Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area.

In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government's primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses.Population Ageing ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Generational Accounting ; Medium-term Objectives for Fiscal Policy

Morphogenesis of otoliths during larval development in brook lamprey, Lampetra planeri

Otolith morphogenesis of the brook lamprey, Lampetra planeri, was analysed from larval to adult stages. The brook lamprey remains juvenile for about 4 years, facilitating analysis of otoliths maturation that permits to identify relevant evolutionary traits in this primitive species and to compare our results with more evoluted species of vertebrate taxa. We combined histochemical, immunohistochemical, scanning electron microscopy, elemental analysis and X-ray diffraction of lamprey otoliths to establish possible relationships between otolithic mass, individual crystals, the otolithic organic substance that binds individual otoconia together and the inorganic elements that mineralize the lamprey otoliths. Histochemical analysis of the otoliths suggests that mineralization occurs gradually, beginning near the apex of the secretory epithelium. Then, the otoconia increase in size by deposition of layers of a dense crystalline substance. Immunohistochemical reactivity of calcium binding proteins indicates that calmodulin, calbindin, S-100 and parvalbumin are parts of the uncalcified organic mass that holds otoconia together. Imaging of the immunoreactivity of each protein by Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy in ammocoete at the first year of the larval stage shows weak reaction products which, however, gradually increase in intensity, with peak value in ammocoete at the fourth year of the larval stage

Mineralogy and genesis of the kihabe Zn-Pb-V prospect, Aha Hills, Northwest Botswana

The Kihabe Zn-Pb-V > (Cu-Ag-Ge) prospect is located at the boundary between Namibia and Botswana (Aha Hills, Ngamiland District) in a strongly deformed Proterozoic fold belt, corresponding to the NE extension of the Namibian Damara Orogen. The Kihabe prospect contains Zn-Pb resources of 14.4 million tonnes at 2.84% zinc equivalent, Ag resources of 3.3 million ounces, and notable V-Ge amounts, still not evaluated at a resource level. The ores are represented by a mixed sulfide–nonsulfide mineralization. Sulfide minerals consist mainly of sphalerite, galena and pyrite in a metamorphic quartzwacke. Among the nonsulfide assemblage, two styles of mineralization occur in the investigated samples: A first one, characterized by hydrothermal willemite and baileychlore, and a second one consisting of supergene smithsonite, cerussite, hemimorphite, Pb-phosphates, arsenates and vanadates. Willemite is present in two generations, which postdate sulfide emplacement and may also form at their expenses. These characteristics are similar to those observed in the willemite occurrences of the nearby Otavi Mountainland, which formed through hydrothermal processes, during the final stages of the Damara Orogeny. The formation of the Kihabe willemite is likely coeval. Baileychlore is characterized by textures indicating direct precipitation from solutions and dissolution–crystallization mechanisms. Both processes are typical of hydrothermal systems, thus suggesting a hydrothermal genesis for the Kihabe Zn-chlorite as well. Baileychlore could represent an alteration halo possibly associated either with the sulfide or with willemite mineralization. The other nonsulfide minerals, smithsonite, cerussite, various Pb-phosphates and vanadates, are clearly genetically associated with late phases of supergene alteration, which overprinted both the sulfide and the willemite-and baileychlore-bearing mineralizations. Supergene alteration probably occurred in this part of Botswana from the Late Cretaceous to the Miocene

New investigations on Zn-clays from Skorpion (Namibia)

Zn-bearing clay minerals occur in several nonsulfide zinc ores, which consist of concentrations of Zn-oxidized minerals such as smithsonite, hydrozincite, hemimorphite, sauconite, and willemite [1,2]. These deposits can be genetically related to both supergene and hypogene processes [1]. Zn-clays are worldwide associated with several supergene nonsulfide ores, where they can represent an important metal source [2,3,4]. The best example is the world-class Skorpion mineralization in Namibia, which is considered so far the largest supergene nonsulfide zinc deposit in the world (original reserves of 24.6 Mt ore at 10.6% Zn). The Skorpion deposit is hosted in Neoproterozoic rocks that are part of a volcano-sedimentary sequence within the Gariep Belt in the southern part of the country. In this deposit the trioctahedral Zn-bearing smectite, named sauconite (0.5Ca,Na)0.3Zn3[AlSi3O10](OH)2·4(H2O), predominates over the other Zn-oxidized minerals, mainly represented by smithsonite, hemimorphite and Zn-bearing phosphates [5,6]. Sauconite mainly occurs here in metasiliciclastic rocks, as coatings/impregnations in intergranular spaces and voids. It is considered to have been formed through the breakdown or dissolution of detrital feldspar and mica, or also by replacement of earlier deposited hemimorphite and smithsonite [6]. Petrographic and chemical analyses (energy and wavelength dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, EDS and WDS) show that the smectite-bearing samples collected for this study consist of an association of sauconite, quartz, smithsonite, K-feldspar and micas (Figure 1). Sauconite shows variable contents of Al and Zn, as well as Fe, Mg and Mn. The interlayer cations are represented by Ca and K in variable amounts. Plots of Zn/Altot vs. Si/Altot show a positive correlation; a positive trend is also observed for the correlations Zn/Altot vs. Ca/K ratios, which is consistent with charge compensation between the layers. TEM-HRTEM investigations carried out on selected samples have allowed to determine the chemistry and the texture of the Zn-clays and related minerals, revealing new and complex mineral assemblages. References: [1] Hitzman MW et al. (2003) Econ Geol 98: 685-714 [2] Boni M and Mondillo N (2015) Ore Geology Reviews 67: 208-233 [3] Boni M et al. (2008) Econ Geol 104: 267-89 [4] Mondillo M et al. (2016) Am Min 100: 2484-96 [5] Borg G et al. (2003) Econ Geol 98: 749-771 [6] Kärner K (2005) PhD thesis 252

Youth daily exposure to tobacco outlets and cigarette smoking behaviors: does exposure within activity space matter?

Aims: To examine whether daily exposure to tobacco outlets within activity spaces is associated with cigarette smoking and with the number of cigarettes smoked by youth that day. Design: The study used geographic ecological momentary assessment (GEMA) data that combined daily surveys with ecological momentary assessment of global positioning systems (GPS) using geographic information systems (GIS) to allow for real-time data collection of participants' environments and behaviors. Setting: Eight mid-sized California (USA) city areas. Participants: The analytical sample included 1065 days, which were clustered within 100 smoker and non-smoker participants (aged 16–20 years, 60% female). Measurements: Any cigarette smoking and number of cigarettes smoked on a given day, the number of tobacco outlets within 100 m of activity space polylines each day, the number of minutes participants spent within 100 m of tobacco outlets each day and demographic characteristics (age, sex, race/ethnicity and perceived socio-economic status). Findings: Controlling for demographic characteristics, the findings of multi-level mixed effects logistic models were inconclusive, whether or not the number of tobacco outlets within 100 m of youths' activity space polylines or the number of minutes spent within 100 m of tobacco outlets were associated with whether the participant smoked cigarettes on a given day [odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, P = 0.24; OR = 0.99, P = 0.81, respectively]. However, in multi-level zero-inflated negative binomial models, the risk of smoking an additional cigarette on a given day increased with each additional tobacco outlet [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.04, P < 0.05] and each additional minute spent within 100 m of tobacco outlets (IRR = 1.01, P < 0.001) each day. Conclusions: Among young people in urban California, differences in day-to-day exposure to tobacco outlets within activity spaces does not seem to be significantly associated with whether a person smokes a cigarette on a given day, but higher exposure to tobacco outlets appears to be positively associated with the number of cigarettes smoked on that day