Extreme Events in a Globalized Food System

Our food systems are complex and globally interdependent and are presently struggling to feed the world’s population. As population grows and the world becomes increasingly unstable and subject to shocks, it is imperative that we acknowledge the systemic nature of our food system and enhance its resilience

Systemic risks emerging from global climate hotspots and their impacts on Europe

In a globalized world, Europe is increasingly affected by climate change events beyond its borders that propagate through our interconnected systems impacting the socio-economic welfare in Europe. The REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT) project uses a novel stakeholder-driven storytelling approach that maps representative connections between remote climate hazards such as droughts or hurricanes and European socio-economic activities in the agricultural, finance, development, shipping and manufacturing sectors. As part of RECEIPT, this work focuses on systemic risks in global climate risk hotspots and their knock-on effects on the European economy. In five stakeholder workshops, expert elicitation methods are used to identify and map sector- and storyline-specific systemic risks: interlinkages between different events, hidden causes and consequences, potential feedback loops, uncertainties and other systemic risk characteristics will be investigated. A special focus lies on “gray rhino” events, “foreseeable random surprises” that follow clear warning signs but are only known to a smaller group of people. Results reveal sector-specific “topographies of risk” within the storylines identified by stakeholders

Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure

The risk of extreme climatic conditions leading to unusually low global agricultural production is exacerbated if more than one global ‘breadbasket’ is subject to climatic extremes at the same time. Such shocks can pose a risk to the global food system amplifying threats to global food security and have the potential to trigger other systemic risks. So far, while the possibility of climatic extremes hitting more than one breadbasket has been postulated little is known about the actual risk. Here we present quantitative risk estimates of simultaneous breadbasket failures due to climatic extremes and show how risk has changed over time. We combine region-specific data on agricultural production with spatial statistics of climatic extremes to quantify the changing risk of low production for the major food producing regions (‘breadbaskets’) in the world. We find evidence that there is increasing risk of simultaneous failure of wheat, maize and soybean crops, across the breadbaskets analyzed. For rice, risks of simultaneous adverse climate conditions have decreased in the breadbaskets analyzed in this study in the recent past mostly owing to solar radiation changes favoring rice growth. Depending on the correlation structure between the breadbaskets, spatial dependence between climatic extremes globally can mitigate or aggravate the risks for the global food production. Our analysis can provide the basis for more efficient allocation of resources to contingency plans and/or strategic crop reserves that would enhance the resilience of the global food system

Mn valence instability in La2/3Ca1/3MnO3 thin films

A Mn valence instability on La2/3Ca1/3MnO3 thin films, grown on LaAlO3 (001)substrates is observed by x-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Mn L-edge and O K-edge. As-grown samples, in situ annealed at 800 C in oxygen, exhibit a Curie temperature well below that of the bulk material. Upon air exposure a reduction of the saturation magnetization, MS, of the films is detected. Simultaneously a Mn2+ spectral signature develops, in addition to the expected Mn3+ and Mn4+ contributions, which increases with time. The similarity of the spectral results obtained by total electron yield and fluorescence yield spectroscopy indicates that the location of the Mn valence anomalies is not confined to a narrow surface region of the film, but can extend throughout the whole thickness of the sample. High temperature annealing at 1000 C in air, immediately after growth, improves the magnetic and transport properties of such films towards the bulk values and the Mn2+ signature in the spectra does not appear. The Mn valence is then stable even to prolonged air exposure. We propose a mechanism for the Mn2+ ions formation and discuss the importance of these observations with respect to previous findings and production of thin films devices.Comment: Double space, 21 pages, 6 figure

Climate Activism, Social Media and Behavioural Change: A Literature Review

Social change significantly influences climate action through various mechanisms, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviors and lifestyle, as well as activism that puts pressure on decisionmakers for stricter climate action. Public opinion and attitudes towards climate change and solutions are driven by a complex interplay of several individual, social, economic and environmental factors. Youth climate activism, exemplified by the Fridays for Future (FFF) movement, and social media engagement are two of such interconnected factors. This review paper addresses the impact of youth-led climate protests on online discussions about climate change and solutions, particularly focusing on the influence of social media on shaping societal norms and consumption preferences, notably dietary patterns. Further, it explores the potential of Reddit as a space for deliberative dialogue and a useful data source to analyse public discourse on climate change. By synthesizing existing literature, this paper provides insights for further research on using social media data as a resource to understand the drivers of changing public attitudes towards climate change and climate-friendly behaviors

The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: an integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach

Climate shocks to food systems have been thoroughly researched in terms of food security and supply chain management. However, sparse research exists on the dependent nature of climate shocks on food-producing breadbasket regions and their subsequent cascading impacts. In this paper, we propose that a copula approach, combined with a multilayer network and an agent-based model, can give important insights on how tail-dependent shocks can impact food systems. We show how such shocks can potentially cascade within a region through the behavioral interactions of various layers. Based on our suggested framework, we set up a model for India and show that risks due to drought events multiply if tail dependencies during extremes drought is explicitly taken into account. We further demonstrate that the risk is exacerbated if displacement also takes place. In order to quantify the spatial–temporal evolution of climate risks, we introduce a new measure of multilayer vulnerability that we term Vulnerability Rank or VRank. We find that with higher food production losses, the number of agents that are affected increases nonlinearly due to cascading effects in different network layers. These effects spread to the unaffected regions via large-scale displacement causing sudden changes in production, employment and consumption decisions. Thus, demand shifts also force supply-side adjustments of food networks in the months following the climate shock. We suggest that our framework can provide a more accurate picture of food security-related systemic risks caused by multiple breadbasket failures which, in turn, can better inform risk management and humanitarian aid strategies

Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming

The increasingly inter-connected global food system is becoming more vulnerable to production shocks owing to increasing global mean temperatures and more frequent climate extremes. Little is known, however, about the actual risks of multiple breadbasket failure due to extreme weather events. Motivated by the Paris Climate Agreement, this paper quantifies spatial risks to global agriculture in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. This paper focuses on climate risks posed to three major crops - wheat, soybean and maize - in five major global food producing areas. Climate data from the atmosphere-only HadAM3P model as part of the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) experiment are used to analyse the risks of climatic extreme events. Using the copula methodology, the risks of simultaneous crop failure in multiple breadbaskets are investigated. Projected losses do not scale linearly with global warming increases between 1.5 and 2 °C Global Mean Temperature (GMT). In general, whilst the differences in yield at 1.5 versus 2 °C are significant they are not as large as the difference between 1.5 °C and the historical baseline which corresponds to 0.85 °C above pre-industrial GMT. Risks of simultaneous crop failure, however, do increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C, so surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold will represent a threat to global food security. For maize, risks of multiple breadbasket failures increase the most, from 6% to 40% at 1.5 to 54% at 2 °C warming. In relative terms, the highest simultaneous climate risk increase between the two warming scenarios was found for wheat (40%), followed by maize (35%) and soybean (23%). Looking at the impacts on agricultural production, we show that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would avoid production losses of up to 2753 million (161,000, 265,000) tonnes maize (wheat, soybean) in the global breadbaskets and would reduce the risk of simultaneous crop failure by 26%, 28% and 19% respectively