Cash transfers and the mental health of young people: evidence from South Africa's child support grant

This study examines the longitudinal impact of the South African Child Support Grant (CSG) on risk for depression and life satisfaction among young people (15–19 years). We analysed data from the last three waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), a nationally representative panel survey that took place every two years from 2008 to 2017. We used an instrumental variable (IV) approach that exploits multiple changes in age eligibility from 1998 to 2012. Depressive symptoms were assessed using an 8-item version of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale; participants who scored above 8 were considered at risk for depression. Life satisfaction was rated on a scale of 1 (‘very dissatisfied’) to 10 (‘very satisfied’); participants who scored 8 or above were classified as satisfied. We also examined impacts on educational deficit (≥2 years behind) and not being in education, employment or training (NEET) as secondary outcomes, as these are also important for mental health. Age eligibility strongly predicted CSG receipt at Wave 3. In instrumental variable models, CSG receipt did not influence the risk for depression (β = 0.10, SE = 0.10, p = 0.316), nor life satisfaction (β = −0.07, SE = 0.09, p = 0.420) at Wave 3, nor at Waves 4 or 5. Some improvements in educational deficit were observed at Wave 3 among CSG beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries. These results were robust to multiple specifications. CSG receipt did not improve the psychological wellbeing of adolescents and young adults, nor did it improve their education or employment outcomes. Our findings highlight the need to identify alternative social policies that address the root causes of youth social disadvantage, in conjunction with targeted approaches to improve the mental health of young South Africans living in poverty

Operationalising a metric of nitrogen impacts on biodiversity for the UK response to a data request from the Coordination Centre for Effects

As a signatory party to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), the UK has been requested to provide biodiversity metrics for use in assessing impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution. Models of soil and vegetation responses to N pollution can predict changes in habitat suitability for many plant and lichen species. Metrics are required to relate changes in a set of species to biodiversity targets. In a previous study, the suitability of the habitat for a set of positive indicator-species was found to be the measure, out of potential outputs from models currently applicable to the UK, which was most clearly related to the assessment methods of habitat specialists at the Statutory Nature Conservation Bodies (SNCBs). This report describes the calculation of values for a metric, based on this principle, for a set of example habitats under different N pollution scenarios. The examples are mainly from Natura-2000 sites, and are defined at EUNIS Level 3 (e.g. F4.1 Wet heath). Values for the biodiversity metric were shown to be greater on all sites in the “Background” scenario than in the scenario with greater N and S pollution, illustrating a positive response of biodiversity to reduced pollution. Results of the study were submitted in response to the ‘Call for Data 2012-14’ by the CLTRAP Co-ordination Centre for Effects (CCE), and presented at the 24th CCE Workshop in April 2014. Metrics calculated on a similar basis were also presented by the Netherlands, Switzerland and Denmark. Such metrics indicate biodiversity status more accurately than other types of metric such as Simpson index or similarity to a reference community, so it was decided to adopt habitat-suitability for positive indicator-species as a common basis for a biodiversity metric in this context. Further work is needed to determine the typical range of metric values in different habitats, and threshold values for damage and recovery. Requirements are likely to be specified in detail in the next CCE Call for Data. The current study shows that a biodiversity metric based on habitat-suitability for positive indicator-species is a useful and responsive method for summarising outputs of models of air pollution impacts on ecosystems

Macrophage subpopulation identity in Drosophila is modulated by apoptotic cell clearance and related signalling pathways

In Drosophila blood, plasmatocytes of the haemocyte lineage represent the functional equivalent of vertebrate macrophages and have become an established in vivo model with which to study macrophage function and behaviour. However, the use of plasmatocytes as a macrophage model has been limited by a historical perspective that plasmatocytes represent a homogenous population of cells, in contrast to the high levels of heterogeneity of vertebrate macrophages. Recently, a number of groups have reported transcriptomic approaches which suggest the existence of plasmatocyte heterogeneity, while we identified enhancer elements that identify subpopulations of plasmatocytes which exhibit potentially pro-inflammatory behaviours, suggesting conservation of plasmatocyte heterogeneity in Drosophila. These plasmatocyte subpopulations exhibit enhanced responses to wounds and decreased rates of efferocytosis when compared to the overall plasmatocyte population. Interestingly, increasing the phagocytic requirement placed upon plasmatocytes is sufficient to decrease the size of these plasmatocyte subpopulations in the embryo. However, the mechanistic basis for this response was unclear. Here, we examine how plasmatocyte subpopulations are modulated by apoptotic cell clearance (efferocytosis) demands and associated signalling pathways. We show that loss of the phosphatidylserine receptor Simu prevents an increased phagocytic burden from modulating specific subpopulation cells, while blocking other apoptotic cell receptors revealed no such rescue. This suggests that Simu-dependent efferocytosis is specifically involved in determining fate of particular subpopulations. Supportive of our original finding, mutations in amo (the Drosophila homolog of PKD2), a calcium-permeable channel which operates downstream of Simu, phenocopy simu mutants. Furthermore, we show that Amo is involved in the acidification of the apoptotic cell-containing phagosomes, suggesting that this reduction in pH may be associated with macrophage reprogramming. Additionally, our results also identify Ecdysone receptor signalling, a pathway related to control of cell death during developmental transitions, as a controller of plasmatocyte subpopulation identity. Overall, these results identify fundamental pathways involved in the specification of plasmatocyte subpopulations and so further validate Drosophila plasmatocytes as a heterogeneous population of macrophage-like cells within this important developmental and immune model

