THE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

This paper summarizes the general condition of the North Dakota economy and the outlook for the next few years, addressing recent and projected changes in employment, personal income, and population. Forces affecting the growth and decline of various economic sectors are discussed, and specific examples of new or expanding firms in various economic sectors are presented. Differences in economic performance among regions of the state and between urban and rural areas are examined, and major factors affecting the state's economy over the next two to five years are explored.economic outlook, North Dakota, employment, income, population, Labor and Human Capital,

USING INPUT-OUTPUT (I-O) ANALYSIS IN EVALUATING CONSERVATION PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS: LESSONS LEARNED FROM EVALUATION OF THE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM (CRP)

This paper describes the use of input-output modeling in estimating the economic impacts of the conservation reserve program (CRP) in North Dakota, discusses challenges faced in conducting the analysis, and examines lessons learned from the study. The study had two major phases: (1) a statewide survey of CRP participants was conducted to determine selected characteristics of those individuals and their enrolled land that would be important for subsequent impact estimation and (2) a regional input-output model was used to estimate the indirect effects of the CRP program for each of the state's five pool groups. The results of this analysis indicated that the impacts of the Conservation Reserve Program on the North Dakota economy were relatively modest. Based on the 1.3 million acres removed from production through the fifth sign-up, total business activity was reduced by only 0.54 percent statewide and 0.91 percent for the most affected region. However, it should be noted that the impacts were not distributed uniformly among sectors or communities.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION NORTH DAKOTA COOPERATIVES MAKE TO THE STATE ECONOMY

Cooperatives are an important form of business organization in North Dakota; 405 cooperatives were operating in the state in 2004, with most (224) related to agriculture (farm supply, agricultural processing, and grain handling). In addition, 33 utility, 66 financial, and 82 cooperatives classified as "other" were operating in the state in 2004. Cooperatives exist to enhance sale price, reduce costs, or provide a service or product for their member-owners, but they also contribute significantly to the state's economy. This report will provide estimates of the contribution North Dakota cooperatives make to the state economy measured in terms of such key economic indicators as retail trade, personal income, total business activity, employment, and tax revenue. North Dakota cooperatives' in-state direct expenditures totaled $2.0 billion in 2004. The largest expenditure category was the household sector ($802.0 million) which was comprised of payroll, patronage refunds, and stock retirement. The direct expenditures were applied to an input-output model to estimate total economic impacts. Total economic contribution resulting from cooperatives' direct expenditures was $6.1 billion in 2004, including$2.2 billion in personal income, and $1.5 billion in retail trade activity. Cooperatives provided full-time jobs for 11,162 workers with many of these jobs in rural areas, and cooperative activities supported an additional 53,676 secondary jobs throughout the state economy.cooperatives, North Dakota, economic impact, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS IN NORTH DAKOTA: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

The socioeconomic impact of four agricultural processing plants on their respective North Dakota communities was investigated. The objectives were (1) to evaluate the impact of plant construction and operation on economic, demographic, public service, and fiscal structures of rural areas and (2) to develop a set of general principles and recommended actions for community leaders to follow when a new agricultural processing facility is being considered. The selected communities were Carrington (Foster County), Jamestown (Stutsman County), New Rockford (Eddy County), and Wapheton (Richland County). In-depth personal interviews of community leaders were conducted in each community. In addition, a representative from the agricultural processing plant was also interviewed. Subsequently, a random drop-off/pick-up survey was conducted in the communities. A total of 469 questionnaires (85 percent response rate) were completed by community residents. Improved job opportunities and enhanced incomes were seen as major benefits to the local communities with the addition of the agricultural processing plants. Except for a few management and engineering positions, most of the available jobs were filled by area residents. The addition of the plants did not result in a large in-migration of people to fill positions. The residents' incomes were enhanced by the payroll of the plants. The areas where the plants are located had experienced a declining population base for some time. The siting of these plants did not reverse this trend; however, the employment of the processing plants did help slow the depopulation trend. The availability of 'affordable' housing was a concern in most of the communities. Most of the plant workers wages ($9-13/hour) would not allow for purchasing a new or existing homes in these communities. In one community, there were vacant homes which had been forfeited to the city in-lieu of property taxes. These homes have since been sold and are contributing property taxes to the community. Availability of day care was an issue in all communities. Also, if the plants operated on a 24 hour schedule, extended hour day care was an issue. Two of the communities in which the processing plants operated 24 hours per day offered extended hour day care, but in both cases the demand for extended day care did not justify the additional expense. The short- and long-term implications of local tax abatements were an issue for all communities. Some felt that local governments were leveraging the community's fiscal resources too much, while others believed that the community needed to be more concerned with the longer-term implications of tax abatements. At any rate, the consensus was that residents needed to be kept informed regarding commitments being made to a project and the implications of those commitments. Community leader advice to other communities considering economic development projects could generally be categorized as 1) appropriateness of project and compatibility with community, 2) infrastructure planning and financing, 3) anticipating issues and needs, and 4) development approach and attitude.agricultural processing, community impact, economic development, Agribusiness,

