Financial diversification strategies before World War I: Buy-and-hold versus naïve portfolio selection

This study contributes to a growing volume of scholarship that highlights the importance of financial diversification in business history. It shows that, pre-WWI, financial advice for equal portfolio weighting, the so-called naïve diversification, then called scientific investment or geographical distribution of risk, was a sophisticated strategy for Victorian investors and not suboptimal to Markowitz optimization. Drawing upon a unique dataset of 507 individual portfolios at death, this study shows that, although Victorian investors, in particular wealthy investors, did diversify investment risk across a number of securities, they did not hold equally weighted portfolios. It explores possible reasons for the unbalanced nature of investor portfolios and dismisses socio economic factors, illiquidity, passive ‘buy the market’ and market timing strategies as possible explanatory factors. The results rather point to a strategy of naïve diversification spread over time, a ‘buy as you go and hold strategy’, buying new securities as savings allowed and holding them until death

Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards

It is often maintained that currency boards (CBs) and gold standards (GSs) are alike in that they are stringent monetary rules, the two basic features of which are high credibility of monetary authorities and the existence of automatic adjustment (non discretionary) mechanism. This article includes a comparative analysis of these two types of regimes both from the perspective of the sources and mechanisms of generating confidence and credibility, and the elements of operation of the automatic adjustment mechanism. Confidence under the GS is endogenously driven, whereas it is exogenously determined under the CB. CB is a much more asymmetric regime than GS (the adjustment is much to the detriment of peripheral countries) although asymmetry is a typical feature of any monetary regime. The lack of credibility is typical for peripheral countries and cannot be overcome completely even by “hard” monetary regimes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40078/3/wp692.pd

Currency Unions

A currency union is when several independent sovereign nations share a common currency. This has been a recurring phenomenon in monetary history. In this article I study the theoretical foundations of such unions, and discuss some important currency unions in history, most notably the case of the US. Finally I contrast the design of the EMU with economic theories and historical experiences of currency unions

Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period

What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long‐run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs and short‐run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s. We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre‐existing efforts toward the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China‐ and US‐centric trade blocs

Introduction: new research in monetary history - A map

This handbook aims to provide a comprehensive (though obviously not exhaustive) picture of state-of-the-art international scholarship on the history of money and currency. The chapters of this handbook cover a wide selection of research topics. They span chronologically from antiquity to nowadays and are geographically stretched from Latin America to Asia, although most of them focus on Western Europe and the USA, as a large part of the existing research does. The authors of these chapters constitute, we hope, a balanced sample of various generations of scholars who contributed to what Barry Eichengreen defined as "the new monetary and financial history" – an approach that combines the analysis of monetary aggregates and policies with the structure and dynamics of the banking sector and financial markets. We have structured this handbook in ten broad thematic parts: the historical origins of money; money, coinage, and the state; trade, money markets, and international currencies; money and metals; monetary experiments; Asian monetary systems; exchange rate regimes; monetary integration; central banking and monetary policy; and aggregate price shocks. In this introduction, we offer for each part some historical context, a few key insights from the literature, and a brief analytical summary of each chapter. Our aim is to draw a map that hopefully will help readers to organize their journey through this very wide and diverse research area

At the Crossroads: The Euro and Its Central Bank Guardian (and Savior?)

This paper investigates the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the (mal-) functioning of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the German intellectual and historical traditions behind the euro policy regime and its central bank guardian. The analysis contrasts Keynes's chartalist conception of money and central banking to the peculiar post-WWII German traditions as nourished by the Bundesbank and based on fear of fiscal dominance. Keynes viewed the central bank as an instrument of the state, leading and controlling the financial system and wider economy but ultimately an integral part of, and controlled by, the state. By contrast, the Maastricht (EMU) regime (of German design) positions the central bank as controlling the state (and disciplining labor unions, too). The paper identifies a number of potential weaknesses that could undermine the euro's guardian of stability, and ultimately the euro itself. Essentially, the national success of the Bundesbank model in pre-EMU times has left Europe stuck with a policy regime that is wholly unsuitable for the area as a whole. As the general perception in Germany today is that the euro crisis has confirmed the soundness of the key stability-oriented principles and ideas behind the euro regime, and of the virtuousness of Germany's own conduct under that regime in particular, it is hard to see how Europe might escape doom through regime reform and policies that would need to permanently put to rest Bundesbank wisdom

Money: A Market Microstructure Approach

The current discussion about the future of the financial system draws heavily on a set of theories known as the ‘New Monetary Economics’. The New Monetary Economics predicts that deregulation and financial innovation will lead to a moneyless world. This paper uses a market microstructure approach to show that a common medium of exchange that serves as unit of account will remain a necessary instrument to reduce transaction costs. This finding is supported by empirical evidence from foreign exchange markets

International money markets: eurocurrencies

Eurocurrencies are international markets for short-term wholesale bank deposits and loans. They emerged in Western Europe in the late 1950s and rapidly reached a global scale. A Eurocurrency is a form of bank money: an unsecured short-term bank debt denominated in a currency (for instance, US dollars) but issued by banks operating offshore, in a geographical location or a legal space situated outside of the jurisdiction of the national authorities presiding over that currency (for instance, the Federal Reserve). In Eurocurrency markets, banks intermediate mainly between foreign residents. They borrow funds by "accepting" foreign currency deposits and lend foreign currency-denominated funds by "placing" deposits with other banks, by granting short-term loans or investing in other liquid assets. Historically, Eurodollars accounted for the largest share of Eurocurrencies, although other international currencies (Deutsche Marks, Japanese yens, and especially Euros since 1999) played an important role. Eurocurrency markets were a manifestation of financial integration and interdependence in a globalizing economy and performed critical functions in the distribution and creation of international liquidity. At the same time, their fast growth was a recurrent source of concerns for central bankers and policymakers due to their implications for macroeconomic policies and financial stability. This chapter analyzes different aspects of the historical development of Eurocurrency markets and their role in the international monetary and financial system. The first part discusses theoretical interpretations, presents estimates of markets' size, describes their structure, and explains the determinants of their growth. The second part analyzes the spread between Eurodollar rates and other US money market rates, the role of arbitrage, the evolution of risk factors, and the causes of historical episodes of stress and contagion in the interbank market. The last part discusses political economy issues, such as the role of governments and market forces in the emergence of Eurodollars in the 1950s and the failed attempts to impose multilateral controls on Eurocurrency markets in the 1970s