Plant functional type affects nitrogen use efficiency in high-Arctic tundra

To unravel the potential effects of climate warming on soil N availability in a high Arctic tundra ecosystem we studied temperature effects on soil mineralization, and N uptake from different soil depths (−3, −10 and −30 cm) by tundra plants. Uptake was assessed using 15N tracer injected directly into mineral soil as 15NH4Cl solution to specifically mimic altered N availability from enhanced mineralization. Net N mineralization rates were very low, suggesting that N is strongly limiting in this system. There was no apparent temperature effect (−2 °C, 5 °C, 10 °C) on mineralization, but net nitrification was strongly limited by temperature – under the −2 °C treatment no nitrification occurred. As a consequence of ongoing mineralization and limited nitrification under freezing conditions, mineral NH4 may accumulate during the winter season and be available for plant uptake without risk of loss via View the MathML sourceNO3− leaching immediately after snowmelt. Nitrogen uptake niches were clearly stratified by depth. Graminoids (Carex misandra and Luzula arctica) were most effective at taking up N from deep soil horizons, and recovery in graminoid biomass after one year was independent of 15N injection depth. Recovery of N by the dwarf shrub Salix polaris was significantly higher following shallow application (−3 cm) compared to deeper treatments (−10 and −30 cm). Lichens and mosses also showed a decline in N uptake with application depth, and very little N was recovered by lichens and mosses even from −3 cm, in contrast to the strong uptake that has been observed in mosses when N is applied to the vegetation surface. The ability of graminoids to access nutrients from deeper mineral soil may give them an advantage over mosses and dwarf shrubs in warmer high Arctic tundra in acquiring limited available nutrient resources

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) parameters for breast fibrosis: pooled results from two randomised trials

Introduction: the dose–volume effect of radiation therapy on breast tissue is poorly understood. We estimate NTCP parameters for breast fibrosis after external beam radiotherapy.Materials and methods: we pooled individual patient data of 5856 patients from 2 trials including whole breast irradiation followed with or without a boost. A two-compartment dose volume histogram model was used with boost volume as the first compartment and the remaining breast volume as second compartment. Results from START-pilot trial (n?=?1410) were used to test the predicted models.Results: 26.8% patients in the Cambridge trial (5?years) and 20.7% patients in the EORTC trial (10?years) developed moderate-severe breast fibrosis. The best fit NTCP parameters were BEUD3(50)?=?136.4?Gy, ?50?=?0.9 and n?=?0.011 for the Niemierko model and BEUD3(50)?=?132?Gy, m?=?0.35 and n?=?0.012 for the Lyman Kutcher Burman model. The observed rates of fibrosis in the START-pilot trial agreed well with the predicted rates.Conclusions: this large multi-centre pooled study suggests that the effect of volume parameter is small and the maximum RT dose is the most important parameter to influence breast fibrosis. A small value of volume parameter ‘n’ does not fit with the hypothesis that breast tissue is a parallel organ. However, this may reflect limitations in our current scoring system of fibrosi

Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends

It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilization by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20 years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the “acid recovery DOC baseline” significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed using palaeolimnological techniques

Managing for nitrogen, the lesser of two evils. A response to Maes et al.