Economic Impact of Leafy Spurge in Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

North Dakota Lignite Energy Industry's Contribution to the State Economy for 2008 and Projected for 2009

Agribusiness, Land Economics/Use,

THRESHOLD POPULATION LEVELS FOR RURAL RETAIL BUSINESSES IN NORTH DAKOTA, 2000

Business and community leaders frequently question the population level necessary to provide adequate sales volume for a particular type of business. This study examines population levels associated with specified numbers of 16 business types in North Dakota towns between 200 and 10,000 population in 2000. The data used to identify the presence of particular types of businesses in a given community were records of sales and use tax permit holders by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group from the North Dakota State Tax Department. Threshold populations for the 16 business types were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis. The resulting estimates indicate that the populations required to support various business types vary substantially. Businesses with relatively low population requirements included eating and drinking places. Department stores and variety stores had the highest population thresholds among the businesses studied. When the threshold estimates were compared with similar estimates for 1988, the threshold population to support one business had decreased for four business types (eating places, drinking places, farm supply, and drug stores), while for the other 12, the threshold populations had increased.retail businesses, rural business, trade and service sector, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING OF IRRIGATED POTATOES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

Agricultural areas can be significantly impacted by high-value crops. Irrigated potato production has significantly affected central North Dakota. Interested growers in the Jamestown area recognized the need and the potential for irrigated potato production and processing, and eventually convinced a private company to build a processing plant to make frozen potato products from their irrigated potatoes. Securing a private entity to process their product freed up capital for irrigation development and other potato enterprise purchases. Economic impacts resulting from the addition of irrigated potatoes and associated processing were analyzed in this study. This analysis is divided into two parts, construction/start-up (one-time) and operational (on-going) impacts. Construction/start-up phase includes plant construction, purchases of irrigation equipment, farmer purchases of potato machinery, and grower spending for potato storage facilities. The operational-phase includes processing plant expenditures and grower production expenditures net of the most likely non-irrigated crop. Direct expenditures for the construction/start-up phase were over $50 million for the 1995-96 period. This was comprised of$10.5 million for plant construction, $23.1 million for irrigation equipment,$3.4 million for potato grower machinery, and $13.0 million for grower potato storage facilities. Annual operational-phase direct expenditures were over$55 million, with the processing plant expenditures being $33.4 million and grower production outlays at$22.0 million. These direct expenditures were applied to the North Dakota Input-Output model to determine the economic impact of this project. Construction/start-up phase economic impact was estimated to be nearly $28 million in added personal income, over$44 million in new retail sales, and a total gross business volume of $115 million. Annual impacts from the operational phase included a personal income increase of nearly$48 million, increased retail sales of almost $48 million, and total business activity of$148 million. Increased tax collections to the state were estimated to total $2.7 million during the construction/start-up phase and$3.1 million annually during the operational phase. This economic development activity resulted in a peak of 260 plant construction jobs and a permanent plant work force of 250 full-time equivalents. In addition, operational-phase secondary employment was estimated to be 1,569 full-time equivalent workers.economic impact, economic development, agricultural processing, high-value crop production, Crop Production/Industries,

NORTH DAKOTA LIGNITE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE STATE ECONOMY FOR 2005 AND PROJECTED FOR 2006

This report provides estimates of the lignite industry's contribution to the North Dakota economy, using key economic indicators such as retail trade activity, personal income, total business activity, employment, and tax revenues. The estimates are based on actual industry expenditures for 2005 and projected expenditures for 2006. This analysis contains two measures of the relative importance of the lignite energy industry in North Dakota. First, the industry's share of the state's total sales to final demand (or exports) is evaluated. Second, the business volume generated by the industry is compared to the total gross business volume for the state. Expenditures were obtained from a survey of firms involved in lignite-related activities (mining or conversion) in North Dakota. Finally, wages paid by the coal mining sector are compared to those paid by other sectors of the state economy. In 2005, the lignite industry accounted for $587.1 million in direct expenditures and$1.8 billion in total economic impacts. The lignite industry directly employed 3,858 workers in 2005, and generated an estimated 17,771 secondary jobs throughout the state economy.economic impacts, lignite (coal) mining, lignite conversion, input-output analysis, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS: A STUDY OF SEVEN WESTERN COUNTIES

Impacts of energy development on the secondary business sector of development-impacted counties are examined in a survey of seven western counties. Problems experienced by businesses in attracting and retaining qualified employees and in expanding to take advantage of growing markets are evaluated. Characteristics of private and public sector employees and their implications for community planning are discussed.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital,