A study of the dynamics of rotating space stations with elastically connected counterweight and attached flexible appendages. Volume 1: Theory

The formulation of a mathematical model for predicting the dynamic behavior of rotating flexible space station configurations was conducted. The overall objectives of the study were: (1) to develop the theoretical techniques for determining the behavior of a realistically modeled rotating space station, (2) to provide a versatile computer program for the numerical analysis, and (3) to present practical concepts for experimental verification of the analytical results. The mathematical model and its associated computer program are described

Multiscaled Cross-Correlation Dynamics in Financial Time-Series

The cross correlation matrix between equities comprises multiple interactions between traders with varying strategies and time horizons. In this paper, we use the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform to calculate correlation matrices over different timescales and then explore the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. The dynamics of the eigenvalue spectrum at different times and scales provides insight into the interactions between the numerous constituents involved. Eigenvalue dynamics are examined for both medium and high-frequency equity returns, with the associated correlation structure shown to be dependent on both time and scale. Additionally, the Epps effect is established using this multivariate method and analyzed at longer scales than previously studied. A partition of the eigenvalue time-series demonstrates, at very short scales, the emergence of negative returns when the largest eigenvalue is greatest. Finally, a portfolio optimization shows the importance of timescale information in the context of risk management

Investigating source confusion in PMN J1603−-4904

PMN J1603$-$4904 is a likely member of the rare class of $\gamma$-ray emitting young radio galaxies. Only one other source, PKS 1718$-$649, has been confirmed so far. These objects, which may transition into larger radio galaxies, are a stepping stone to understanding AGN evolution. It is not completely clear how these young galaxies, seen edge-on, can produce high-energy $\gamma$-rays. PMN J1603$-$4904 has been detected by TANAMI Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations and has been followed-up with multiwavelength observations. A Fermi/LAT $\gamma$-ray source has been associated with it in the LAT catalogs. We have obtained Chandra observations of the source in order to consider the possibility of source confusion, due to the relatively large positional uncertainty of Fermi/LAT. The goal was to investigate the possibility of other X-ray bright sources in the vicinity of PMN J1603$-$4904 that could be counterparts to the $\gamma$-ray emission. With Chandra/ACIS, we find no other sources in the uncertainty ellipse of Fermi/LAT data, which includes an improved localization analysis of 8 years of data. We further study the X-ray fluxes and spectra. We conclude that PMN J1603$-$4904 is indeed the second confirmed $\gamma$-ray bright young radio galaxy.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Quantifying dynamics of the financial correlations

A novel application of the correlation matrix formalism to study dynamics of the financial evolution is presented. This formalism allows to quantify the memory effects as well as some potential repeatable intradaily structures in the financial time-series. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) data over the time-period between November 1997 and December 1999 and demonstrates a power of the method. In this way two significant new aspects of the DAX evolution are identified: (i) the memory effects turn out to be sizably shorter than what the standard autocorrelation function analysis seems to indicate and (ii) there exist short term repeatable structures in fluctuations that are governed by a distinct dynamics. The former of these results may provide an argument in favour of the market efficiency while the later one may indicate origin of the difficulty in reaching a Gaussian limit, expected from the central limit theorem, in the distribution of returns on longer time-horizons.Comment: 10 pages, 7 PostScript figures, talk presented by the first Author at the NATO ARW on Econophysics, Prague, February 8-10, 2001; to be published in proceedings (Physica A

Portfolio Optimization and the Random Magnet Problem

Diversification of an investment into independently fluctuating assets reduces its risk. In reality, movement of assets are are mutually correlated and therefore knowledge of cross--correlations among asset price movements are of great importance. Our results support the possibility that the problem of finding an investment in stocks which exposes invested funds to a minimum level of risk is analogous to the problem of finding the magnetization of a random magnet. The interactions for this ``random magnet problem'' are given by the cross-correlation matrix {\bf \sf C} of stock returns. We find that random matrix theory allows us to make an estimate for {\bf \sf C} which outperforms the standard estimate in terms of constructing an investment which carries a minimum level of risk.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, revte

Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising

In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies

Connection between the Accretion Disk and Jet in the Radio Galaxy 3C 111

We present the results of extensive multi-frequency monitoring of the radio galaxy 3C 111 between 2004 and 2010 at X-ray (2.4--10 keV), optical (R band), and radio (14.5, 37, and 230 GHz) wave bands, as well as multi-epoch imaging with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at 43 GHz. Over the six years of observation, significant dips in the X-ray light curve are followed by ejections of bright superluminal knots in the VLBA images. This shows a clear connection between the radiative state near the black hole, where the X-rays are produced, and events in the jet. The X-ray continuum flux and Fe line intensity are strongly correlated, with a time lag shorter than 90 days and consistent with zero. This implies that the Fe line is generated within 90 light-days of the source of the X-ray continuum. The power spectral density function of X-ray variations contains a break, with steeper slope at shorter timescales. The break timescale of 13 (+12,-6) days is commensurate with scaling according to the mass of the central black hole based on observations of Seyfert galaxies and black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs). The data are consistent with the standard paradigm, in which the X-rays are predominantly produced by inverse Compton scattering of thermal optical/UV seed photons from the accretion disk by a distribution of hot electrons --- the corona --- situated near the disk. Most of the optical emission is generated in the accretion disk due to reprocessing of the X-ray emission. The relationships that we have uncovered between the accretion disk and the jet in 3C 111, as well as in the FR I radio galaxy 3C 120 in a previous paper, support the paradigm that active galactic nuclei and Galactic BHXRBs are fundamentally similar, with characteristic time and size scales proportional to the mass of the central black holeComment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 18 pages, 17 figures, 11 tables (full machine readable data-tables online in ApJ website

Random Matrix Theory Analysis of Cross Correlations in Financial Markets

We confirm universal behaviors such as eigenvalue distribution and spacings predicted by Random Matrix Theory (RMT) for the cross correlation matrix of the daily stock prices of Tokyo Stock Exchange from 1993 to 2001, which have been reported for New York Stock Exchange in previous studies. It is shown that the random part of the eigenvalue distribution of the cross correlation matrix is stable even when deterministic correlations are present. Some deviations in the small eigenvalue statistics outside the bounds of the universality class of RMT are not completely explained with the deterministic correlations as proposed in previous studies. We study the effect of randomness on deterministic correlations and find that randomness causes a repulsion between deterministic eigenvalues and the random eigenvalues. This is interpreted as a reminiscent of ``level repulsion'' in RMT and explains some deviations from the previous studies observed in the market data. We also study correlated groups of issues in these markets and propose a refined method to identify correlated groups based on RMT. Some characteristic differences between properties of Tokyo Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange are found.Comment: RevTex, 17 pages, 8 figure