Density Forecasting: A Survey

A density forecast of the realization of a random variable at some future time is an estimate of the probability distribution of the possible future values of that variable. This article presents a selective survey of applications of density forecasting in macroeconomics and finance, and discusses some issues concerning the production, presentation and evaluation of density forecasts.

Direction-of-Change Forecasts for Asian Equity Markets Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-ofchange forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in the context of two key Asian equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management.

Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics : International Evidence

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of-change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management

Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management

Atypical Eating Behaviors Identified in Children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders, Aged 3 to 5 Years, Using the Children's Eating Behavior Questionnaire in a Caregiver-Reported Online Survey

Background: Children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs), aged 3 to 5 years, have physical, behavioral, and functional problems. Because of alcohol-related deficits, children with FASDs are at risk for malnutrition; yet, little is known about how FASD affects eating behavior and nutrition. Aim: The purpose of this study was to identify atypical eating behavior in children with FASDs, aged 3 to 5 years, and their associations with socio-demographic characteristics. Method:This descriptive cross-sectional study gathered data from a caregiver-reported online survey targeting the eating behavior of preschool-aged children with FASDs. The survey included the Children's Eating Behavior Questionnaire (CEBQ) and a socio-demographic questionnaire. Participants/Setting:Seventy-four caregivers qualified for the study with nine having two children with FASDs. Responses to survey questions varied since caregivers had permission to omit any question. Results: Significant differences were found between the preschool-aged children with FASDs and Wardle's published normative sample by gender and age. Compared to reported norms, study children scored higher in Desire to Drink, Food Responsiveness, Emotional Overeating, and Food Fussiness, and lower in Enjoyment of Food. Regarding socio-demographic characteristics, there was greater Enjoyment of Food with larger families and Food Avoidance with college-educated caregivers. Conclusion: Children with FASDs, aged 3 to 5 years, have atypical eating behaviors characteristic of maladaptive appetites, overeating under stress, selective eating, slowness in eating, and an excessive need for drinks, in comparison with a published normative sample

Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics : International Evidence

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management