Excess cases of influenza and the coronavirus epidemic in Catalonia: a time-series analysis of primary-care electronic medical records covering over 6 million people

Objectives There is uncertainty about when the first cases of COVID-19 appeared in Spain. We aimed to determine whether influenza diagnoses masked early COVID-19 cases and estimate numbers of undetected COVID-19 cases. Design Time-series study of influenza and COVID-19 cases, 2010–2020. Setting Primary care, Catalonia, Spain. Participants People registered in primary-care practices, covering >6 million people and >85% of the population. Main outcome measures Weekly new cases of influenza and COVID-19 clinically diagnosed in primary care. Analyses Daily counts of both cases were computed using the total cases recorded over the previous 7 days to avoid weekly effects. Epidemic curves were characterised for the 2010–2011 to 2019–2020 influenza seasons. Influenza seasons with a similar epidemic curve and peak case number as the 2019–2020 season were used to model expected case numbers with Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models, overall and stratified by age. Daily excess influenza cases were defined as the number of observed minus expected cases. Results Four influenza season curves (2011–2012, 2012–2013, 2013–2014 and 2016–2017) were used to estimate the number of expected cases of influenza in 2019–2020. Between 4 February 2020 and 20 March 2020, 8017 (95% CI: 1841 to 14 718) excess influenza cases were identified. This excess was highest in the 15–64 age group. Conclusions COVID-19 cases may have been present in the Catalan population when the first imported case was reported on 25 February 2020. COVID-19 carriers may have been misclassified as influenza diagnoses in primary care, boosting community transmission before public health measures were taken. The use of clinical codes could misrepresent the true occurrence of the disease. Serological or PCR testing should be used to confirm these findings. In future, this surveillance of excess influenza could help detect new outbreaks of COVID-19 or other influenza-like pathogens, to initiate early public health responses.</p

The association between fracture site and obesity in men: a population-based cohort study.

A site-dependent association between obesity and fracture has been reported in postmenopausal women. In this study we investigated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and fracture at different skeletal sites in older men (≥65 years). We carried out a population-based cohort study using data from the Sistema d'Informació per al Desenvolupament de l'Investigació en Atenció Primària (SIDIAP(Q) ) database. SIDIAP(Q) contains the primary care and hospital admission computerized medical records of &gt;1300 general practitioners (GPs) in Catalonia (Northeast Spain), with information on a representative 30% of the population (&gt;2 million people). In 2007, 186,171 men ≥65 years were eligible, of whom 139,419 (74.9%) had an available BMI measurement. For this analysis men were categorized as underweight/normal (BMI &lt; 25 kg/m(2) , n = 26,298), overweight (25 ≤ BMI &lt; 30 kg/m(2) , n = 70,851), and obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) , n = 42,270). Incident fractures in the period 2007 to 2009 were ascertained using International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) codes. A statistically significant reduction in clinical spine and hip fractures was observed in obese (relative risk [RR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-0.80 and RR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.54-0.74, respectively), and overweight men (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.92 and RR, 0.63; 95% CI 0.55-0.72, respectively) when compared with underweight/normal men. Additionally, obese men had significantly fewer wrist/forearm (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.97) and pelvic (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70) fractures than underweight/normal men. Conversely, multiple rib fractures were more frequent in overweight (RR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.03-11.37) and obese (RR, 3.96; 95% CI, 1.16-13.52) men. In this population-based cohort of older men, obesity was associated with a reduced risk of clinical spine, hip, pelvis, and wrist/forearm fracture and increased risk of multiple rib fractures when compared to normal or underweight men. Further work is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying these associations

The association between fracture and obesity is site-dependent: a population-based study in postmenopausal women.

The association between obesity and fracture is controversial. We investigated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and fracture at different skeletal sites in women aged ≥50 years using data from the Sistema d' Informació per al Desenvolupament de la Investigació en Atenció Primària (SIDIAP) database. SIDIAP contains the computerized medical records of &gt;3400 general practitioners in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), with information on a representative 80% of the population (&gt;5 million people). In 2009, 1,039,878 women aged ≥50 years were eligible, of whom 832,775 (80.1%) had a BMI measurement. These were categorized into underweight/normal (302,414 women), overweight (266,798), and obese (263,563). Fractures were ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fitted to adjust for age, smoking, high alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes, and oral corticosteroid use. Hip fractures were significantly less common in overweight and obese women than in normal/underweight women (rate ratio [RR] 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.88], RR 0.63 [95% CI 0.64 to 0.79], p &lt; 0.001, respectively). Pelvis fracture rates were lower in the overweight (RR 0.78 [95% CI 0.63 to 0.96], p = 0.017) and obese (RR 0.58 [95% CI 0.47 to 0.73], p &lt; 0.001) groups. Conversely, obese women were at significantly higher risk of proximal humerus fracture than the normal/underweight group (RR 1.28 [95% CI 1.04 to 1.58], p = 0.018). Clinical spine, wrist, tibial, and multiple rib fracture rates were not significantly different between groups. An age-related increase in incidence was seen for all BMI groups at all fracture sites; obese women with hip, clinical spine, and pelvis fracture were significantly younger at the time of fracture than normal/underweight women, whereas those with wrist fracture were significantly older. The association between obesity and fracture in postmenopausal women is site-dependent, obesity being protective against hip and pelvis fractures but associated with an almost 30% increase in risk for proximal humerus fractures when compared with normal/underweight women. The reasons for these site-specific variations are unknown but may be related to different patterns of falls and attenuation of their impact by adipose tissue