Co-evaluation of climate services. A case study for hydropower generation

Climate services are attracting growing attention and interest as instruments to promote climate change adaptation. The transparent assessment of the potential value brought by the services can play a major role. It can foster the commitment of the user towards a co-generation process increasingly central to climate services creation, can provide developers important information to better tailor the service to the user needs, and can finally increase recognition of the value of the service boosting confidence and trust in the tool. This study presents and then demonstrates the applicability of an evaluation methodology based on the Bayesian framework derived from the information value theory. The specific case study is the Smart Climate Hydropower Tool (SCHT), a climate service designed to support management decisions in hydropower generation. The service uses freely available seasonal forecasts and machine learning algorithms to predict incoming discharge to hydropower reservoirs. The user is ENEL Green Power Italy, and the testing environments are two water basins in Colombia. The study defines the expected value of perfect information, the expected value of the information currently used by the hydropower producer and the expected value of the service information. It then discusses pros and cons of the applicability of the method

The economic value of a climate service for water irrigation. A case study for Castiglione District, Emilia-Romagna, Italy

The use of climate services to support decision makers in incorporating climate change adaptation in their practices is well established and widely recognized. Their role is particularly relevant in a climate sensitive sector like agriculture where they can provide evidence for the adoption of transformative solutions from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. Adaptation solutions are often expensive and irreversible in the short/medium run. Accordingly, end users should have a reliable reference to make decisions. Here, we propose and apply a methodology, co-developed with service developers and a representative potential user, to assess the value of the IRRICLIME climate service, whose information is used to support decisions on climate smart irrigation investment by water planners in a sub-irrigation district in Italy. We quantify the value of the information provided by the climate service, that we consider the intrinsic value of the service, or the value of adaptation. We demonstrate that under three different climate change scenarios, the maximum potential value of IRRICLIME could range between 2,985 €/ha and 7,480 €/ha

Thymosin β4 and β10 in Sjögren's syndrome: Saliva proteomics and minor salivary glands expression

Background: In the present study, we investigated whether thymosin β (Tβ) in saliva and in minor salivary glands is differentially expressed in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) and patients with autoimmune diseases (systemic sclerosis [SSc], systemic lupus erythematosus [SLE], and rheumatoid arthritis [RA], with and without sicca syndrome [ss]). Methods: Saliva specimens of nine patients with pSS, seven with ss/SSc, seven with ss/SLE, seven with ss/RA, seven with SSc, seven with SLE, and seven with RA, as well as ten healthy subjects, were analyzed using a high-performance liquid chromatograph coupled with a mass spectrometer equipped with an electrospray ionization source to investigate the presence and levels of Tβ4, Tβ4 sulfoxide, and Tβ10. Immunostaining for Tβ4 and Tβ10 was performed on minor salivary glands of patients with pSS and ss. Results: Tβ4 levels were statistically higher in patients with pSS with respect to the other subgroups. Tβ10 was detectable in 66.7 % of patients with pSS and in 42.8 % of those with ss/SSc, while Tβ4 sulfoxide was detectable in 44.4 % of patients with pSS and in 42.9 % of those with ss/SSc. Tβ10 and Tβ4 sulfoxide were not detectable in patients without associated ss and in healthy control subjects. Regarding thymosin immunostaining, all patients had immunoreactivity for Tβ10, and a comparable distribution pattern in the four different subgroups of patients was observed. Tβ4 immunoreactivity was present in patients with ss/SSc and those with ss/SLE, while it was completely absent in patients with pSS and those with ss/RA. Conclusions: Our data show that higher salivary Tβ expression characterizes patients with pSS, while Tβ4 sulfoxide and Tβ10 salivary expression was selectively present in patients with sicca symptoms. Moreover, at the immunohistochemical level in patients with pSS, minor salivary glands showed a peculiar pattern characterized by immunostaining for Tβ10 in acinar cells in the absence of any reactivity for Tβ4. These findings, taken together, suggest a different role for Tβ4 and Tβ10 in patients with pSS who have ss and other autoimmune disease

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points

Allele *2 of the HS1,2A enhancer of the Ig regulatory region associates with rheumatoid arthritis

Objective: To investigate the role of the HS1.2 enhancer polymorphisms as a new candidate marker for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to define the possible association with autoantibody positivity and clinical outcome. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from two cohorts of patients with RA (100 with early RA (ERA) and 114 with longstanding RA (LSRA)) and from 248 gender-matched controls from the same geographical area. Clinical and immunological characteristics were recorded for all the patients. Results: The percentage of the 2/2 genotype was higher In patients with ERA (27.0%), and In patients with LSRA (34.2%), than In controls (14.9%) (ERA: OR = 2.11 (95% Cl 1.20 to 3.70) vs controls; LSRA: OR = 2.96 (95% Cl 1.76 to 5.00) vs controls). A lower representation of allele *3 was present In patients with ERA (2.0%) than In controls (6.0%; OR = 0.32 (95% Cl 0.11 to 0.91)). No significant associations were found between polymorphisms and autoantibodies positivity. Conclusion: The HS1.2A allele *2 associates with early and longstanding RA

Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea level rise impacts and coastal zone protection

Climate change impacts on coastal zones could be significant unless adaptation is undertaken. One particular macro-economic dimension of sea level rise (SLR) impacts that has received no attention so far is the potential stress of SLR impacts on public budgets. Adaptation will require increased public expenditure to protect assets at risk and could put additional stress on public budgets. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of SLR adaptation and impacts on public budgets. We include fiscal indicators in a climate change impact assessment focusing on SLR impacts and adaptation costs using a computable general equilibrium model extended with a detailed description of the public sector. Coastal protection expenditure is financed issuing government bonds, meaning that coastal adaptation places an additional burden on public budgets. SLR impacts are examined using several scenarios linked to three different Representative Concentration Pathways: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP2 and SSP5. Future projections of direct damages of mean and extreme SLR and adaptation costs are generated by the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment framework. Without adaptation, all world regions suffer a loss and public deficits increase respect to the reference scenario. Higher deficits imply higher government borrowing from household savings reducing available resources for private investments therefore decreasing capital accumulation and growth. Adaptation benefits result from two mechanisms: i) the avoided direct impacts, and ii) a reduced public deficit effect. This allows for an increased capital accumulation, suggesting that support to adaptation in deficit spending might trigger positive effects on public finance sustainability

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states