Letter to the Editor

Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA): framework and plan

First published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026319 on 19 June 2019INTRODUCTION:Australia's ageing population puts significant demands on the aged care and healthcare sectors. To monitor the provision of aged care and healthcare services to older people, each government body has an individual data collection system. Together these systems can be the basis for creating the evidence necessary to support future allocation of resources for our ageing community. The Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA) is a cross-sector multidisciplinary (ie, aged care and healthcare) platform built to address the challenges of monitoring people in aged care settings. This protocol describes the ROSA's framework and plans. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:A registry to capture 16 000 South Australians/year undergoing an aged care eligibility assessment was designed. ROSA will contain information captured by the Commonwealth and South Australian state Health Authority, linked by two data integrating authorities, and housed on a secured data platform. ROSA will contain information on the sociodemographic, health, function, psychological, social, home and safety assessment and concerns characteristics, aged care services, general health services, and mortality of people receiving aged care services. Registered participants will be prospectively monitored until their death and yearly updates of their aged care and healthcare services information will be added to the registry. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:ROSA will longitudinally monitor the services provided to a population that puts costly demands on the state healthcare and aged care systems, identify unwanted variation, and underpin future research. ROSA's expected outputs include an annual report, a research agenda that focuses on high burden conditions and potentially economically impactful questions, educational materials, and risk profiling tools. ROSA was approved by the South Australian Department for Health and Ageing HREC (HREC/17/SAH/125) and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare HREC (EO2018/2/429).Maria C Inacio, Sarah Catherine Elizabeth Bray, Craig Whitehead, Megan Corlis, Renuka Visvanathan, Keith Evans, Elizabeth C Griffith, Steve L Wesseling

Niche models for British plants and lichens obtained using an ensemble approach

Site-occupancy models that predict habitat suitability for plant species in relation to measurable environmental factors can be useful for conservation planning. Such models can be derived from large-scale presence–absence datasets on the basis of environmental observations or, where only floristic data are available, using plant trait values averaged across a plot. However, the estimated modelled relationship between species presence and environmental variables depends on the type of statistical model adopted and hence can introduce additional uncertainty. Authors used an ensemble-modelling approach to constrain and quantify the uncertainty because of the choice of statistical model, applying generalised linear models (GLM), generalised additive models (GAM), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Niche models were derived for over 1000 species of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens, representing a large proportion of the British flora and many species occurring in continental Europe. Each model predicts habitat suitability for a species in response to climate variables and trait-based scores (evaluated excluding the species being modelled) for soil pH, fertility, wetness and canopy height. An R package containing the fitted models for each species is presented which allows the user to predict the habitat suitability of a given set of conditions for a particular species. Further functions within the package are included so that these habitat suitability scores can be plotted in relation to individual explanatory variables. A simple case study shows how the R package (MultiMOVE) can be used quickly and efficiently to answer questions of scientific interest, specifically whether climate change will counteract any benefits of sheep-grazing for a particular plant community. The package itself is freely available via http://doi.org/10.5285/94ae1a5a-2a28-4315-8d4b-35ae964fc3b9

Health status and healthcare trends of individuals accessing Australian aged care programmes over a decade: the Registry of Senior Australians historical cohort

BACKGROUND:Understanding the health profile, service, and medicine use of Australians in the aged care sector will help inform appropriate service provision for our ageing population. AIMS:To examine the 2006-2015 trends in (1) co-morbidities and frailty of individuals accessing aged care and (2) health services, medicine use, and mortality after entry into long term care. METHODS:A cross-sectional and population-based trend analysis were conducted using the Registry of Senior Australians. RESULTS:From 2006-2015, 509,944 individuals accessed permanent residential care, 206,394 home care, 283,014 respite, and 124,943 transition care. Over this time, the proportion of individuals accessing permanent residential care with high frailty scores (≥0.3) increased (19.7% to 49.7%), as did the proportion with 5-9 co-morbidities (46.4% to 54.5%), with similar trends observed for those accessing other services. The median number of medicines dispensed in the year after entering permanent residential care increased from 9 (interquartile range (IQR) 6-12) to 10 (IQR 7-14), while remaining stable in home care (2006:9 IQR 5-12, 2015:9, IQR 6-13). Short-term (within 100 days) mortality in those accessing permanent care was higher in 2006 (15.6%, 95%CI 15.2-16.0%) than 2015 (14.6%, 95%CI 14.3-14.9%), while longer term (101-1095 days, 2006: 44.3%, 95%CI 43.7-45.0%, 2015: 46.4%, 95%CI 45.8-46.9%) mortality was higher. Mortality in individuals accessing home care did not change. CONCLUSION:The health of older Australians accessing aged care programs has declined while frailty increased, with an increasing use of medicine and worse long-term mortality in some. Funding and care models need to adapt to this changing profile.Maria C. Inacio, Catherine Lang, Sarah C. E. Bray, Renuka Visvanathan, Craig Whitehead, Elizabeth C. Griffith, Keith Evans, Megan Corlis and Steve Wesseling