler (Robbins-Monro) form for which convergence results applicable to our situation have recently been obtained.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000932 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Early-life-history profiles, seasonal abundance, and distribution of four species of Clupeid larvae from the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1982 and 1983

We present data on ichthyoplankton distribution, abundance, and seasonality and supporting environmental information for four species of coastal pelagics from the family Clupeidae: round herring Etrumeus teres, scaled sardine Harengula jaguana, Atlantic thread herring Opisthonema oglinum, and Spanish sardine Sardinella aurita. Data are from 1982 and 1983 cruises across the northern Gulf of Mexico sponsored by the Southeastern Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP). This is the first such examination for these species on a multiyear and gulfwide scale. Bioproflles on reproductive biology, early life history, meristics, adult distribution, and fisheries characteristics are also presented for these species. During the summer, larval Atlantic thread herring and scaled and Spanish sardines were abundant on the inner shelf <40 m depth), but were rare or absent in deeper waters. Scaled sardine and thread herring were found virtually everywhere inner-shelf waters were sampled, but Spanish sardines were rare in the north-central Gulf. During 1982, larval Atlantic thread herring were the most abundant of the four target c1upeid species, whereas Spanish sardine were the most abundant during 1983. On the west Florida shelf, Spanish sardine dominated larval c1upeid populations both years. Scaled sardine larvae were the least abundant of the four species both years, but were still captured in 25% of inner-shelf bongo net collections. Round herring larvae, collected February-early June (primarily March-April), were abundant on the outer shelf (40-182 m depth) and especially off Louisiana. Over the 2-year period, outer-shelf mean abundance for round herring was 40.2 larvae/10 m2; inner-shelf mean abundances for scaled sardine, Atlantic thread herring, and Spanish sardine were 14.9, 39.2, and 41.9 larvae/l0 m2, respectively. (PDF file contains 66 pages.

Liquidity and fire sales

A “fire sale” occurs when the owner of a good offers it for sale at a price strictly below the price that some buyers would willingly pay for the good. He does so because the advantage of the quick sale made possible by the lower price outweighs the higher price that other potential buyers would pay, given the likely delay in locating these buyers in the latter case. Fire sales can occur only in illiquid markets. This paper generalizes earlier treatments of illiquid markets by assuming that the asset can be offered for sale at any time, rather than only after its owner loses his capacity to operate it profitably. Also, it specifies that profitability follows a random walk.Liquidity (Economics) ; Econometric models

The Effect of Insurance Premium Taxes on Employment

This report provides estimates of the effect of the insurance premium taxes on state-level employment in the insurance industry. FRC Report 18

Product Liability, Entry Incentives, and Industry Structure

Industrial Organization,